Under the encirclement and suppression of the Big Three, the pinecone in a dilemma wandered around.

Made by Qi Chao. Com "see column"

A few years ago, * * * enjoyed cycling, which awakened many investors and enabled * * * to enjoy economic prosperity. Under the background that all major Internet companies are involved in the game, but it is difficult to make a profit by burning money for a long time, Guo Song travels to the county-level sinking market and fights its way out on the track of * * *.

Many people regard its rapid profit as luck brought by its misplaced competition. However, Zhai Guanglong, the founder of Guo Song Tourism, attributed his current success to the "cognitive difference" behind his strategic choice. It is understood that in 20 14, Zhai Guanglong chose to explore the * * * enjoyment mode in the transportation field and established the first free ride product in China-the daily car App；; Later, at the end of 20 17, Guo Song Travel was established and began to focus on enjoying the motorcycle field.

In his cognition, Songguo focuses on "motorcycles" rather than ordinary bicycles; In addition, Guo Song's tourism focuses on the "sinking market in the county" rather than the first-and second-tier cities. These two strategies have enabled Guo Song tourism to gain a firm foothold in the county-level market.

However, the pine cone tour, which looks like scenery, is under great pressure from the three giants. As we all know, there are three troikas in the industry, namely Hello, Qingju and Meituan, which have entered the track of * * *, gradually covering the third and fourth lines from first-and second-tier cities. Behind it are big capitals and consortia like Ali, Didi and Meituan. At this time, the trip to the pine cone is obviously like surviving in the cracks. I am afraid that the outcome is unpredictable.

Success is also a "county territory", and failure is also a "county territory"

For a long time, Guo Song travel has been regarded as the "automatic Aauto Quicker" in the travel industry, attacking the county-level market like ants moving, and even gradually infiltrating into small towns all over the country. It is this positioning that makes it avoid the sharp edge of early giants in first-tier cities and find its own positioning.

Previously, the IPO had known for a long time. According to several independent sources, Guo Song Travel, a motorcycle service provider, plans to go public in the United States this year, and investment banks such as Morgan Stanley have been selected to help it complete the IPO, with an estimated financing scale of 300 million US dollars.

However, after * * * enjoys Airbnb accommodation, * * enjoys charging with charging treasure monsters and * * enjoys online car travel and listing, * * * companies enjoying economic concepts such as Hellobike and Dida Inc. have gathered in the IPO environment. Because the trip to Songta is limited to the county-level market and lacks traffic, can investors pay the bill? I'm afraid there's a question mark.

In terms of funds, unlike the continuous financing by car every day, the financing frequency of travel in Guo Song is relatively small.

The decline of * * * bicycle enjoyment and the entry of giants such as Didi Meituan have made the concept of * * * bicycle enjoyment no longer sought after by capital. According to the public information of Tianyancha App, Guo Song Travel has only completed one round of financing since its establishment.

According to the analysis of "See Column", there may be two reasons why Guo Song rarely receives capital blessing. On the one hand, it has certain capital circulation ability and can be self-sufficient. Even some insiders believe that the news of its listing three years after its establishment may mean that Guo Song tourism in Zhai Guanglong's eyes has a mature business model.

On the other hand, for the "outdated" * * * travel mode, the three giants are all involved, which is tantamount to throwing eggs at stones, which may not be worth the candle, so they are very cautious.

Moreover, judging from the average daily riding times in the industry, the advantages of pine cone travel are not obvious.

Pinecone is known as the earliest motorcycle product in China, focusing on sinking the market rather than first-tier cities. According to its published data, as of March, 20021year, motorcycles in Guo Song have landed in 24 provinces and nearly 1000 counties, with nearly 50 million registered users and 3 million people riding every day, with a cumulative user riding about 2.63 billion kilometers.

Correspondingly, there are more than 400 Hello motorcycles in the city, and the cumulative users ride more than 5.6 billion kilometers. According to the data disclosed in its prospectus, the average daily riding times of Hello motorcycles in 2020 will be about 3.09 million times.

In addition, according to LatePost's data, in March of 20021,Didi's green orange motorcycle was used about 3.8 million times a day. The US delegation has about 3 million times. In other words, the average daily riding times of motorcycles in Guo Song are not as good as those in Qingju and Hello, and are equivalent to those in Meituan.

It is worth mentioning that, according to the Special Report on China Motorcycle Market in 2020 released by Analysys, as of June 2020 10, the order trading index of different platforms in China motorcycle market shows that Green Orange, Hello and Meituan rank in the top three with trading indexes of 42.5, 37.6 and 18.6 respectively.

This means that in the field of motorcycles, the top three industries are Green Orange, Hello and Meituan; Songta travel is classified as "other", and its status is not even an order of magnitude with the above three.

Although at the end of this year 1, Zhai Guanglong revealed that Guo Song tourism has achieved full profit for two consecutive years. However, industry giants such as Green Orange, Hello and Meituan are still struggling on the verge of loss. You know, even the Hellobike blessed by Ali Capital has a gross profit of less than 65,438+00% after it turned positive in 2065,438+09.

Therefore, some insiders questioned its published profit data. Its large-scale profit may not be sustainable, and its short-term profit is only false prosperity on the premise that its scale is not as good as that of Green Orange, Hello and Meituan.

It is worth mentioning that in the motorcycle market, there is a recognized logic that the number and distribution of vehicles are directly related to the reach of users, which is also the core competitive barrier of motorcycles.

At present, Guo Song tourism can still make a profit because the investment is relatively small. Once the scale and scope of operation are expanded and the number of vehicles is increased, the operating cost will increase, the turnover rate of each motorcycle will decrease and its profit will be greatly reduced.

Secondly, the motorcycle track is increasingly crowded, and many competitors such as the Big Three have accelerated into third-and fourth-tier cities. According to reports, in 2002 1 year, Didi (Green Orange) plans to launch 2 million motorcycles, Meituan plans to launch over110,000 motorcycles, and Xiaomi Eco-chain Enterprise No.9 has also entered the field of two-wheeled electric vehicles.

Not only players who focus on sinking markets like Guo Song Travel, but also startups like Mibu, riding motorcycles, meowing, enjoying cycling and walking. This also means that even if the existing scale of operation is maintained, the "leading position in the county market" of Guo Song tourism has been threatened by all parties. With the increase of vehicles in Guo Song's overall travel market, the possibility of Guo Song's travel loss cannot be ruled out, and its sustainable profitability is also a problem.

On the other hand, the layout of the three major layouts in * * * is from the first and second lines to the third and fourth lines and county-level areas. With its blood transfusion in the primary and secondary markets for its sinking market, it will also have the confidence to fight a protracted war with long-tail enterprises like Guo Song Tourism.

But it is almost impossible for pine cone travel to float from the sinking market to the first or second line. So it may be its fate to be confined to the county-level market. Therefore, the county-level market that once made it rise rapidly is becoming an obstacle to its development and growth. However, the limited county-level market is already filled with smoke and trapped in the pine cone of a small county. Obviously, there are not many opportunities to fight back.

The motorcycle market tends to be saturated, and pine cone travel approaches the flow ceiling.

* * * After several competitions with motorcycle giants, motorcycles have entered the competition in the stock market. In addition to Yadea, Mavericks and other traditional electric vehicle brands have occupied a large part of the family motorcycle market, the market space for enjoying motorcycles is getting smaller and smaller.

However, the structure of pine cone travel products is single, and it is also caught in the dilemma of flow and capital, which is difficult to crack in a short time.

The data shows that the market space of the whole motorcycle has become saturated. According to the report released by China Urban Public Transport Association in August 2020, the total number of motorcycles in China has reached about 5 million. Among them, the number of motorcycles that have been put into use in administrative areas above the county level accounts for 50%, and the proportion of motorcycles above the county level in most central and eastern provinces exceeds 70%, and some provinces are close to 100%.

According to Ai Media Consulting, in 2025, there will be more than 8 million motorcycles. If Guo Song doesn't know he is traveling because of his current achievements, or he is stuck in a corner, the motorcycle market will peak soon.

Now the competition in the sinking market even exceeds that in the first-tier cities where there have been wars and disputes. Compared with Green Orange, Hello and Meituan under the protection of Internet giants, Guo Song obviously has neither the advantages of traffic entrance nor strong financial strength, and its brand advantages and price advantages are gone.

For example, in terms of traffic, pine cone travel is dwarfed by Hello Motorcycle, Didi Lime and Meituan. Backed by Alipay's super platform with over 700 million active users this month, it not only has the advantage of free diversion, but also has the trust endorsement without deposit. Even today's Hellobike is not only a service provider who enjoys two-wheeled vehicles, but also a service platform for local life.

Green orange motorcycle is backed by Didi's unique flow pool and travel scene advantages, which makes its travel genes shine again in the field of * * * enjoying motorcycles. Another giant Meituan has mastered the core traffic portal of the local life service platform, and its strength cannot be underestimated.

Compared with the customer acquisition cost of Guo Song travel, the cost of these platforms is almost zero, so these platforms will also have advantages over Guo Song travel in terms of profit model and gross profit margin. Therefore, according to the analysis of professionals in the industry, Guo Song's trip to the US stock market is not the peak of its development, but a direct manifestation of the anxiety caused by its lack of development funds and weak growth.

Although its founder Zhai Guanglong thinks that the flow logic has been proved to be a failure in the motorcycle industry. However, what we should see is that the scale effect of the giants is constantly reducing the marginal cost of enjoying the motorcycle model.

On the other hand, Songguo, an independent operation mode, not only needs a lot of money, but also has too heavy assets. Once large-scale expansion, it is tantamount to carrying a burden. This is obviously stressful compared with the mode that giants go into battle lightly and only rely on large flow.

Moreover, Guo Song threatened to be a model of * * * enjoyment of the whole industrial chain, and his courage was commendable. But after all, Yadea, Mavericks and other electric vehicle brands occupy the market. When the giants eat up the electric car market, it may be the day for Guo Song to travel.

According to the survey data of Ai Media Consulting, Guo Song lost to the Big Three in terms of vehicle hardware technology safety and user safety construction system. It can be seen that after the motorcycle market is saturated, Guo Song's travel is also facing the dilemma of traffic approaching the ceiling under the attack of giants, and its industry position in the county-level market is also in jeopardy because the Internet giants are aiming at the sinking market.

Complaints are constantly being monitored and tightened, and there is a hidden crisis in Guo Song tourism.

The problems faced by Guo Song's tourism industry are not only macro-level. Compared with the Big Three in software and hardware technology and security, it is also slightly inferior. Even it suffered more complaints than other players, and it remained high.

According to observation, online complaints about * * * enjoying motorcycle trips can be seen everywhere. Take Sina Black Cat as an example. There were 848 complaints about Pinecone Motorcycle, and less than 500 search results were found for Green Orange Motorcycle, Hello Bicycle and Meituan Motorcycle.

As the * * * problem of enjoying motorcycles, problems such as difficult parking, poor endurance, high platform fee/hard deposit refund have also become high-incidence areas and hardest hit areas for users' complaints. The resulting user experience problems are also unspeakable harm to users.

Taking its temporary parking charges and off-site charges as examples, the voice of users is endless. For example, some users complained on the Internet that a motorcycle riding out of a designated area will be charged a pit digging fee without any hint, which is suspected of overlord clause.

In addition, "Look at the column" noticed that many users complained about the pinecone motorcycle on the consumer protection platform, saying that the battery was full when scanning the code, but the power was cut off halfway. Even if I rode to the parking area, I still charged 23 yuan. Complaints are also its overlord clause, charging fees at random.

It is understood that behind these common phenomena, there are both the incompetence of motorcycle operators and the factors of national policy supervision, which lead to the official distortion of some policies and regulations and seriously affect the user experience.

As we all know, first-tier cities have always been forbidden areas for * * * to enjoy motorcycles, so it is difficult to see * * * enjoying motorcycles in the north, Guangzhou and Shenzhen. Although it is not explicitly prohibited to sink the market, the national and regional documents that "do not encourage the development of internet rental electric bicycles" are also one after another. Therefore, parking difficulties and unreasonable charges have become the number one problem for * * * to enjoy motorcycle projects.

On August 2nd, 20 17, ten ministries and commissions, including the Ministry of Communications and Publicity Department of the Communist Party of China, jointly issued the Guiding Opinions on Encouraging and Regulating the Development of Internet Rental Bicycles, which made a series of regulations on the market launch and operation of bicycles and motorcycles.

With the introduction of guidance, Beijing, Changsha, Shanghai, Hangzhou and other cities have issued relevant documents to urge enterprises to rectify and even clean up and recycle electric bicycles within a time limit. At the end of 2020 1 1 Changsha interviewed six motorcycle companies, and 460,000 motorcycles were cleared on the streets of Changsha, and 65,000 motorcycles with license plates were retained.

It can be seen that all parts of the country have different degrees of "aversion" to the launch and operation of motorcycles, and it is difficult to find a benign living soil. And because its living space is getting smaller and smaller, the market competition tends to be white-hot. What this brings is also the internal and external troubles of enterprises like Guo Song Tourism.

It is understood that there are many reasons why the relevant state departments do not encourage * * * to enjoy electric vehicles. Including vehicles generally exceeding the standard, prone to traffic accidents, prominent fire safety hazards, high vehicle operation safety risks, battery pollution and other serious problems.

According to the survey data of Tianyan, the number of legal disputes caused by traffic accidents and liability disputes has exceeded 10. During the operation, there have been ***8 lawsuits on the right to life, health and body. Non-motor vehicle traffic accident liability disputes caused by Songta motorcycles are also very common.

Therefore, Guo Song's travel is not only facing the increasingly difficult development situation of supervision, but also the life safety of users is threatened, which may bring many crises such as environmental pollution. The continuous decline of its users' reputation and the increasing number of complaints are also strong signals that its brand has encountered a crisis of trust. It is worth mentioning that if we continue to expand the pace of county-level cities, this crisis and risk will only grow bigger and bigger. Under all kinds of heavy pressure, Guo Song tourism is caught in a dilemma, and it is difficult to ride a tiger.

label

In the early years, Guo Song won the first pot of gold because of the layout of the county market, and enjoyed the tourism market in the giant * * *, grabbing a place. However, at the moment when the three giants are all aiming at the sinking market, their respective advantages and disadvantages are further highlighted. Its original market is gradually being swallowed up by the giants, leaving it with less and less room for development.

Under the Matthew effect, I am afraid that the development of pine cone travel can no longer rely on luck, and it needs refined operation. However, Guo Song, which takes the lead in making profits, may not generalize, but intends to expand the upstream business of the industrial chain and even create an industrial ecology.

However, the most direct problem facing Guo Song's tourism assets-oriented operation mode will be a large amount of funds. Therefore, it chose to go public for financing, perhaps just for the continuation of life. It may be difficult to tell a good story in the capital market and convince investors to buy it.

Optimistically, even if Guo Song successfully went public in the United States and won the title of "* * * enjoys the first share of motorcycle shares", listing may not be the end, let alone the highlight moment. This can be seen from the performance of another * * * mode listed corporate monster charging in the capital market. There are always striking similarities in history. I hope pinecone will not repeat the same mistakes because of radicalism.