Investment and sales house price data declined, and the cooling policy continued to be transmitted. How is the real estate market?

Source: Zhongyuan Real Estate Research Institute, National Bureau of Statistics. Photo courtesy/watchmaker/cartographer.

Originally, "Jin Jiu" was the peak season for sales, but this year the real estate market was particularly deserted. The signal of market cooling has been perceived by all links in the real estate chain. The data of investment, sales and house prices in the real estate market declined as a whole, and the liquidity of housing enterprises was further under pressure, and their survival and development faced challenges, which even caused market concerns and increased risks.

Under the background of policy tightening, shrinking transactions and continuous pressure on the liquidity of housing enterprises, what is the living condition of housing enterprises and upstream and downstream enterprises? What impact has supervision had? A few days ago, the reporter interviewed developers, intermediaries, property buyers and experts extensively, and outlined the outline of the current real estate market from different dimensions.

"In less than a month, two suites were sold in our store."

"I didn't clinch a deal for this month's 1 set, but as soon as our store * * *, we clinched two sets." Jimou, a chain intermediary, is in charge of Wudaokou, Haidian District, Beijing, which is known as the "center of the universe". There are many scientific research institutes, many Internet technology companies and many high-quality school districts. It is the "land gold" price highland in Beijing, and the transaction has been relatively active.

In the first half of this year, the monthly turnover of Kyrgyzstan's stores was more than ten or twenty sets, and now the turnover is less than one tenth of that of the first half.

Zhou, who works as an intermediary in the Sihui area outside the East Fourth Ring Road in Beijing, told reporters that his recent trading frequency is one order every two months, but it turned out to be two or three orders a month.

Originally the peak season for sales, this year's real estate market is particularly deserted. The wait-and-see mood on the demand side is aggravated, and it is more cautious to enter the market; Some second-hand housing owners who are not in a hurry have moved their houses. Even some developers have slowed down the progress of land acquisition and development, and there have been soil auctions.

The reporter learned from an intermediary in Futian District, Shenzhen that some customers are looking for bamboo shoots recently, which is much lower than the previous transaction price. A residential area is similar in size, with a transaction price of more than 4.6 million in March and only 3.35 million recently.

Owners are also slowing down sales. On the one hand, some owners who are not in urgent need of funds choose to wait and see; On the other hand, owners who need funds are more concerned about whether the final payment can arrive in time, but this link is full of variables now.

A chain salesman told reporters that in the past, the new house could be mortgaged by way of loan approval, and then the loan process was taken. Recently, banks have been slow to lend money, and some banks even have to wait seven months to lend money, so many owners have to get the final payment before they can pay the house. In this way, from the perspective of property buyers, even if they buy now, they will not pay the house until next year. So now many customers are not in a hurry, but they don't make a deal after watching too much.

The weakness of the market has been transmitted to developers. A developer in a third-tier city in an eastern province told reporters, "There are not many people here to get land. Apart from several demolition projects next year, I haven't heard of several other new buildings. The market is saturated and the sales pressure of second-hand houses is high. "

The above phenomenon is not a case. According to the data of Ke Rui, the sales area and sales amount of Kerui Top 100 real estate enterprises decreased by 26% and 20% respectively in August compared with July, and the decline was further expanded. From July to August, the sales scale of commercial housing in China decreased by 65,438+02% and 2% respectively compared with the same period in 2020 and 2065,438+09, and the growth rate in the eastern region decreased by 65,438+03 percentage points.

Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst of RealData, analyzed that the market cooled down in August, and the transaction volume of second-hand houses in key 50 cities declined for several consecutive months. The transaction volume of second-hand houses in more than 90% of cities declined, and the decline in key cities such as Shanghai and Hangzhou was significant. The number of cities with falling prices has increased. Second-hand housing prices in Shenzhen have fallen for four consecutive months, and cities such as Xuzhou, Yinchuan and Jinhua have also fallen.

Banks tighten their wallets and housing companies are under pressure.

It is not an indisputable fact that "Golden September and Silver 10" has a good color. In the eyes of the industry, the overall cooling of the property market actually reflects the effectiveness of policy regulation. From the "three red lines" to the "centralized management system of real estate loans", not only the financing end of housing enterprises continues to be under pressure, but also the sales payment cycle is extended. For housing enterprises that need stable cash flow support in debt repayment and land acquisition, the situation is becoming more and more severe.

From the financing point of view, the cumulative growth rate of financing scale in the first eight months of this year has accelerated compared with the previous July. According to the statistics of RealData, in the first eight months, the total amount of bonds issued by real estate enterprises was about 699.9 billion yuan, down 2 1% year-on-year. Among them, the domestic and overseas bond financing scale of real estate enterprises in August was about 576.5438 billion yuan, down 39.8% from the previous month and 54.2% from the same period last year.

Another main channel for withdrawing funds, that is, the speed of withdrawing funds through sales, is also slowing down. According to data from the central bank, in August, residents' medium and long-term loans fell by 23.55% year-on-year, falling for four consecutive months. In terms of increment, according to the statistics of Ping An Securities Research Report, the proportion of new mortgages in new loans of financial institutions decreased for the third consecutive quarter. In the first half of 20021,major financial institutions increased real estate loans by 2.42 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19. 1%. Among them, new real estate loans in the second quarter were 750 billion yuan, accounting for 15% of the total new loans, which declined for three consecutive quarters.

The reporter learned that due to the centralized management of mortgage loans, some banks have reduced the scale of real estate development loans, and some regional branches of banks have used up the annual personal mortgage quota in only half a year, making new personal mortgages in the region rely on stock transfer and refinancing.

An intermediary in Chaoyang District, Beijing told reporters that there was no obvious adjustment in the bank's quota and orders in the first half of the year. In the past two years, the market was relatively stable, and the bank's second-hand housing loan amount was very generous, so it was not deliberately controlled. Until August, the change of lending speed was not obvious, but since September, individual banks have stopped taking orders. Even some banks have to wait seven months to lend money. In this case, the customer will leave as soon as he listens. Branches and sub-branches of a large state-owned bank are all like this, and small banks can't guarantee it.

According to the intermediary, if you find a bank to make a mortgage now, the time for lending can't be guaranteed, and the banks that can take orders now are basically about 3 months. A branch of a state-owned bank now requires mortgage customers to sign a letter of commitment, promising not to lend money for seven months and not to trouble the bank.

"We cooperate with several banks are not sure. In the first quarter of next year, there will be no quota because of this year's backlog, and it needs to be moved to the second quarter, or because the market is relatively stable, the policy will be liberalized. It is hard to say. " The agent said.

With the double pressure of financing and payment, housing enterprises are facing great challenges. Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, told reporters that the decline in the volume of second-hand housing has a significant impact on the sales of housing enterprises. First-and second-tier cities basically have limited purchase requirements. In cities with restricted purchases, buyers with new needs often adopt the strategy of changing houses, that is, selling second-hand houses first and then buying houses. Therefore, once the volume of second-hand housing declines, the new sales pressure of developers will also increase.

Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of Yiju Research Institute, explained to reporters that the current downturn in the property market lies in the unsustainable pattern of "high turnover and high leverage". First, the pace of housing sales has slowed down, and it is difficult to have high turnover; Second, there is no high leverage model at present, that is, funds will become tighter and tighter.

The land market is cold, and local finance is under pressure.

While many housing enterprises are "short of money" due to tight cash flow, the second round of centralized land supply in key cities has also cooled down compared with the first round.

Due to the high premium rate of land in some cities in the first round of centralized land supply and the participation of some real estate enterprises in the auction, all localities have postponed the centralized listing scheduled for July and adjusted the local auction rules. The adjustment of the second round of land auction rules in many places mainly focuses on strengthening the supervision of land purchase financing of housing enterprises, putting forward the requirements of "bidding for quality schemes" (hereinafter referred to as "competing for quality"), clarifying the upper limit of land premium, and canceling the requirements of "bidding for the construction area of affordable housing". Zhang Dawei said that on the one hand, the second round of land auction rules raised the threshold for housing enterprises to participate in land auction, on the other hand, it also reduced the land acquisition cost of housing enterprises.

Judging from the actual transfer situation, the optimized second round of land auction rules triggered an increase in the auction rate of land in many places. According to the statistics of Central Plains Real Estate Research Center, there are 465 land transactions in the second round in Fuzhou, Qingdao, Jinan and other cities 10, of which more than 1 18 land transactions were suspended, accounting for 25% of these cities.

Zhang Dawei believes that, on the whole, since the beginning of this year, the real estate regulation has been intensive, the credit has been tight, the property market has started to cool down in an all-round way, and the overlapping land transfer policy has been tightened, resulting in the overall indifference of the second round of land opening. At the same time, "competitive quality" has become a new requirement for the second round of centralized land supply, which has obviously increased the construction cost of housing enterprises and reduced their willingness to take land to some extent.

After the land market is cold, it is further boosting this round of downturn in the property market. Bai Wenxi, chief economist of IP Global in China, told reporters that the initial orientation of the centralized land supply policy implemented this year is to reduce the overall land acquisition price level of real estate enterprises while ensuring the maximization of land transfer income. However, because the policy design is too idealistic, it actually makes the already tight liquidity of real estate enterprises worse, which has boosted the downward and spread of the current property market.

It is worth noting that due to the cold land market, local fiscal revenue has also been affected. Judging from the financial revenue and expenditure in August released by the Ministry of Finance, the cumulative revenue from the transfer of state-owned land use rights from June 5438 to August was 47 1 1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12. 1%. However, in August, the income from the transfer of state-owned land use rights decreased 17.54% year-on-year.

Although the income from land transfer decreased, the floor price of many transactions remained stable as a whole. Zhongyiyuan pointed out that under the optimization of land auction rules, the average floor price of the second batch of plots in most cities that have been sold has decreased compared with the first batch, but it is still higher than the annual land price in 2020.

In this regard, Bai Wenxi believes that the overall land price is still firm, which may reflect the mentality that local governments are unwilling to follow the land price to the market in order to maintain land fiscal revenue, and also reflect the heavy pressure reality that local financial resources are currently facing.

"The stability of the overall land price also shows that there has been no qualitative change in the real estate market, and the overall increase in land prices is still the mainstream phenomenon. Under this circumstance, as long as the housing enterprises take the land and develop according to the rules, they can survive even if there is short-term liquidity tension. " Zhang Dawei told reporters.

Heavy blow or pain? The downward impact of the property market will be divided.

At present, the credit crisis caused by some housing enterprises is still continuing to ferment. Due to the postponement of bank loans in many places, the overall decline in data such as sales and investment in the real estate market has triggered market panic and pessimism, and the real estate market seems to have sunk to the bottom. How much impact will the liquidity difficulties faced by the whole industry have on the real estate industry?

Experts interviewed by the Securities Times agreed that the current credit crisis brought by some housing enterprises needs vigilance, or it will have an impact on the financing and transactions of private housing enterprises. Generally speaking, the risks brought by the tight liquidity of some housing enterprises are still controllable, and there are still enough financial tools and policy means to deal with the risks that the market may face.

In the view of Zhu Xiaohong, president of China Luxury House Research Institute, on the surface, the "three red lines" are stuck around the neck, and the strict policies have bound the hands and feet of housing enterprises, giving them no chance to breathe and no more opportunities to turn around. In fact, it has a lot to do with the inertia thinking of housing enterprises. I believe the government will definitely give enterprises the opportunity to correct their mistakes. Therefore, the deterrence and execution of the "three red lines" have not been highly valued in understanding. Many large-scale housing enterprises and brand housing enterprises that have experienced storms have easily responded with the attitude of old athletes. But this time I really made an empirical mistake. Did not grasp the time difference, did not make a good emergency plan.

"It can be said that this round of adjustment is a reorganization of the real estate industry." I love Cai, president of my family group holding research institute, told reporters that the real estate industry is currently in a painful period. Squeeze out the "development bubble" of high leverage, high turnover, disorderly expansion and scale expansion of real estate developers in the past, and make high-quality real estate developers and real estate developers with reasonable capital operation become the core of the market again, which is also the core value of maintaining the stable development order of the real estate market.

Tao Jin, deputy director of the Macro Department of Suning Financial Research Institute, told reporters that the recent credit crisis of some real estate enterprises may increase banks' worries about credit default of private real estate enterprises and increase banks' aversion. Depending on the degree of risk aversion of banks, it may affect a large number of private real estate enterprises. It should be noted that suppliers may require more real estate enterprises to conduct cash transactions in the future, further suppressing the financing environment and real estate market of real estate enterprises. Further deleveraging will also inhibit the growth of real estate investment and related industrial chains. More debt problems of real estate enterprises will lead to more bad debt risks in banks and financial systems, which needs to be re-examined.

Yan Yuejin reminded that housing enterprises that have recently experienced risks are generally large-scale housing enterprises. From the perspective of systemic risks, the number of housing enterprises with tight liquidity tends to increase, which is easy to form systemic risks and needs the vigilance of regulatory authorities. The pressure of small and medium-sized private housing enterprises has existed in recent years, and we should pay attention to the overall situation at all times.

Many experts also pointed out that in this downturn, because banks and other financial institutions will be more cautious about financing private housing enterprises, some "three good students" housing enterprises with abundant cash reserves, convenient financing and low financing costs will get opportunities, especially in the second round of local auction after raising the threshold.

Southwest Securities pointed out that, in fact, in the second round of centralized land supply, housing enterprises took the Top 10, totaling 79.7 billion yuan, while central enterprises took 88% of the land, and the competition dropped significantly. However, it is expected that in the second half of the year, they will face a worse environment in terms of competitive sales.

Let the real estate industry return to the essence of traditional manufacturing industry

Although we are currently in an eventful autumn in the real estate industry, it should be noted that the debt ratio of the real estate industry has been continuously improving since this year. Central enterprises and state-owned enterprises have developed steadily in the current downturn in the property market, and the overall land price has remained stable. The construction of rental affordable housing in various places continued to advance, and the construction of long-term real estate mechanisms continued to improve.

Cai believes that in the painful period of the real estate industry, some housing enterprises will change their past contempt for the project texture and their own cash coverage, constantly adjust and optimize, and finally let the whole industry return to the essence of traditional manufacturing.

In Tao Jin's view, it may be necessary for real estate enterprises to learn from the development experience of foreign real estate industry, set and maintain stable leverage ratio, debt ratio and asset scale, and keep a reasonable distance from complex tools in the financial field, so as to put an end to excessive diversification, avoid getting involved in areas where they are not competent, and return to strong businesses such as construction and development.

In addition, Tao Jin also believes that whether the current loan concentration is reasonable needs further observation. In the medium and long term, if the demand for housing loans continues to be unsatisfied and just needs to be curbed, leading to repeated financial chaos such as commercial loans flowing into the property market, it is necessary to re-examine the balance of real estate loans and the upper limit of personal housing loans.

Recently, Zhangjiakou, Guilin, Shenyang and other cities have successively issued "price limit orders", and the property market has gradually shown a two-way regulation trend, which clearly shows the policy trend of "stabilizing housing prices" in the real estate market, paying more attention to "stabilizing housing prices" rather than blindly "reducing prices".

"Further austerity policies will basically not appear again, and the policy has come to an end." Zhang Dawei told reporters that according to the policies of different cities, the follow-up may be relaxed according to the situation.

Yan Yuejin said that it is still necessary to guard against the possibility that the market will continue to cool down in the fourth quarter, and the key to judgment is the credit policy. From the perspective of stabilizing the development of enterprises, the subsequent real estate sales market needs to be liberalized. It is expected that a new wave of stable or loose policies will appear near 1 1, which will help some data stop falling.

Looking forward to the future, Cai believes that under the requirements of stable development, no real estate speculation and prosperity of the real estate market, the national policy framework will not change much in the future, but the fine-tuning of policies will be more biased towards cities, and cities will adjust according to actual conditions, that is, cities with high heat will continue to restrict purchases, and cities with weak heat or weak market will adopt loose policies.

Fu, spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics, said at the press conference on national economic operation in August that the real estate market is expected to maintain stable development as all parties continue to promote the regulation of the real estate market, curb unreasonable demand in the real estate market and ensure the release of normal demand. At the same time, the relevant systems of real estate market, multi-agent supply, multi-channel guarantee and simultaneous rent and purchase are also constantly improving.

Editor in Charge: Wu Zhichao