Four key information speculations: Voice and SMS are irreversible, will they disappear?

Under the suppression of instant messaging tools such as WeChat, the revenue share of operators’ voice and SMS services has shown a rapid shrinking trend. With the rapid arrival of the 5G era, various information applications and products will surely shine. Will voice and text messages further disappear in the future as they are already sunset businesses?

1. One company dominates in traffic revenue

A research report recently released by the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology shows that in the second quarter of 2020, the average tariff for mobile data traffic in my country was 4.3 yuan/GB. , a year-on-year decrease of 23.25%; the average monthly mobile data usage of users was 9.52GB, a year-on-year increase of 33.8%; the average monthly mobile communication household expenditure was 47.8 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.3%.

According to the calculation based on the above data, in the mobile communication business, the revenue contribution of traffic is 40.95 yuan/month, and the revenue contribution of other services such as voice and SMS is only 6.86 yuan/month; the revenue contribution of traffic accounts for The revenue ratio is as high as 85.6%, and other business revenue such as voice and SMS account for less than 15%.

In fact, relevant data in 2018 and 2019 have already shown the fact that the revenue scale of voice and text messages continues to shrink. The revenue proportion of traffic in 2018 and 2019 was 73.6% and 75.1% respectively. This number has reached a high of 85.6% by the second quarter of this year.

2. 2G network acceleration function machine is withdrawn from the market

From a global perspective, my country's 4G network is the best in the world in terms of coverage scale and network quality. Based on such network capabilities, combined with the widespread popularity of smartphones and the rapid reduction of traffic tariffs, the number of mobile Internet users in my country has achieved rapid expansion.

Driven by the regulatory authorities’ new infrastructure strategy, 5G has entered a period of concentrated construction. Operators are under increasing pressure to maintain networks from 2G to 5G. China Unicom, as the representative, has already begun the work of 2G network withdrawal. By then, China Unicom's 2G network users will either have to switch networks or migrate within the network to become smartphone users.

The main applications for feature phone users are voice and text messaging. After the 2G network withdrawal is completed, 2G feature phone users will disappear in large areas, which will be accompanied by a large reduction in voice and SMS services. In fact, regardless of whether operators intend to force feature phone users to upgrade to smartphone users, the trend of technological development is also a huge driving force.

3. The decline of voice has been difficult to reverse

Since operators completed the transformation of traffic operations, the scale of voice business revenue has begun a slow decline. . In recent years, the revenue of voice services has declined at an alarming rate. This includes both the replacement role of WeChat and others, and the deliberate indifference of operators to let voice be replaced in pursuit of traffic.

Judging from the actual situation in 2018 and 2019, voice business volume and business revenue have both declined significantly. Data released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology show that the decline rate of voice business since 2020 has basically remained the same. Judging from the trend, there is no tendency to reverse at all.

Regardless of whether the voice business eventually dies, the undoubted fact is that its business volume and revenue contribution will continue to shrink. By then, voice, as a once dominant application, will most likely be reduced to an insignificant role. As a tool for instant communication, voice cannot withstand the attack of WeChat. This may be the meaning of the advancement of communication and information technology.

4. Can new 5G messages solicit text messages?

Although 5G network construction is in full swing, the lack of 5G applications is also a current fact. In order to accelerate the innovation and application of 5G services, the three major operators have jointly launched 5G new messaging services with well-known manufacturers such as Huawei and Samsung. What is the new news about 5G?

The new 5G message is to upgrade the original simple text information to rich media information including pictures, videos, text, etc. If 5G new messages are regarded as SMS technology and application upgrades, then the life of SMS has the possibility to continue. Even though the current application of 5G new information is not widespread.

Various logical speculations show that voice and SMS services are very likely to be replaced in the future, even if they will not completely disappear. Although voice can exist for a long time as an incidental application, and SMS can also be used on a large scale in the Internet of Things field, its era as the main business and revenue contribution has passed, and it will most likely never return. (C114 Niu Chaoran)