Hangzhou has stepped up regulation of the property market and raised the threshold for purchase restrictions. Will Hangzhou’s property market cool down in the future?

On August 5, Hangzhou upgraded its property market control policy and raised the purchase limit threshold, which is conducive to accurately combating speculative demand.

The storm is about to come, and the industry is rumored that the policy of regulating and upgrading Hangzhou's property market has finally been implemented.

On the morning of August 5, the Hangzhou Municipal Housing Security and Real Estate Administration Bureau issued the "Notice on Further Strengthening the Regulation of the Real Estate Market" (referred to as the "Notice"), which further strengthened housing purchase restrictions. Specific measures include new The social security for settled households requires 2 years, and the social security for non-local registered households requires 4 years before they can buy a house. Industry insiders believe that this move has significantly raised the purchase limit threshold and also accurately hit speculative demand.

In addition, in improving the sales management of newly built commercial housing, in view of the current situation of "ten thousand people shaking hands" in popular properties, Hangzhou sorts popular properties with registered people exceeding 10 times the housing supply according to the number of months of social security payment. A certain percentage will be shortlisted for the notarization lottery.

Aiming at investors, Hangzhou’s purchase restrictions are upgraded

This upgrade of Hangzhou’s purchase restrictions first targets newly settled groups. According to the notice, households with household registration that have settled in this city for less than 5 years can only purchase one house within the city's purchase restrictions if they have paid urban social security within the city's purchase restrictions for 24 consecutive months starting 2 years before the date of purchase.

Previously, as long as you could settle in Hangzhou, you were eligible to buy a house. At present, the difficulty of settling in Hangzhou is not high. For example, talent identification is considered to be the "fastest and most convenient way" in Hangzhou currently. The minimum conditions are: a full-time college degree (including higher vocational education) under the age of 35 (excluding 35 years old) and a person under the age of 45. Full-time talents with a bachelor's degree (excluding 45 years old) who work in Hangzhou and have their employers pay social security normally can apply for settlement.

As a popular city in the Yangtze River Delta, Hangzhou, many home buyers in the Yangtze River Delta, especially Shanghai, can often use talent identification channels to "easily" break through purchase restrictions. Previously, in interviews, many Hangzhou intermediaries also told reporters that "even if the job is not in Hangzhou, it can be packaged as a unit in Hangzhou to meet social security payment." After "packaging", you can become a new Hangzhou resident and have the qualifications to buy a house in Hangzhou. This leaves a "hole" for foreign investment in Hangzhou.

Industry insiders who are familiar with Hangzhou’s property market said: “After the upgrade of purchase restrictions, the Hangzhou market may lose tens of thousands of room cards. This is because in the first five months of this year, Hangzhou introduced 230,000 new university graduates. , according to the demand for home purchases of 20, there are also 46,000 home buyers flocking to the market, and after the current purchase restrictions are upgraded, these new housing tickets will be shut out."

“This time, the channels for detouring talents to purchase houses have been ‘locked’. There were loopholes in the previous operation process, and there was a phenomenon of talents settling in the market to speculate in real estate. However, after this tightening, the demand side has decreased. The market enthusiasm will definitely decrease," said Lu Wenxi, a senior analyst at Shanghai Zhongyuan Real Estate.

In addition, according to the notice, for households not registered in this city, they are required to "have paid urban social security or personal income tax within the city's purchase restriction range for 48 consecutive months starting from the 4 years before the date of purchasing a house." The purchase of one house is limited to one house within the purchase restriction range of this city."

“This group of people who used to have empty registered permanent residences and no actual social security will also face the pressure of purchase restrictions.” Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of E-House Research Institute, said, “In the past, it took 2 years to pay social security for non-local household registration. Now it is 4 years. Such regulations show that Hangzhou controls both local and non-local housing purchases and cracks down on all types of real estate speculation. "

The lottery is based on the number of months of social security." The notice stipulates that within the scope of the city's purchase restrictions, when a new commercial housing project is notarized and sold publicly, the ratio of the number of registered households with intention to purchase to the number of publicly sold houses is greater than or equal to 10 : 1, non-householding families and ordinary families are sorted from most to least by the number of months of social security payment. High-level talent families are first sorted by B, C, D, and E talent categories from high to low. Talents in the same category are then sorted by social security payment. The number of months is sorted from most to least, and shortlisted for the notarization lottery at a certain ratio. Families that have registered multiple house purchase intentions and have reached the minimum number of social security months will be shortlisted for the lottery together.

The social security payment time for families who register their intention to purchase a house starts from January 2006, and is calculated based on the member of the house-purchasing family who has the longest cumulative social security payment time within the city’s purchase restrictions.

Hangzhou’s approach refers to Shanghai’s lottery method based on the number of months of social security. It also reflects the shift in regulatory thinking in hot cities such as Hangzhou and Shanghai, which prioritizes “those who have lived stably in the city for a long time.” group" rather than short-term speculators. The notarized lottery based on a certain proportion also avoids the occurrence of “thousands of people lottery” and “extremely low winning rate”.

In addition, for properties that are “floating” on the market, that is, where the number of registered households with intention to purchase is less than or equal to the number of properties for public sale, this new policy also requires development companies to adopt a notarized lottery method to determine housing selection. The houses are sold sequentially and in order, and the remaining houses can be sold by themselves.

Hangzhou industry insiders revealed that currently, in the Hangzhou property market, there are situations where some developers privately persuade customers to withdraw, deliberately causing insufficient registration and causing hesitation, and then "the developers decide who to sell to and who not to sell to." . For "floating" real estate properties, the lottery also reflects fairness.

Industry: The New Deal will cool down the property market in Hangzhou

In fact, there are already signs in the industry that Hangzhou will upgrade its property market regulation this time.

In the past two years, the Hangzhou market has also seen a number of red listings that are "voted by thousands of people", and the widening interest rate difference between first- and second-hand housing has also become a driving force for foreign investors to flock to Hangzhou.

Judging from the first half of this year, in May, the Hangzhou market experienced a wave of peak prices. Data from the E-House Research Institute Think Tank Center shows that in May this year, the number of new home transactions in Hangzhou reached 38,000, and the average transaction price also stood at a high of about 33,000 yuan/square meter.

After entering June and July, as the calls for regulation became louder and louder, the new home market in Hangzhou also showed a downward trend, and the buyer's mentality changed, showing a wait-and-see attitude. The latest data in July shows that the number of new home transactions in Hangzhou has dropped to 12,000, and the average transaction price has also dropped to 27,000 yuan/square meter due to factors such as the launch structure.

However, from the perspective of supply and demand, the contradiction between supply and demand in the Hangzhou property market is still prominent. Data from the E-House Research Institute Think Tank Center shows that in terms of supply and demand, the supply of new commercial housing in Hangzhou (excluding county towns) has been in short supply in the past six months.

After the introduction of the new policy, many industry insiders also predict that the Hangzhou market will cool down. Yan Yuejin said: "The 'granularity' of Hangzhou's regulation has been significantly enhanced this time, that is, it has been continuously refined, and various methods of exploiting policy loopholes have been constantly discovered. All-round regulation has been carried out, and some new areas of real estate speculation have been targeted in a targeted manner. Affected by this, the real estate market is more likely to cool down in the second half of the year. ”