New mortgage regulations and credit changes: Pratt & Whitney has become a hard indicator, and bond replacement housing enterprises have new tricks.

For banks, the preparations for the 20021start from June 5438+00, 2020, and personal housing loans and housing loans are the key quality businesses in traditional banking business. On June 5438+00, the floodgate should have been opened, and the sprint stage suddenly tightened, which will inevitably affect the whole good opening pattern.

Following the "three red lines" of real estate financing, the new regulations on real estate loans set two red lines for banks.

On June 5438+February 3, 20201day, after the A-share market closed, the Central Bank and the China Banking Regulatory Commission issued the Centralized Management System for Real Estate Loans of Banking Financial Institutions, which divided banks into five grades and set up "two red lines" indicators with their own characteristics. The first red line is the proportion of real estate loans, which refers to the proportion of all real estate loans (including personal housing loans and corporate mortgages) of a bank to all its loans. The second red line is the proportion of individual housing loans, that is, the balance of individual housing loans accounts for the proportion of all loans of a bank. This means that both personal mortgage loans and housing loans are completely restricted.

According to the research report of Guo Sheng Securities, according to the statistical data disclosed in the 2020 interim report, 13 banks "stepped on the line" to varying degrees. The timing coincides with the start of credit in 20021year. Will it be robbed or not? How to rush?

According to the reporter of 2 1 Century Business Herald, the new regulations on real estate loans are quite sudden for front-line practitioners. Although the internal policy adjustment of the bank has not been completed, the new regulations have also given a transition period of 2-4 years, but the impact has already appeared. The credit of 202 1 must be unusual.

The pressure of stepping on the line is not small.

According to the research report of Guo Sheng Securities, the above-mentioned 13 listed banks are mainly small and medium-sized banks.

The central bank and the China Banking Regulatory Commission divide banks into five grades in the above management system, of which the first grade is large Chinese banks; The second file is Chinese medium-sized banks; The third file is small Chinese banks and non-county agricultural cooperative institutions; The fourth file is the county agricultural cooperation organization; The fifth gear is the village bank.

According to the statistics of Guo Sheng Securities, the individual housing loans of ICBC, CCB, BOC and Postal Savings Bank accounted for 33.7 1%, 36.73%, 39. 19% and 33.64% respectively, exceeding the upper limit by 32.5%. The total real estate loans of CCB and BOC accounted for 465,438+0.72% and 50.065,438+0% respectively, exceeding the upper limit by 40%. Among the second-tier banks, the total personal housing loans of China Merchants Bank, China CITIC Bank and Industrial Bank accounted for 25.49%, 20.83% and 26.93% respectively, exceeding the upper limit by 20%; The real estate loans of China Merchants Bank, China CITIC Bank, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank and Industrial Bank accounted for 34.25%, 28.06%, 28.73% and 35.30% respectively, exceeding the upper limit by 27.5%. Among the third-tier banks, Hangzhou Bank, Chengdu Bank, Bank of Zhengzhou Bank, Qingdao Bank and Qingnong Bank all stepped on the line to varying degrees.

According to statistics, among the big banks, Bank of China is under greater pressure to reduce the scale of real estate loans, while among joint-stock banks, China Merchants Bank and Xingye are under greater pressure.

A public credit business person in the southwest of a big bank told 2 1 Century Business Herald that the big bank has generally reduced its loans to housing enterprises for a long time, and the approval has been very strict. The new regulations are good for the big bank.

The person further stated that the new regulations are mainly aimed at increments, and there are not many new branches in the region, and the pressure is not great. In addition, the new regulations control the progress of shares, and the competition will not be as disorderly as in the past. The banks that made development loans before were China Merchants Bank, Zheshang and a local city commercial bank. In addition, CITIC and China Everbright also entered a deeper stage.

According to the reporter of 265438+20th Century Business Herald, compared with big banks, stock banks generally approve faster, which is more attractive to many housing enterprises. For the big banks with small increments and tight control, the new regulations are beneficial to the follow-up business to a certain extent, but for the big banks that step on the line, the pressure to control the scale is not small.

A credit business person of a big bank in North China told the 265438+20 th Century Business Herald that the scale of both public and private businesses is now affected. The reason why regional branches didn't step on the line is that they haven't developed real estate business for four years, and secondary branches only have four new projects this year. Now centralized examination and approval, the quota is running out. However, local real estate developers in third-and fourth-tier cities are greatly affected by the "three red lines" control, which has a greater impact on mortgage loans.

A credit business person from a branch of China Merchants Bank in South China told 2 1 Century Business Herald that real estate loans have indeed tightened, especially for corporate loans, but the pressure to digest the stock is not too great. He pointed out from the perspective of peers that CITIC has made great efforts in real estate loan business in recent years, with the rapid growth of mortgage and corporate capital, and the pressure is even greater from the perspective of digesting "orders".

A good start to braking.

For banks, the preparations for the 20021start from June 5438+00, 2020, and personal housing loans and housing loans are the key quality businesses in traditional banking business. On June 5438+00, the floodgate should have been opened, and the sprint stage suddenly tightened, which will inevitably affect the whole good opening pattern.

A number of bank credit business people told the 2 1 Century Business Herald that the new regulations and policies have not been specifically implemented, and the preconditions for loan approval still continue in the past. However, in controlling the scale, the direct performance is that the housing-related loans are not rushed, and the most obvious change is the mortgage.

A real estate agent in South China told the reporter of 2 1 Century Business Herald that there are more than 100 customers in several buildings it is responsible for, and the mortgage loan from 65438 to February 2020 has been approved and is waiting for the loan. I thought the quota of 202 1 would be much looser. I didn't expect the branch presidents of several big mortgage banks to say that the quota was very tight. Now many developers line up to ask the bank for a quota, and it is difficult for a clever woman to cook without rice.

A retail credit business person of a second-tier branch of a "stepping on the line" stock bank told 2 1 Century Business Herald that the new regulations on real estate loans were suddenly promulgated, which caught them off guard. June 5438+ 10 is a crucial period for the sprint to get off to a good start, but these 20 days have been extremely embarrassing.

The source said that after the introduction of the policy, there was no clear "no rush" mortgage policy within the bank. As front-line business personnel, they can only rush, stop, dare not do, and dare not do too much. Until a week ago, the bank's mortgage business entered the stage of loan suspension.

When it comes to a good start, this person is even more helpless. The new regulations have a great influence on his department. Retail loans mainly include mortgage loans, consumer loans and credit loans, but the retail loan structure has different regional characteristics. The regional mortgage of his branch has always been a big head. Consumer loans are basically online now, and credit loans are limited by the poor local industrial base. The proportion of credit loans for small and micro enterprise owners has not been high. "After the new regulations, our good start has basically collapsed, and we have already considered job hopping."

For corporate business sectors such as real estate development loans, the psychological impact of the new regulations is far less than that of personal loans, and strict control of the scale will not happen overnight. However, this new regulation clearly stipulates the proportion of real estate loan business, which is directly controlled by increment.

A large bank in southwest China told public credit business people that in order to get a good start, the competition among banks is not who moves fast, but who has more reserves. These projects, which were reserved early in order to make a good start, have now become a burden under the trend of controlling the scale. Not to mention grabbing new projects, how to digest reserve projects may be a problem.

Another big bank in North China told public credit business people that in a short period of time, bank funds will be greatly restricted from entering the real estate sector, and the regulatory authorities prefer bank funds to enter the physical sector and small and micro enterprises. Three red lines+two red lines will cause a large number of small and medium-sized developers to be unable to obtain financing from banks. For local housing enterprises, the repayment period is about 1 year, which will make it very difficult for high-debt housing enterprises, high-leverage housing enterprises that have quickly acquired land in recent years, and small and medium-sized housing enterprises in third-and fourth-tier cities.

"If banks stop lending and stop lending, it will lead to problems in the capital chain of housing enterprises, which is not the result that all parties are happy to see. Therefore, at the beginning of this year, real estate loans are mainly' eat old money', and the needs of head office enterprises are still met at the branch level as much as possible. " He further stated.

More than one trillion housing debts will be due.

It is destined that the financing of housing enterprises will be further blocked and the cash flow will tighten. According to the report released by RealData recently, the debt scale of real estate enterprises due in 20021year (excluding the ultra-short-term bonds to be issued in 20021year) is expected to exceed 1.2 trillion yuan, up by 36% year-on-year, which is a historic breakthrough. The "three red lines" and the new regulations on real estate loans will increase the pressure of debt repayment, so that housing enterprises will usher in the most tense period of cash flow.

What happens is that housing enterprises can relieve the debt pressure through bond swap, thus saving themselves. In addition, the reporter of 265438+20th Century Business Herald found in the interview that some local governments and banks are trying to save housing enterprises, and even adopting more upgraded "replacement" means.

The aforementioned credit business person of a big bank in North China told the reporter of 2 1 Century Business Herald that the renewal of loans for housing enterprises has been tightened and the approval of loans has slowed down. However, since last week, local governments in several cities in the province have cooperated with real estate enterprises, trying to borrow money from banks through local government financing platforms to replace the debts due by real estate enterprises, so as to alleviate the tight cash flow situation of real estate enterprises.

Specifically, the good side is that the local government does not come forward to lead, and when the bank negotiates with the project party, the other party will not mention the government endorsement, and the bank just looks at the government background and then docks. For example, a project currently being promoted is a project company jointly established by a local city investment company and a local head real estate enterprise to invest in a hospital relocation project. The total investment of this project is several billion, and the approval quota of this branch company accounts for more than two thirds. The bank will allocate funds in batches in strict accordance with the project progress. However, after the project company gets the loan, there is room for reinvestment, the main purpose of which is to replace the non-bank debts of the housing enterprises.

"Because the regulatory authorities will be very strict in reviewing bank bonds, there is still some room for non-bank short-term debts. Usually, the city investment company has raised project funds before the establishment of the project company. By setting up a project company and getting a project loan, there will be funds to' replace' the old debts and transfer the debts of housing enterprises to the city investment company. Housing enterprises replace short-term debts in this way, the purpose is not to touch the three red lines and maintain the existing share. " The person further stated.

The reason why banks and government platforms acquiesce in this operation largely comes from helping housing enterprises survive. "The funds replaced by housing enterprises are either blindly expanding or continuing to invest indiscriminately, just to survive. In several cities, this pilot solution is being rolled out. For banks and local government platforms, this approach may be risky, but the source of repayment is new projects. Real estate companies hoard land around the new medicine city and light rail. On the one hand, new projects can' replace' old debts, on the other hand, it is expected to drive the appreciation of surrounding real estate and obtain a stable source of income, thus improving the cash flow of housing enterprises. " The person bluntly said that this method has a "curative effect" on alleviating the urgent needs of housing enterprises at this stage.

Pratt & Whitney indicators become "red lines"

2 1 an interview with the reporter of Century Business Herald found that from the policy indicators of 202 1, inclusive loans have become the top priority of assessment, and there is a high probability that they will continue to grow at a high speed in 202 1.

According to the data of the semi-annual report of listed banks in 2020, the balance of inclusive small and micro loans of the six major state-owned banks in the first half of the year was 4.26 trillion, accounting for about 3 1% of the entire banking industry, up 4 percentage points year-on-year, and became the main force serving small and micro enterprises.

A big banker told 2 1 Century Business Herald that after the new real estate regulations, the indicators of a good start have been adjusted, and Pratt & Whitney has become a red line indicator. For those who have not completed Pratt & Whitney, other businesses will be discounted in proportion, that is, even if other indicators have been completed, as long as Pratt & Whitney has not been completed, the score will be 30%, so grassroots business personnel will give priority to completing Pratt & Whitney indicators.

A loan intermediary told 2 1 Century Business Herald that the inclusive loan policy of 202 1 1 was more favorable than that of 2020, and the minimum mortgage interest rate was lowered from the previous 3.95% to 3.85%, but the threshold did not change further. This person believes that under the current LPR interest rate, the interest rate of 3.85% is almost the bank's reserve price. Recently, many customers have applied for inclusive loans, and it is predicted that all banks will increase their inclusive loans in the first quarter.

The aforementioned big bankers said that the provincial government has intensively introduced many preferential policies to encourage inclusive loans, especially pure credit inclusive loans and technology-based enterprises. For example, the local provincial government implements science and technology loans, and the science and technology department provides 70% guarantee, while agricultural loans, agricultural bureaus and trade unions provide some guarantees. However, for big banks, the audit of enterprise qualifications is still relatively strict. The prerequisite for these customers to obtain approval is to be selected into the product library of science and technology enterprises, and small and micro enterprises that meet the policy will receive more preferential treatment.

"However, for many grassroots business personnel, although there are many preferential policies and sufficient quotas in the industry, small and micro enterprises are subject to local economic conditions, especially in areas with underdeveloped private economy, and there are limited high-quality small and micro enterprises that meet the policies. It is difficult to complete the indicators and get more increments. " The person said.