Shenzhen property market is shaking! The money to save the enterprise is used for real estate speculation? Central bank emergency notice: inspection

Behind the hot property market is another big shock in Shenzhen, which is related to the illegal inflow of operating loan funds into real estate.

Shenzhen's new housing market and second-hand housing in key areas continue to be hot, causing heated discussion. Many viewpoints believe that the illegal inflow of mortgage funds supporting small and medium-sized enterprises into the real estate market is an important reason for the outbreak of the Shenzhen property market this round.

Regulators have noticed this phenomenon, and today there are two news related to it, which has aroused strong concern in the market.

First, there are rumors that the CBRC working group came to Shenzhen yesterday to learn about the illegal inflow of SME support funds into the real estate market.

Secondly, the screenshot of the notice issued by China People's Bank Shenzhen Zhongzhi Monetary Credit Office was widely circulated on the Internet, asking all commercial banks to urgently investigate the illegal inflow of housing loan funds into the real estate market.

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Shenzhen Branch of the Central Bank requires banks to check the flow of mortgage loans and operating loans.

On April 20th, China, a brokerage firm, confirmed from many sources that the Shenzhen Central Sub-branch of the People's Bank of China had issued a notice to all commercial banks within its jurisdiction on April 20th to urgently investigate the illegal housing loan funds flowing into the real estate market. The circular calls for self-inspection of the newly issued housing mortgage loans this year (including the borrowers being enterprises or individuals), including before, during and after the loan.

According to this circular, the China People's Bank Shenzhen Zhongzhi Monetary and Credit Department requires all commercial banks in Shenzhen to immediately conduct self-inspection on the newly issued mortgage loans this year (including the borrowers being enterprises or individuals), including but not limited to the following points:

1. As of the end of March 2020, your mortgage balance was 20 19 at the end of March and 20 19 at the end of February;

2. Access before lending. Investigate the authenticity of the business entity under the borrower's name, the time when the borrower holds the mortgaged property and the time when the enterprise is established;

3. Loan management. Focus on sorting out the loan situation of borrowers (including enterprises or individuals) who have newly purchased real estate (including houses and business apartments) and used the newly purchased real estate as collateral since the outbreak (65438+125 October), as well as the planned application for financial discount and the estimated actual loan interest rate level;

4. Post-loan management. Monitoring the new real estate after the borrower's loan;

5, self-examination found other suspicious circumstances or problems.

Ding Song, director of the Tourism and Real Estate Research Center of China (Shenzhen) Comprehensive Development Research Institute, said in an interview with the reporter of Securities Times E Company that the illegal inflow of mortgage funds into the real estate market is at least an important reason for this round of Shenzhen property market boom. The relevant departments first require commercial banks to conduct self-examination, which is a face-saving, not so passive, but also a deterrent.

02

Shenzhen "second CD" reappears, and the epidemic makes the bubble more rigid?

Statistics from the Bureau of Statistics show that in March, the number of cities in 70 large and medium-sized cities with rising prices of new and second-hand houses increased significantly. Second-hand housing prices rose in 32 cities, an increase of 18 cities compared with February, and Shenzhen returned to the first place in the increase of second-hand housing prices after two years.

Since March 2020, Shenzhen real estate developers have resumed their work in an all-round way, and launched 10 new sites in one breath, namely Fangzhi Warehouse, Evergrande City, Yuefu Garden, Zhongjun Yunjingfu, Qianwan Merchants, Vanke Star City, Zhonghai Wanjin Xi 'an Hua Ting, Aon Metropolitan Center, China Merchants Prince Bay and Shengdijia Haili Building.

During the epidemic, pent-up housing demand was stimulated. Among them, China Merchants Prince Wan Wanxi Mansion Project, Vanke Star City and other projects were all snapped up and sold out at the beginning of the opening.

According to the data of Shenzhen Zhongyuan Research Center, in March 2020, 3 152 sets of new houses were sold in Shenzhen, up 279.8% from the previous month. The transaction area was 324,000 square meters, up 279.9% from the previous month, and the number and area of transactions were the highest since 2020.

According to a survey by a reporter from China, the main force of this wave of buying houses comes from some business owners. According to industry insiders, the main reason for the recent surge in housing prices in Shenzhen is that business owners can use it as a low-interest mortgage loan after buying a house in full. This arbitrage model may be related to the "Measures for the Implementation of Discounted Loans for SMEs" issued by the local government during the epidemic.

Li Xunlei, chief economist of Zhongtai Securities, commented that during the epidemic, the prevention and control of economic risks was put in the first place, and the stability of the property market was the common interest of local governments, developers, financial institutions and homeowners. So the epidemic makes the bubble more rigid, but it is only a matter of time before it will burst.

03

LPR "cut interest rates" is coming! Will house prices continue to rise?

On April 20th, the National Interbank Funding Center announced the latest loan market quotation rate (LPR), in which 1 year LPR was reduced from 4.05% to 3.85%, with a reduction rate of 20BP；; The five-year LPR is reduced from 4.75% to 4.65% by 10BP. This is the second time that LPR has been lowered during the year, and the rate cut is the largest since the LPR reform in August last year, which is in line with market expectations.

Source: screenshot of the website of the National Interbank Funding Center

Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, said that the Politburo meeting once again reiterated the position of "housing and not speculating", and the LPR only decreased by 10 basis point over five years, which reflected the continuity and stability of the real estate financial policy and was conducive to promoting the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.

Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, believes that greater monetary easing in the future will effectively stimulate domestic consumption and investment and hedge the potential impact of overseas epidemics. To this end, the policy interest rate system including MLF will move down in the next step. This also means that there is still room for downside in LPR quotation in the short term, and the possibility of downside again in the second quarter is not ruled out.

Dong Ximiao, a special researcher at the National Finance and Development Laboratory, believes that personal housing loans account for a relatively high proportion of loans over five years, and the asymmetric decline does not mean that there is no signal of relaxation to the real estate market.

04

The Politburo meeting set the tone, and then asked for a room to live without speculation!

On April 17, the central meeting pointed out that it is necessary to adhere to the position that houses are used for living, not for speculation, and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.

At this Politburo meeting, the orientation of the house is still "hold on to speculation", which was rarely mentioned in several important Politburo meetings this year.

Li Qilin, chief economist of Yuekai Securities, believes that this may be related to the fact that the real estate market is prone to skyrocketing housing prices in a wide currency and credit environment. For example, in Shenzhen and other places recently, there has been an embarrassing situation of unemployment and skyrocketing housing prices.

After years of development mode of real estate and land-driven economy, high housing prices have gradually changed from the positive role of wealth effect in promoting consumption in the early stage to the negative impact of debt effect squeezing consumption. If the money flows into the real estate market again under the loose policy environment, which leads to the skyrocketing housing prices, not only will the loose money "go astray", but also the asset price bubble, consumption and the quality of life of residents will further decline, greatly reducing the policy effect of boosting consumption and stabilizing the economy.

Therefore, this time, even in the face of the major challenge of stabilizing the economy and ensuring employment, the policy options to stimulate real estate will not be fully rolled out. It may be the next choice for real estate market regulation to implement structured regulation policies because of the city's policy.

This article is synthesized from: Securities Times, a securities broker in China, Guan Wei of E Company, Panorama Finance, 2 1 Century Business Herald, Li Xunlei Investment and Finance, and Guangdong and Lin Kai Research.