Ukrainian troops refused to surrender and put up slogans.

According to reports, the British Ministry of Defence confirmed that Britain is providing modern laser-guided "Sulfur -2" missiles to Ukraine.

According to the related video, at least one pallet of high-precision missiles was transported from the RAF Norton base in Brisbane, Oxfordshire to an undisclosed airport.

The British Ministry of Defence said that these missiles are part of the British "aid plan" for Ukraine, confirming the "missile delivery" previously reported by the media.

Screenshot of video sent by British Ministry of Defence Twitter.

As early as about six months ago, Britain first provided Ukraine with the "sulfite-1" missile. The "sulfite-1" missile was upgraded in 2008 and changed to laser guidance.

The improved "sulfite -2" missile was put into use in 20 16, and its range is twice that of the old model. Its support system can guide it to hit the target by tracking the laser emitted by troops, planes or vehicles, or choose its own target by using extremely high-frequency millimeter-wave radar. The cost of each piece is about 654.38+075,000.

There is no doubt that Britain is trying to help Ukraine against the Russian army. The Ukrainian army will also modify trucks as a mobile launch platform for the "sulfite -2" missile.

In this regard, the Russian side issued a warning that as the United States, Britain and other NATO member States provide Ukraine with more and more advanced weapons, it may trigger a direct conflict between NATO and Russia.

Obviously, Britain obviously shrugged off this warning. NATO is also very arrogant. Recently, NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg once again claimed in an interview with the media that it is necessary to strengthen military support for Ukraine.

Some NATO countries have begun to take action, and Ukraine will also receive the mobile laboratory, the 10 unmanned submersible of ECA Robotics of Belgium and the Mantas T- 12 stealth unmanned ship of the United States in the near future. British "Neptune" WS-6 1 anti-submarine helicopter and other weapons.

Experts in Kiev believe that the new high-tech weapons manufactured according to NATO standards that Ukraine began to acquire will bring "possible results" to the Ukrainian army.

It is undeniable that with the military assistance of the United States and western countries, Ukraine has indeed gained a little more confidence. However, the Ukrainian crisis has lasted for more than nine months. At present, NATO, which supplies arms to Ukraine and constantly "fires", is caught in an embarrassing situation of insufficient ammunition.

NATO officials say that the Ukrainian army consumes thousands of shells every day. Camille Grande, an expert on national defense issues at the European Council on Foreign Relations, also vomited, "A day in Ukraine is equivalent to a month or more in Afghanistan."

According to relevant sources, among the 30 NATO countries, 20 countries can hardly provide military assistance to Ukraine.

Nevertheless, western countries can only grit their teeth and urgently look for Soviet-era weapons and equipment, such as S-300 air defense missiles and T-72 tanks, which can make Ukraine put into use immediately.

On the other hand, in order to replenish their ammunition depots, they also tried to buy ammunition from countries such as South Korea. Taking advantage of the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war and the booming arms market, South Korea signed an arms export contract of $654.38+07 billion this year with the advantages of fast supply and high cost performance.

In this regard, sources of American arms dealers call it "marketing blitzkrieg."

In a word, western countries are doing business at a loss. With the deepening of the war, Zelensky is more open than a lion, which has actually made many western countries feel dissatisfied.

In view of the current situation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, many people have speculated who is the final winner, but at least it can be judged that the western countries have entered a dilemma.

Extended reading:

Media: Zelensky's negotiation condition is almost unconditional Russian surrender.

Thematic map

Wang Yiwei/Wen 2022165438+1On October 22nd, the war between Russia and Ukraine entered its 272nd day.

Recently, the biggest attraction of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is that Russia frequently releases the signal of peace talks, and the United States and other western countries also persuade Ukraine to go to the negotiating table.

Faced with the pressure to promote talks, the Ukrainian side obviously resisted. President Zelensky put forward high-standard negotiation conditions, almost demanding unconditional Russian surrender. The Ukrainian military's attitude was even tougher and rejected all negotiation plans.

Even according to the British media Sky News 165438+ 10 19, Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister gavrilov predicted that the Ukrainian army might recapture the Crimean Peninsula before Christmas and end the fighting in early 2023. Russian media reported that there are not a few Ukrainian officials who hold similar views.

In all fairness, gavrilov's view is more like a propaganda strategy to boost morale, and its military feasibility is extremely low. Because the Ukrainian army is still assembled on the right bank of the Dnieper River, facing the Crimean Peninsula across the river, spanning most of the Russian-controlled Hellson, and there is only a land with a width of less than 10 km between Kherson and the Crimean Peninsula. It is too difficult for the Ukrainian army to cross the river, cross Kherson State and occupy Crimea through an area less than 65,438+00 kilometers.

On the contrary, whether the Russian army will launch a new round of winter offensive becomes a suspense.

The author concludes that there are several factors that may prompt the Russian army to launch a high-intensity offensive in Donbass.

First, promote talks through war.

It should be pointed out that negotiation is a strategy that Russia has never given up. Shortly after the start of the special military operation on February 24, Russia and Ukraine started negotiations, then interrupted them intermittently and then completely broke down. After the four states of Wudong and Wunan were incorporated into their territory by referendum, the negotiation signal sent by Russia became clearer. Launching a new round of battlefield offensive to really hurt Ukraine is one of the ways to push Ukraine to the negotiating table.

Second, 300,000 troops have been put in place one after another, and the weapons and equipment in the future have been guaranteed, and they have the material and personnel foundation to launch the winter offensive.

Russia issued a local mobilization order on September 2 1 day two months ago. Although the mobilization order triggered protests in some cities in China, it went smoothly on the whole, with 300,000 troops trained and put into battle one after another.

In addition, under the supervision of Russia's top management and the implementation of relevant measures, Russian military enterprises are making every effort to produce all kinds of weapons and equipment. Not long ago, Medvedev, former Russian president and current vice chairman of the Russian Federal Security Council, inspected the Ural Locomotive and Rolling Stock Factory. The video exposed by social media shows that the tank production line of this military factory is running at full capacity.

The latest news also shows that all Russian missile units have been replaced with modern "iskander -M" missile systems. Russia also plans to start mass production of three new types of UAVs in June+February, 5438.

This is the biggest difference between Russia and Ukraine. For maintaining the operation of the war machine, Russia has hematopoietic function, while Ukraine mainly relies on external blood transfusion.

Third, in order to achieve the established goals of special military operations.

As the saying goes, a great teacher makes a great teacher. The key reason for Russia's special military action is that the two states in Donbass region are independent and suppressed by Ukraine. Russia sent troops to protect the rights and interests of ethnic Russians in the region. After more than nine months of war, most of Lugansk region in Donbass region was occupied by Russian troops, while only half of Donetsk region was occupied. If the Russian army tries its best to occupy all the land in the two States of Donbass, it can be regarded as achieving the goal of special military operations.

To sum up, it is possible for Russia to launch a winter offensive. If Russia launches a winter offensive, the battlefield will be in Donetsk in all likelihood.

The problem is that since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in 20 14, the Ukrainian army has painstakingly operated in this area for eight years and established a solid defensive position to guard against the attack of the Russian army. In April and May of this year, the offensive and defensive battles of Azov Steel Plant in upor, Mali, shocked the whole world. Mali upor belongs to Donetsk. Therefore, Donetsk is a hard bone.

Will Russia launch a winter offensive?

Time will give the answer.

Copyright statement: The above contents are original works of Economic Observer, and the copyright belongs to Economic Observer. Without the authorization of Economic Observer, it is strictly forbidden to reprint or mirror, otherwise the relevant actors will be investigated for legal responsibility according to law. For copyright cooperation, please call 010-60910566-1260.

Director of Wang Yiwei Economic Observer Department

Director of the Overseas Department of Economic Observer, an expert on Taiwan Strait issues, has long been concerned about private economy, international trade and anti-dumping, and has also made in-depth observations on macroeconomics.