Chengdu property market: The strong will stay strong while the weak will be eliminated

Amidst the anxiety, hesitation, change and breakthrough, the Chengdu property market is rolling forward, and it has gone through an uneven first half of the year in the game of fire and ice and life. The phenomenon of "the strong will stay strong and the weak will be eliminated" became even more cruel and obvious in the first half of the year. In the Chengdu-wide sales list, real estate companies such as Blu-ray, Poly, Greenland, Longfor, and Vanke still maintain the momentum and set the main tone for the market. The appeal of high-quality products and excellent brands is particularly prominent at this time. At the same time, there are also "dark horses" who are innovative, change-oriented and determined to make breakthroughs. Enterprises such as Lanrun, Sino-Ocean, Swire, and Hongzhan have performed well, injecting fresh vitality into the property market. Who is leading the market in the first half of the year? Who is setting the tone for the property market? Which companies have won market recognition and deserve respect from the industry? Which sectors are facing difficulties and are struggling? West China Metropolis Daily and Ruili Data exclusively released the "2014 Property Market Semi-Annual Report", which is in-depth Analyze the changes in the property market in the first half of the year.

Sales performance

Blu-ray Poly continues to lead the top four "dark horse" projects

On July 1, Chengdu Transparent Real Estate Network released the "2014 Chengdu Property Market "Half-Year List", judging from the TOP20 list, local real estate company Blu-ray Group still "occupies the top spot" in terms of registered area and registered amount, followed closely by the state-owned Poly Group, and the performance of Zhixin Group and China Railway Second Bureau is remarkable. . It is worth mentioning that Zhixin Group’s ranking of registered area has risen from 4th last year to 3rd this year, and its ranking of registered amount has risen from 10th last year to 7th; the ranking of China Railway Second Bureau’s registered area The ranking rose from 7th to 4th last year, and the filing amount rose from 13th to 5th last year. The market performance of these two companies has always been relatively low-key, but their steady and steady style has successfully dealt with the situation. Market changes. It is worth noting that in the first half of this year, some new faces were added to the TOP20 list, namely, four real estate companies, Lanrun Group, Sino-Ocean Real Estate, Swire Properties, and Sichuan Wenzi Real Estate Development Investment Co., Ltd., have risen strongly and entered the TOP20 list one after another. Became a dark horse that attracted much attention in the first half of the year. Judging from the sales performance of individual projects, in the first half of 2014, InterContinental Spring Plaza ranked first in the number of units sold in Greater Chengdu with 1,464 units; Fantasia Fantasia City ranked first in the area of ??units sold in Greater Chengdu with 118,400 square meters; Greenland Center ranked first in the number of units sold in Greater Chengdu with 9.57 The total transaction value of 100 million yuan ranked first in Greater Chengdu. Longhu Qingcheng Courtyard ranked first in unit price in Greater Chengdu with an average transaction price of 26,219 yuan/㎡. These are mostly large-scale projects developed by brand-name real estate companies. With their high-end quality and complete supporting facilities, they have become the core of the region and naturally show their superior ability to attract money. However, according to a longitudinal comparison of data from previous years on the Chengdu Transparent Real Estate Network, the performance of companies on the list has generally declined. In the first half of 2014, the registered area of ??the top 20 real estate companies in Chengdu totaled 4.3839 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 10%. Sales totaled 36.016 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13%. Such results seem to confirm the depressed state of the property market this year. There are many reasons: for example, affected by the tightening of credit policies, the mortgage threshold has increased, the cost of loan purchase has increased, and the wait-and-see sentiment of home buyers has become stronger; furthermore, although the central bank in mid-May required banks to guarantee the first home There is demand for loans, but it is difficult to implement. Mortgage policies are still tight and have not stimulated property market transactions.

Residential market

The pace of listings has slowed down and Huayang has a large inventory in the south of the city

In the first half of the year, due to the shrinkage of market transaction volume, the wait-and-see sentiment of homebuyers increased, and the housing market's The keynote is that supply is slowing down and inventory is being eliminated. Whether in the main urban area or in suburban counties, developers have slowed down the pace of sales. The supply area of ??commercial housing in Greater Chengdu has dropped by more than 40% month-on-month and year-on-year, with the main focus being inventory reduction. According to Ruili data shows that in the first half of 2014, 128,000 units were sold in the Chengdu commercial housing market, with a transaction area of ??11.973 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 8.7% and a 10.8% decrease, respectively, and a year-on-year decrease of 19.3% and 22.4%. From the perspective of supply and sales trends, in the first half of 2014, the supply-to-sales ratio in Greater Chengdu was above 1.1 in January and April, and was lower than 1 in the other four months. The overall supply-to-sales ratio was 0.7, and the market was in a state of destocking.

In the competition among sectors, judging from the regional sector supply and sales data provided by Ruili Data, in terms of supply, the Yuanhua-Zhanhua sector in the High-tech Zone in the south of the city is the hot supply area, and the Guanghua Avenue and Pixian Old Town areas in the west of the city continue to increase their volume. , the north of the city has the 198 plate as the main supply area; at the same time, in the ranking of transaction volume, the south of the city is still led by Shuangliu City and Yuanhua-Zhanhua plates, the hot spots in the north of the city are concentrated in Dafeng and Xindu Old City, and the hot spots in the west of the city are Guanghua In the Avenue section, the east part of the city is concentrated in Sanshengxiang and Dapan sections. Therefore, among the new supply in various administrative regions, in the first half of 2014, suburban Shuangliu ranked first in Greater Chengdu with a supply of 1.313 million square meters. It is worth noting that among the "hot spots for stock registration", the areas with higher stocks in the Greater Chengdu market are mainly the Huayang section of the South Extension Line and the Yuanhua-Zhanhua section. In addition, the stocks of large blocks in the east of the city are also About 8 million square meters. In terms of product structure, it is worth noting that the transaction volume of 70-90㎡ products has the smallest decrease, and the proportion of transactions has further expanded. Analysis by Zhongcheng Real Estate believes that the release of the 90㎡ household restriction policy has stimulated the transactions of this type of products. From the perspective of the types of transaction products, high-level executives are in urgent need of small apartment products, and developers have increased promotions in exchange for volume and payment collection. Down, its transaction volume was relatively less affected by the downturn in the market, and its sales proportion increased; the transaction volume of improved large-family products fell more, and its sales proportion decreased.

Commercial market

Commercial projects expand outward and Xindu ranks first in sales

Chengdu International Financial Center IFS, Wenjiang Ito, Sunshine Industrial, Xiongfei Center, In the first half of 2014, China Railway Xicheng, Suning Plaza, and Shihao Plaza, seven large-scale complex projects opened in Chengdu, bringing a large amount of commercial supply and further intensifying competition in the commercial market. In the context of huge inventory and a sluggish market, the new supply of commercial properties has naturally decreased significantly, down 49.51% year-on-year. Among them, new supply in outer suburbs has seen the largest decline, down 77% year-on-year. It can be seen that when the market situation is sluggish, the outer suburbs with weak commercial facilities are the most affected. In terms of project layout, commercial properties show an obvious trend of outward expansion. Due to the gradual reduction in environmental restrictions, the third ring road and the surrounding city have the largest increase in new additions. Judging from the new supply of commercial properties in each ring area, new commercial properties in the main urban area in the first half of 2014 were concentrated in the third ring road to the surrounding city, which was also the area with the largest increase in the proportion of new additions. In terms of product form, LOFT has always been a commercial product that has attracted much attention. According to data analysis, in the first half of the year, the number of new additions and transactions in the Chengdu LOFT market fell sharply year-on-year. The overall supply-to-sales ratio was 0.61. The pressure to reduce inventory has eased. The current market accumulation The inventory has reached 558,000 square meters. Based on the average monthly sales since 2013, it will take 24 months to sell in the future, and the pressure to sell is huge. In terms of administrative regions, in the Chengdu LOFT market in the first half of 2014, the high-tech zone LOFT transaction volume ranked first. The stock has been reduced, but the volume is still huge. Competition in this region will further intensify in the future. In the battlefield of the main urban area, commercial properties continue to gather in the south, with new businesses in the south accounting for nearly half of the market. Judging from the new supply of commercial properties in various directions, due to the southward tilt of government planning, large-scale complexes have gathered in the south of the city. In the first half of 2014, the new supply of commercial properties in the main urban area mainly came from the south of the city, accounting for 174,000 square meters, accounting for 174,000 square meters of the total supply. 47%. Commercial property transactions are mainly concentrated in high-tech zones and Xindu. Judging from the transaction volume of commercial properties in various administrative regions, in the first half of 2014, the high-tech zone in the main urban area ranked first in transaction volume, with a transaction area of ??101,600 square meters, accounting for 13.48% of the total transactions, followed by Chenghua District; Xindu benefited from the "Northern Reform" The planning is favorable, and the transaction volume continues to rank first in the city, reaching 111,800 square meters, accounting for 14.84% of the total transactions. The article in this edition is written by Xiong Li, a reporter from West China Metropolis Daily

The land market is unevenly hot and cold, and real estate newcomers are aggressively acquiring land

In the first half of 2014, the turning point of the land market was announced. With the continued tightness of the capital chain and the decline in transaction volume, the main tone of real estate companies in acquiring land appears conservative. The cautious attitude is reflected in the data. In the first half of 2014, land supply, transaction volume, and real estate floor prices all declined. The overall land market showed an uneven state. High-priced land kings still appeared. At the same time, unsold auctions were frequent, and regional markets The differentiation is obvious.

However, the faces of some real estate companies still leave a deep impression on people in the land market. For example, the radical performance of real estate newcomers Luneng and New Oupeng has brought confidence to the property market and added excitement to the second half of the year.

Shuangliu ranks first in suburban land supply

According to data from Ruili, Chengdu’s land supply in the first half of 2014 was 6,777.36 acres, a slight decline in supply, a year-on-year decrease of 8.6%. ***A total of 91 transactions were completed, a year-on-year decrease of 29 transactions. In the first half of the year, 1,390 acres of land were unsold, and the total transaction volume dropped significantly, down 26.07% year-on-year. The transaction area was 5,357.52 acres, a year-on-year decrease of 1,901.85 acres, or a year-on-year decrease of 26%. The premium rate of residential land in Greater Chengdu reached 36.4%, a decrease of 5%. The premium rate of residential land in outer suburbs dropped the most, falling by 15.44%. In terms of land supply, suburban areas continue to be the main force in land transfer in Greater Chengdu, accounting for 45.8% of transactions. Among them, the Shuangliu area was a hot supply and marketing area in the first half of the year, with a supply of 3,046 acres and a transaction volume of 1,465 acres. The proportion of land transaction volume in the main urban area increased, rising by 5.2%. Jinjiang District and Chenghua District are at the forefront of the main urban areas in terms of land volume, and Shuangliu in the suburbs ranks first in land supply, but the unsold rate is 44%; Qingyang District dominates with an average floor price of 6,105 yuan/㎡; Wenjiang and Shuangliu in suburban counties have floor prices The highest, reaching more than 1,200 yuan/㎡, but the land price of Shuangliu fell 44% year-on-year in 2013. Data analysis shows that with the increasing maturity of its regional commercial facilities and the further release of product market demand, Shuangliu has become a key land acquisition area for developers within Greater Chengdu in the first half of the year.

Sichuan developers are expanding rapidly

In the first half of 2014, local developers in Sichuan accelerated their expansion in Chengdu and were more active in acquiring land. Among them, local developers such as Lanrun and Shengshi Huangchao Real estate companies are particularly bright. Industry analysts believe that developers started in secondary cities in Sichuan, represented by Lanrun, Territory, Ganghe, and Bangtai, have been very active in recent years, acquiring land frequently and launching multiple projects at the same time, overshadowing local real estate companies in Chengdu. , a very important reason is that when foreign developers entered Chengdu in large numbers to occupy the market, many local developers in Chengdu withdrew from the mainstream market due to lack of funds, while developers in secondary cities were completing primitive accumulation at this stage. With sufficient funds and secondary city projects as the backing, these real estate companies began to expand in Chengdu, so they performed very conspicuously in the land market. In the ranking of companies acquiring land in Chengdu in 2014 by area and amount, Luneng and New Oupeng were very eye-catching. They were more aggressive in acquiring land in the first half of the year. Their actions of spending heavily to acquire land gave a boost to the sluggish market. In addition, in the list of transaction area, Xinglu Real Estate ranked first with 407 acres of land acquired. Tianfu New District Investment Group and Wanda Real Estate ranked second and third respectively with 278 acres and 258 acres of land acquired. Ranking by amount, Evergrande ranks first in terms of land acquisition amount with a total land acquisition amount of 2.914 billion yuan. Luneng and New Oupeng ranked second and third with total land acquisitions of 2.589 billion yuan and 1.839 billion yuan respectively; in the ranking of low-price real estate, Huixin Rongtong ranked first with a unit price of 10,280 yuan/㎡. Yibin Luneng ranked second with a unit price of 9,350 yuan/㎡, and won the Tiaodenghe Huaishudian land plot with a price of 2.589 billion yuan, winning the total price king. However, real estate companies such as Blu-ray, Greenland, China Railway Construction and Poly that were active in acquiring land last year acquired less land in the first half of the year due to their sufficient land reserves. The performance of these traditional buyers in the second half of the year is exciting.

Regional competition is fierce and Chenghua’s stock ranks first

According to data from Ruili, the land stock in Greater Chengdu has grown faster than in 2013, rising by 28.3%, of which commercial land stock has doubled. above. The areas with the largest stock of land in the main urban area are concentrated in Chenghua District and Jinniu District. Benefiting from the "Northern Reform" plan, the largest amount of land has been reorganized and reorganized in the old city, becoming the main land supply in the main urban area. Among them, Chenghua District ranks first among the main urban areas with a total stock of 1,283.39 acres. From a regional perspective, it is ideal to eliminate the existing residential land in main urban areas, with half of the existing land being eliminated in the first half of the year. Shuangliu in the suburbs has the largest land stock, with a total stock of 3131.37 acres. Both residential and commercial land stock ranks first. The suburban real estate market has been greatly affected by the market downturn, and the land stock has increased rapidly. The total land stock in the outer suburbs of Greater Chengdu is the largest, reaching 12,296.57 acres, exceeding that in the inner suburbs. As the risk-resistance ability of outer suburban markets is even worse, it will be extremely difficult to de-regulate the region in the future.

In the current situation where the overall market is still sluggish, Chengdu's real estate market development has a tendency to move from the suburbs to the main urban area, and the stock of residential land in the main urban area has decreased by more than 50%. Due to the excessive land stock in the region, many land launches were passed over in the first half of the year. It is expected that the market competition in this region will be very fierce in the future. The sales rate of high-risk sectors is "red light" and these areas are worrying

According to the analysis of supply, sales and stock data of regional sectors in the Chengdu property market in the first half of 2014 provided by Ruili Data, the sales capacity of the following sectors is relatively worrying. , becoming a high-risk area for sales. Red light plate The red light plate has always been relatively deserted among the major sectors of the Chengdu property market. In the statistics of the first half of 2014, the new supply here was 53295.03 square meters, the transaction record was 40269.95 square meters, and the stock was actually It reached 127138.89 square meters. This has clearly reflected that the sector's ability to sell properties is quite weak, supporting facilities cannot keep up, and the sector's low popularity has resulted in the dilemma of difficulty in selling houses. The Yongning sector saw 40,572.1 square meters of new supply in the first half of the year, and sales registrations were only 22,912.76 square meters. The current inventory is as high as 129,776.56 square meters. This data also makes the sell-through rate of this sector worrying. The main product of this segment is villas. Affected by the overall decline in the villa market, sales in this area are facing difficulties. In 2014, there were 17 projects for sale in the Washington Segment. Based on the sales targets set at the beginning of the year, the total sales amount of the projects on sale in the Washington Sector this year was approximately 12.65 billion yuan. If calculated based on the average registered price of 6,129 yuan/square meter in Washington in 2013, if real estate companies in the sector are to complete the annual sales task of 12.65 billion yuan in 2014, within one year, the registered sales area in the Washington sector must achieve nearly 250% growth. However, putting aside the astronomical figures, the sector has to face the "skinny" reality. At present, the sector has a serious lack of supporting facilities, lack of popularity, and rampant marketing. How to increase sales has become a problem that plagues many developers.