Carbon neutrality - the biggest opportunity in the next 40 years (2)

my country’s dual carbon goals are to peak carbon before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. This goal is the most demanding compared to several major economies in the world. Time is of the essence.

In my country’s current energy structure, non-fossil energy accounts for only 15.9%, clean energy (including hydropower) power generation accounts for 36%, and coal accounts for 52%.

In order to help achieve the dual carbon goals, on the energy supply side, increasing the proportion of renewable energy in power supply and terminal consumption is the most effective way to achieve the dual carbon goals.

However, renewable energy on the power supply side, represented by wind power and photovoltaics, are highly volatile and cannot provide continuous and stable power. This leads to the next problem that needs to be solved - energy storage.

2.1 The necessity of energy storage

In recent years, as the cost of photovoltaic modules has further dropped, photovoltaic power stations have become profitable without subsidies, and a large amount of capital has poured into the photovoltaic industry. From production to operation, the scale of the entire photovoltaic industry has grown significantly, but it has also brought about a problem, that is, photovoltaics can only generate electricity during the day, what should we do at night? The fan can only rotate when there is wind, but what happens when there is no wind?

Daily wind speed fluctuates greatly

As the proportion of electricity consumption from renewable energy sources (wind power and photovoltaics) continues to increase, the instability of wind power and photovoltaics brings not only It is a short-term power outage. The impact of its fluctuation on the power grid will cause changes in the power flow of the distribution network, affect the power quality (voltage, frequency, waveform), and have a great impact on both the grid side and the user side.

Ten years ago, when the power grids in various places were not as powerful as they are now, power grid companies have always refused to waste electricity such as wind power and photovoltaics. This is why in provinces with less electricity consumption , there are many cases of abandonment of wind, abandonment of light and power rationing.

By storing the short-term over-generated (unused) electricity and continuously outputting this part of the electricity to the Internet when there is no electricity (at night or when there is no wind), you can avoid the above situation. .

2.2 How to make energy storage profitable

Energy storage has always been a political task because it cannot make money, but now the technology has reached the bottleneck of making profits, and the country has begun to invest in energy storage. The industry is on fire.

A few days later, a policy to increase time-of-use electricity prices was introduced:

The purpose of the document is to continue to increase the price of electricity during flat-peak and peak periods. The difference in electricity prices can reach 4 times. Both of these documents, explicitly and covertly, encourage the development of the energy storage industry. On the eve of technological change, policies are being stepped up layer by layer. It is believed that it is only a matter of time before the energy storage industry achieves full profitability.

At present, the energy storage power stations on the grid-connected side of large-scale power stations have been able to achieve profitability in terms of financial calculations. However, based on the current price difference between peak and valley power, the profitability is about the same as that of deposits.

2.3 Grid-side energy storage

The main function of grid-side energy storage is peak regulation and frequency regulation to ensure the quality of users’ power consumption. The most common method used for peak regulation and frequency regulation is water pumping. Energy storage power station.

On August 6, the General Affairs Department of the National Energy Administration issued a letter soliciting comments on the "Mid- and Long-term Development Plan for Pumped Hydropower Storage (2021-2035)" (Draft for Comments), proposing that by 2035, my country's pumped water storage The installed energy storage capacity will increase to 300 million kilowatts, an increase of 10 times compared with 2020, far exceeding market expectations. Previously, the industry expected that my country's total installed capacity of pumped hydropower storage would reach 113 million kilowatts in 2030 and 180 million kilowatts by the end of 2060. This means that the overall plan for production by 2030 will far exceed the previous target of 2060. Pumped hydro energy storage is facing a window of development.

The commissioning of large-scale pumped storage power stations will greatly enhance the peak shaving capacity of the existing power grid, increase the power grid's ability to absorb renewable energy, and ultimately increase the share of clean energy in my country's power grid. Compare.

Pumped storage is currently the most mature mainstream energy storage technology with the largest installed capacity. It has the lowest cost of electricity among various energy storage technologies. As shown in the figure above, a pumped storage power station consists of two highly different It is composed of reservoirs. The upper and lower reservoirs are connected by a water delivery system and a generator set.

During the low load period of the power grid, the power station uses cheap valley electricity to pump water from the lower reservoir to the upper reservoir for storage, which is to convert electrical energy into gravitational potential energy. When the grid load reaches its peak, the power station releases the water stored in the upper reservoir to generate electricity, so that the electricity can be sold at a high price.

The disadvantages of pumped storage power stations are also obvious. They are greatly affected by terrain. In complex terrain, the construction cost will rise significantly. The construction period will last about 5-8 years. Moreover, after the power station is completed, due to the long Long-distance pipeline transportation and multiple hydraulic turbines result in high mechanical energy loss and energy storage efficiency of about 70%.

At present, major local power grid companies are mainly engaged in the construction of pumped storage power stations in China. The design, construction or general contractor required for the construction of power stations is almost monopolized by one central enterprise - Power Construction Corporation of China.

Power Construction Corporation of China includes almost all the leading hydropower design institutes in China, the most famous of which is the East China Survey and Design Institute in Hangzhou, whose annual revenue is over 10 billion , surpassing most listed companies.

Its pumped hydro energy storage market share has reached 80% domestically and 50% globally. It can be said to be the well-deserved No. 1 hydropower construction company in China.

The main equipment of a pumped storage power station is a hydraulic turbine. In this regard, traditional steam turbine factories have relatively strong capabilities, such as Dongfang Electric and Harbin Electric. However, as a mature power generation equipment, the technology of hydraulic turbines is already relatively mature. , there is little premium in price.

2.3 Power-side energy storage

2.3.1 Other forms of energy storage

Pumped storage power station is a type of mechanical energy storage, and other more mature mechanical There are other energy storage methods: flywheel energy storage, compressed air energy storage, etc.

According to different energy storage media, energy storage can also be divided into electrochemical energy storage, chemical energy storage, thermal energy storage and electromagnetic energy storage. However, as of now, mechanical energy storage is still the most mature among them. , the lowest cost energy storage method.

The application of electrochemical energy storage is currently the most widespread and promising. The core component of the new energy vehicle industry chain, the power battery is an application of electrochemical energy storage. According to different media, it can be divided into lithium Ion batteries, lead-acid batteries, sodium-ion batteries, etc.

The concept of chemical energy storage is simple, but the operation process is extremely complex. As the name implies, it converts electrical energy into chemical energy and stores it. The most common one is electrolysis of water to produce hydrogen.

A typical application of thermal energy storage is a photothermal power station. After gathering sunlight, the molten salt as the medium is melted, absorbing a large amount of heat. The molten salt then continues to heat water to form water vapor, which drives the steam turbine to generate electricity. . After the sun goes down, the power station can continue to use the heat stored in the molten salt to generate electricity. CSP power stations are one of the few new energy power stations that can provide stable energy supply.

Rendering of a 50MW solar thermal power station

Electromagnetic energy storage mainly includes superconducting energy storage, capacitor energy storage, supercapacitor energy storage, etc. Its energy storage efficiency is high, but the distance Practical applications are still quite far away.

At present, the energy storage on the power supply side is mainly electrochemical energy storage and chemical energy storage, which correspond to two types of power stations: grid-connected power stations and distributed power stations.

2.3.2 Electrochemical energy storage

Currently, new centralized (grid-connected) new energy power stations in various places require adaptive energy storage. This part of energy storage is mainly for Energy storage is used when new energy power stations fluctuate greatly. Since the on-grid electricity prices of centralized power stations are fixed, there is no profit from the difference in peak and valley electricity prices. The main purpose is to increase the power station's on-grid power and increase the power station's revenue.

At the same time, on the grid side, a large number of energy storage power stations have also been launched. Their functions are the same as pumped hydro storage, peak and frequency regulation, and their profit model is to buy low and sell high power.

The picture is taken from a research report of a securities company

This part of energy storage is mainly electrochemical energy storage, and the more promising ones in electrochemical energy storage are: lithium-ion batteries and sodium ion battery.

Taking lithium-ion batteries as a representative, let’s briefly talk about the advantages and disadvantages of electrochemical energy storage:

1. Costs are falling rapidly

Driven by favorable policies , the cost per kilowatt hour of lithium batteries has dropped rapidly in recent years. There are already mature applications of lithium battery energy storage power stations. Under certain electricity price conditions, the internal rate of return (IRR) of energy storage power stations can reach 8%, which is enough for most Minimum standards for projects invested by state-owned enterprises and central enterprises.

2. Almost not constrained by site conditions

Chemical energy storage requires a larger site and higher safety production standards, while lithium battery energy storage has a relatively low energy density and small volume. It is also smaller and has lower site requirements. It is suitable for use in industrial parks, charging stations, high-end instruments and equipment, etc.

3. Cost reduction may enter a bottleneck

Lithium ore resources are limited. It is foreseeable that according to the current development speed, in the near future, lithium batteries will suffer from rising prices of upstream materials. And entering the bottleneck, the cost of electricity per kilowatt-hour of lithium batteries cannot maintain the current downward trend.

4. The improvement of energy density has reached a bottleneck

Although the energy density of lithium batteries has been greatly improved in the past few years, compared with the amount of energy used by humans, , is still too small, and the rate of increase in lithium battery energy density does not increase exponentially like semiconductors, but slowly increases in proportion. The increase in lithium battery energy density may not keep up with human demand for energy storage capacity.

The advantage of sodium-ion batteries compared to lithium-ion batteries is that they are low in cost, and the reserves of sodium are much greater than those of lithium (the proven reserves are about 420 times that of lithium). There is the possibility of large-scale application in the future. However, the current number of rechargeable and dischargeable sodium-ion batteries is still low, the energy density is small, and it is not yet economical.

The advantage of lithium batteries is that with the popularity of new energy vehicles, the power batteries equipped in future electric vehicles can continue to be used as energy storage batteries after they are retired.

In the field of electrochemical energy storage, CATL is the well-deserved absolute leader. Not only has it recently released sodium-ion batteries, but its interim report shows that CATL’s energy storage business has grown by more than 20% compared to 2020. 7 times.

From the experience of CATL, we can predict that the future electrochemical energy storage market will be extremely broad.

2.3.3 Chemical energy storage

Chemical energy storage is mainly based on hydrogen production and storage. For hydrogen energy storage, the more direct profit model is to invest in new distributed distributed energy storage systems by chemical companies. Photovoltaic power stations use photovoltaics to produce hydrogen, and hydrogen is the raw material for most chemical companies, such as hydrogen to produce ethylene.

In areas with good lighting conditions and rich water resources, chemical companies can easily reduce manufacturing costs and thereby make profits.

In addition, offshore wind power hydrogen production is used in coastal chemical plants, and water electrolysis to produce hydrogen and methanol is used as fuel cell fuel. The profitability depends entirely on natural conditions (wind/light resources and transportation pipelines). length).

The analysis of the hydrogen energy industry chain will not be expanded on due to the length of the article. Those who are interested can read previous articles. In the future, the construction of distributed power stations with new energy + hydrogen energy storage must be an important development direction. :

The future is still far away - a brief analysis of the hydrogen energy industry chain

2.4 User-side energy storage

User-side energy storage is currently dominated by electrochemical energy storage , with the popularity of electric vehicles on the application side, the demand gap for user-side energy storage will become larger and larger.

Let’s do a simple calculation: Many people now use electric cars. If an electric car uses fast charging, it can reach 75% of its power in about 1 hour, and the power of the charging pile is about It is 100-200kw, that is, 100 to 200 kilowatt-hours of electricity per hour. Before electric vehicles were fully popularized, this small amount of power only sprinkled water on the power grid.

But if electric vehicles are fully popularized in a small 18th-tier county with a population of hundreds of thousands (millions), and thousands (millions) of vehicles are charging at the same time, the instantaneous power will reach a terrifying level. value, most county-level power grids cannot withstand the impact of such high power.

Therefore, some distributed charging pile operating companies have emerged, such as Kuaibu Technology invested by CATL, which focuses on integrated storage, charging and inspection operations.

Combining photovoltaics, electrochemical energy storage, and charging piles can not only significantly reduce the operating costs of charging stations (no need to buy electricity from the grid), but also shorten the construction approval time of charging stations ( No grid distribution license is required), but the addition of new photovoltaic components and electrochemical energy storage equipment will also significantly increase the construction cost of charging stations.

There are many other user-side applications, such as large equipment UPS, industrial park energy storage power stations, etc., so I won’t give examples one by one.

There are various forms of energy storage. Here we mainly analyze the most promising electrochemical energy storage industry chain.

3.1 Principle of electrochemical energy storage system

Among them, PCS: energy storage converter, connects the battery system and the power grid to achieve bidirectional conversion of DC and AC power.

BMS: Battery management system, used for battery charge and discharge management.

BS: Battery pack, core component, the main cost is the battery.

EMS: Energy Management System.

The cost of the electrochemical energy storage system is shown in the figure above. EPC refers to the proportion of the general contracting fee for the construction of the electrochemical energy storage power station to the cost. It can be seen that the battery cost accounts for more than half of the entire system. , followed by PCS energy storage converter, and these two are also the sectors with the highest technical content and the thickest barriers in the energy storage system.

3.2 Leaders in each sector

Representative companies of energy storage batteries: CATL, Peneng Technology, BYD, and Yiwei Lithium Energy.

CATL: The undisputed absolute leader. The interim report shows that the energy storage business has increased by more than 7 times year-on-year, and it has absolute say in the battery field.

Everview Lithium Energy: It has developed rapidly in 5G and wind and solar power station energy storage, but it still ranks first among second-tier battery manufacturers.

BYD: Covers the entire industry chain, has deep technology accumulation, and is outstanding in overseas markets. However, its main business is complete vehicles, and the flexibility of its energy storage business may be average.

Paineng Technology: The energy storage business is pure, focusing on user-side energy storage, and the current performance is average.

PCS (energy storage inverter): Sungrow, GoodWe, Ginlang Technology

Sungrow: the dual leader in energy storage inverters and energy storage systems, in the world The inverter market is in a leading position.

GoodWe: Similar to Paineng Technology, it focuses on the user-side energy storage inverter market.

Jinlang Technology: A new player in the inverter field. Within a few years of its development, it has captured a lot of the domestic market from Sungrow, and the market outlook is promising.

System integration: Shenghong Co., Ltd.

EPC: Yongfu Co., Ltd. is rubbish. It is just a broken design institute. If CATL had not taken a stake, it would have been a scumbag.

Today’s article is a bit long, and the industrial chain part is a bit simpler. So far, with the support of policies, energy storage has just been able to meet the investment needs of state-owned enterprises (probably with a higher rate of return than regular ones) , still far from a full-blown outbreak.

If you want to invest in the field of energy storage, the first to explode are the batteries and inverters with the highest value. As for the others, try not to touch them.