How to treat China MCC's subscription on September 9th?

I am a securities trader with 15 years trading experience.

Personally, I think MCC's opening price has risen within 20-30%, even if it wins 1000 shares, it will not be profitable.

On the first day of opening, it will not fall below the issue price.

The following is an expert evaluation: for reference.

Next Wednesday, another large-cap stock, China MCC (60 16 18), will apply online. It is generally expected that the issue price of MCC will be around 6 yuan, and some institutions expect that the winning rate of online subscription of MCC will reach 2%. Because the first day of listing is not expected to increase much, analysts suggest that investors who pursue high returns and high risks choose to directly participate in the secondary market investment. However, it is difficult to win the lottery when small and medium-sized stocks are issued. China MCC will issue no more than 265,438,000,000 shares online, which will bring more opportunities to the new generation than small and medium-sized stocks.

The expected issue price is around 6 yuan.

China MCC will publicly issue no more than 3.5 billion A shares, of which the initial offline issuance scale will not exceed 654.38+04 billion shares, accounting for about 40% of the issuance scale; The subscription of online funds does not exceed 26,543.8 billion shares, accounting for about 60% of the issuance scale. The company said that after this A-share issuance, it plans to issue H-shares to overseas investors. The company promises that the issue price of H shares to be publicly issued shall not be lower than the issue price of A shares, and the number of H shares to be issued this time shall not exceed 266,543,800 million shares. If the over-allotment option is fully exercised, it will eventually issue no more than 30 billion/kloc-0.50 billion H shares.

China MCC has long been committed to metallurgical engineering contracting. In 2008, the net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company was 365,438+0.10.8 billion yuan, and in the first half of 2009, the net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company was 2.083 billion yuan. As of June 30, 2009, the net assets per share of China MCC was 0.30 yuan.

Citic Securities, the lead underwriter of the company, predicts that the net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company will reach 4.937 billion yuan, 6.709 billion yuan and 9.288 billion yuan, 20 1 1 respectively in 2009. The fully diluted annual net profit of AH shares in 2009, 20 10 and 2010 was 0.25 yuan, 0.34 yuan and 0.48 yuan respectively. It is predicted that the company's value is between 6.07 yuan and 7.57 yuan, which is equivalent to 24-30 times of diluted earnings of 0.25 yuan per share of AH shares issued in 2009.

In contrast, other securities companies' forecasts for the issue price of China MCC are relatively low. Among them, Shen Yin Wanguo is expected to suggest the purchase price range from 5.2 yuan to 6 yuan.

Zhu Limin, an analyst of Shanghai Securities, said in an interview with the reporter of National Business Daily: "Since most of the companies listed in Hong Kong in the past issued at lower prices than those listed in the Mainland, after promising that the issuance price of H shares will not exceed that of A shares, the company's fund-raising projects will raise funds by issuing new shares in the two places, which will dilute the profit per share again. We estimate that the price-earnings ratio of this issue is low. " He predicted that the IPO price of the company would be 5 ~ 6 yuan.

Wang Yu, an analyst of Pacific Securities, said in an interview with the National Business Daily that MCC earned 0.25 yuan per share in 2008, and the current P/E ratios of China Railway and China Railway Construction are between 22 and 26. Based on this, it is estimated that the issue price of China MCC is reasonable in 5.5 yuan and 6.5 yuan.

Or not as hot as the buildings in China.

Although only China MCC will subscribe for new shares next week, the enthusiasm for innovation in the primary market may have cooled down.

Liu Yunfeng, an analyst at Chase Securities, and Wang Yujun, an analyst at Pacific Securities, predict that the winning rate of China MCC is around 2%, and it is estimated that 700-800 billion yuan will be frozen online.

"It is expected that the subscription of China MCC will not be as hot as that of China Construction." The two analysts told reporters in unison. Previously, 887.6 billion yuan was frozen online in China Construction and 891200 million yuan was frozen online in Everbright Securities.

Liu Yunfeng told the reporter of the National Business Daily, "On the one hand, the first-day increase of new shares has not been significant recently, and the attractiveness of new funds has also declined. The winning rates of Luolai Home Textiles (002293) and Xinlitai (002294) announced recently are 0.47% and 0.66% respectively, which is much higher than the previous winning rate of small and medium-sized plates of about 0.2%. On the other hand, after the previous stock market adjustment, the current price-earnings ratio of blue-chip stocks in the secondary market has been in line with mature markets, and reasonable valuation has prompted funds to flow to the secondary market. " He predicted that the online frozen funds may be around 800 billion yuan. Wang Yu's forecast is around 700 billion.

"However, due to the relatively small number of A shares issued by China MCC, the winning rate may not be as high as that of China Construction," said Zhu Limin of Shanghai Securities. Previously, China Construction publicly issued 654.38+02 billion shares, but this time China MCC only issued 3.5 billion A shares.