Investigation on new mortgage regulations: the amount of personal mortgage in Beishangguang is sufficient

The Notice of the Central Bank and the China Banking Regulatory Commission on Establishing the Management System of Real Estate Loan Concentration of Banking Financial Institutions has been implemented since 200211. What is the impact on real estate credit, especially personal mortgage loans?

China securities journal recently interviewed banks and real estate professionals in several cities. At present, the amount of loans in Shenzhen in the north is sufficient, and some areas have even accelerated the lending of commercial loans. On the whole, the individual housing mortgage loan policy has not changed, and some "overrun" banks are under pressure, but on the whole, it is expected to make a smooth transition.

A number of banks said that the mortgage policy has not changed.

Lenders of several banks said that at present, banks have not received the notice of adjusting the real estate credit policy.

The person in charge of a branch of a state-owned bank in Shanghai said that the personal mortgage policy of the bank has not changed at present. "At present, the mortgage ratio of our bank has not exceeded the red line, and it is expected that the subsequent mortgage policy will not change much." The person in charge told the reporter that the lending at the end of the year and the beginning of the year may be affected by the quota and the pace of lending, and the lending speed will be uncertain.

A credit officer of a joint-stock bank in Shenzhen said that the bank's mortgage balance is not high and its mortgage business is not large. It is expected that the relevant limit will not have a significant impact on its personal mortgage business. The aforementioned person told the reporter: "At this stage, the mortgage amount is sufficient."

The credit officer of China Merchants Bank Southern Branch said that it has not yet received the notice to adjust the mortgage policy. However, this person believes that the follow-up does not rule out the introduction of policy adjustment ratio.

Key cities have sufficient quotas.

The first-tier cities represented by Beishangguangshen and Shenzhen have already entered the stage of second-hand housing transactions, and the housing agency is the matchmaker of real estate transactions. Many intermediaries report that the current orders in transit are not limited by the amount of mortgage and the time of lending, but in some key cities, because of the sufficient amount of mortgage, the lending speed is even faster and faster.

Chain Home currently occupies an advantageous position in the second-hand housing market trading center in Beijing. The manager of a store in Beijing Chain Home told the reporter that there are no restrictions on the amount of mortgage loans and the time of lending in the banks that Chain Home currently cooperates with in Beijing. He also revealed that since June last year 165438+ 10, the speed of issuing pure commercial mortgage loans by banks has obviously accelerated. "Now the loan will be released in 1-3 days after the house is transferred, and soon. It usually took 1-2 weeks before. At present, our cooperative banks have sufficient quotas. "

Zhongyuan Real Estate, another large real estate agency, also said that up to now, the mortgage issuance of banking institutions cooperated by Zhongyuan Real Estate in dozens of cities across the country is in a normal state and has not been affected by the "red line". The source believes that the "red line" is to avoid irrational expansion of financial institutions, and most banks still have very generous quotas.

Except for first-tier cities, the personal mortgage policies of some key cities have not changed. The person in charge of a national large-scale housing enterprise Sichuan Branch said that there is no information on the adjustment of Chengdu's personal mortgage policy.

smooth transition

Previously, the regulatory authorities made it clear that a certain transition period should be set for banking institutions that exceeded the upper limit, and these institutions should be given sufficient rectification time to ensure a smooth transition of the market.

Wen Bin, chief researcher of Minsheng Bank, said that establishing a centralized management system for real estate loans can further optimize the credit structure of commercial banks and increase support for the real economy. On the other hand, maintain the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. Banks should increase their support for key areas and weak links such as manufacturing, technological innovation, green finance and small and micro enterprises in new loans.

Founder Securities believes that assuming that the regulatory caliber is completely consistent with the financial report caliber, then the two indicators of China Merchants Bank and Xingye will exceed the regulatory ceiling by 2 percentage points at the end of 2020, and a four-year transition period should be applied. Based on this, considering 2002 1-2024, the possible adjustment paths of China Merchants Bank and Xingye are as follows: the proportion of personal loans of China Merchants Bank is lowered by 4.7 percentage points, and the proportion of public loans is lowered by1percentage point; Industrial Bank's personal loans accounted for 5.7 percentage points, and public loans accounted for 0.5 percentage points. So it has little effect on the overall performance.

The stock price trend in the secondary market is also relatively stable, and the bank stocks that were considered to have fallen sharply due to the excessive proportion of real estate in the early stage have rebounded strongly in the near future. The share price of China Merchants Bank has risen sharply since June 6, 65438, hitting an all-time high of 50.05 yuan in intraday trading. Since June 6, 65438, the share price has risen by nearly 20%. In addition, Industrial Bank and Hangzhou Bank have also recently stepped out of the rising market.

However, Chengdu Bank closed at 9. 16 yuan on June 3rd, with a decrease of 2.45%. Ma Xiangyun, chief analyst of soochow securities Banking, pointed out earlier that in the past three years, housing loans accounted for 25% to 30% of the net new RMB loans of Chengdu Bank. According to its calculation, among the net new loans of Chengdu Bank in the next four years, the proportion of personal housing loans should be reduced to below 5%, and corporate loans in the real estate industry should be reduced to 0%.

In addition, the industry believes that even if China Merchants Bank faces adjustment pressure, it has outstanding advantages in retail business areas such as credit cards and wealth management, and reducing the proportion of real estate loans has limited impact on its performance.