Tell me about the value investing master in my mind

Source | The Joy of Thinking

Before I start, let me explain a little bit. The value investment I understand, broadly speaking, is a valuable investment, so as long as it implements a "strategy with a positive expected value after objective evaluation by managers", it falls under the category of value investment. To the extreme, in fact, insider trading also falls under the category of value investment. kind of. But this refers specifically to value investing in a narrow sense, which is “an investment method that uses corporate fundamentals as the main basis for investment and implements a buy-and-hold strategy.”

There is no good or bad way to invest, as long as you don’t want to be the so-called second Buffett, and only take financial freedom as the ultimate goal (of course, everyone’s standards are different, assuming that 100 million yuan is the standard) , in fact, there are many ways to achieve it, such as quantitative investment, macro hedging, event-driven, and even timing masters, chart experts, etc., may all achieve the goal of financial freedom (those who have read "Hedge Fund Chronicles" should have experience).

Having said so much, I can summarize it in one sentence: There are many ways to achieve financial freedom through investment. If I am not good at it, it does not mean that I will not be able to get there. I just choose the one that suits me best. What I’m talking about here are the investment masters in the investment path that I recognize.

1. Maotai 03

Brother Maotai’s name must be well-known among more experienced value investors. As the name suggests, his classic battle comes from Maotai. He holds Maotai for a long time Needless to say, the story of obtaining dozens of times income, the most commendable thing is that at the end of 2011, when the image of Moutai shares as a benchmark for value investment has been deeply rooted in the hearts of the people, and Moutai's undefeated has become a myth, he wrote an article "Indifference to Moutai". "Thinking" explains the logic of baijiu investment. Everyone knows the subsequent story. Compared with other baijiu investors, the judgment is clear.

Brother Maotai has a strong understanding of investment. The biggest feature is the depth of his thinking and his strong logic. He is best at summarizing the true meaning of investment in concise language. Many of them have risen to the level of investment. The height of philosophy. Looking at the words he wrote, students who are new to value investing may find it a bit confusing, but for investors with some basic knowledge, it is definitely a treat.

Brother Maotai’s investment areas are mainly concentrated in consumption and medicine. In recent years, there has been a trend of expanding into technology and business. Stock picking is his strength, but recently it seems that he has increased his research on timing. , he is starting to build his own market data tracking system, using a designed program to select undervalued industries and then select individual stocks.

The complete collection of Moutai 03 Feng Liu's articles

2. Crystal Flyswatter (real name: Li Jie)

Brother Pai's investment ideas should be disclosed among these people The most detailed and complete one, because he compiled and published his investment thoughts into a book, "How to Advance in the Stock Market: A Retail Investor's Self-cultivation". Speaking of this book, I must highly recommend it. In the past few years, I have read at least dozens of books on value investing, including "Margin of Safety", "The Future of Investors", "Poor Charlie's Almanac", "True Rules of the Stock Market", Peter Lynch Series, etc. It's a classic book, but in terms of completeness, logic and operability, I recommend Brother Pai's book first. Because most of the books currently talk about the what and why of value investing, but very few actually answer the how. Since it is an advanced approach, this book can be applied to investors of all levels. The analysis of the sources of value, how to identify high-value companies, etc. are all very classic. When reading this book, I often had the feeling that it was "very close to my heart". He said a lot of what I wanted to say, but Brother Pai summarized it more systematically, elaborated it more accurately, and organized it more concisely.

In terms of practical operation, Brother Pai seems to be a bold artist, and has a wider range of interests. The more famous ones such as Tasly and Golden Mantis have made huge profits.

3. Success

Let’s look at the performance first. From 2004 to 2013, the average annual compound growth rate in the past 10 years was 66.49, and the asset value increased by 163 times. When ordinary investors see this report card, their first reaction is probably to be disdainful, and they are trying to make a fool of themselves again.

Unfortunately, that was my reaction when I first heard about it. But after I spent more than half a month intermittently reading his investment blogs (recorded from 2006 to the present) one by one, I was convinced that he was indeed a great guy.

Brother Feng has been investing in small and medium-sized market value growth stocks for ten years, and his main positions are only invested in the electronic information and pharmaceutical industries that he is familiar with. It is precisely because he sticks to his circle of competence and first ensures He has never made a big mistake. Secondly, he can hold a heavy position in some well-researched stocks. This, coupled with the background of domestic macroeconomic transformation and the general premium of small and medium-capitalization stocks in the A-share market, has given him a proud record.

As for Brother Feng, of course I am envious of his investment record, but I also recognize his attitude towards life. He said (roughly): The ultimate purpose of being a professional investor is to obtain a better quality of life (both material and spiritual) and make yourself happier. If your investment model makes you miserable, even if you can gain What’s the point of better returns? Therefore, investment must not be the whole life, nor can it be your only interest and hobby. As long as you have a calm mind and do things that make you happy, you can often get twice the result with half the effort. He said that his happiness basically consists of the following parts: music (40), stocks (25), friends (15), travel and photography (10), movies (5), and reading (5). Reading his blog, you can tell that in addition to investing, he spends as much time and energy on traveling and collecting old vinyl records as on investing.

4. Duan Yongping

Mr. Duan’s experience is different from that of the above three people. He is an industrial entrepreneur. He is the founder of BBK and is still the major shareholder, but no longer When it comes to business operations, he goes to the United States and then invests in the secondary market. Since he is a business owner himself, he has a very unique vision of corporate value. However, the most important premise is that he only cares about industries he can understand, mainly consumer electronics and the Internet industry. Duan's famous work is that he bought a large number of NetEase stocks when the Internet stock bubble burst in 2000, and then quit after making a huge profit of 100 times. Cases disclosed later include Yahoo, APPLE, Sony, etc., all of which have achieved good profits. Of course, Duan's most well-known thing is that he won the sky-high price lunch with Lao Ba through bidding.

Among the investors I know, the above four people are second to none in terms of the breadth and depth of their understanding of value investing, the stability of the investment system and the verification effect. At the same time, because the information is relatively detailed, I was the one who It is the object of general study in textbooks.

According to my understanding, both Maotai and Brother Pai are natural investors, with solid basic skills, good at discovering and summarizing rules, and superior understanding, while Brother Feng and Mr. Duan belong to the Taoist to the Simple, especially He emphasizes sticking to his circle of competence and never making big mistakes, but he eats hard when he catches a good opportunity. The four people all had a very good mentality, and in the end they reached the same goal through different paths and achieved remarkable results.

In fact, in addition to the four above, there are many other investors who I think are also excellent investors.

Of course, there are hidden dragons and crouching tigers on the Internet. In addition to the above-mentioned ones, there must be other extraordinary people who have made a fortune without showing off their skills. They have already achieved financial freedom or are rushing towards financial freedom. On the road, I just don’t understand it.

Generally speaking, I think that domestic value investors currently pay more attention to the conclusion, but often ignore the premise, background and necessary conditions for this conclusion. An example was given before, that is, Lao Ba became the richest man in the world through investment. Yes, but was it just because he held so-called consumer stocks and pharmaceutical stocks for a long time? The ovarian lottery, the specific development stage of the United States, the constant flow of cheap funds under a special model, personal knowledge, personality, and Munger's assistance, etc., all these factors together determine that there can only be one Lao Ba, and no one can copy it.

In addition, Lao Ba also said that he never invests in technology stocks, because the advantages established by relying on temporary technological leadership are often not easy to last. The words themselves are correct, but don’t ignore a very important premise. : This is true in the long run.

But what is the long term? Lao Ba himself said that he uses 7 years as an assessment cycle. I wonder if people who see and agree with Lao Ba's theory also think and do this. On the contrary, anyone who has read the book "The Future of Investors" knows that from the 50-year assessment cycle, the big bull stocks are more concentrated in consumer and pharmaceutical stocks. This conclusion is also correct, but if you As a person who has never actively held shares for more than 3 years, I am afraid that the verification effect will make you disappointed.

Brother Feng mentioned above, his specialty is to accompany carefully selected high-quality seeds through the best growth stage within his own circle of competence, and then abandon them decisively when he is an old lady, cycle It took almost 2-3 years and the effect was amazing. Please note that the most important premise of this sentence is to select within your circle of competence (of course, what counts as being within your circle of competence is another big topic). Only in this way can you increase the probability of finding high-quality seeds.

Finally, to apply the most popular saying at the moment, "I understand a lot of truths, but I still can't make investments well", but I want to say, "Are you sure you really understand?"

We have produced the above collection of investment thoughts from Moutai 03 Feng Liu, Crystal Flyswatter, and Duan Yongping. I hope it will inspire you.

How to obtain: Forward and enter the author's homepage to send: Collected Works.

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