Three consecutive declines in oil prices are coming. If we go back to the 7 yuan era, will new energy still be fragrant?

After the oil price fell, the development of new energy vehicles caused a lot of discussion. In the past two years, the domestic sales of new energy vehicles were very hot. For example, 202 1, despite the epidemic, the overall sales of new energy vehicles in China are still very hot, with annual sales exceeding 3.5 million vehicles, up 157.8% year-on-year. Moreover, this is the rapid growth of new energy vehicles for several consecutive years. In the past few years, the average growth rate of new energy vehicles has reached at least 70%. Then why have new energy vehicles developed so fast in recent years? Many people can attribute the reason to high oil prices. Since March 2020, under the influence of the epidemic, global oil prices have continued to rise. At the peak, the international crude oil price soared to 130 USD, and the corresponding domestic No.92 gasoline also entered the 9 yuan era.

In the context of soaring oil prices, everyone's refueling costs are getting higher and higher. For example, in the lowest period of 2020, 92 # gasoline will only be about 5.5 yuan per liter. In the peak period of 2022, 92 # gasoline soared above 9.2 yuan in many places, which was equivalent to an increase of more than 67% in 92 # gasoline for more than two years. It would cost more 180 yuan to fill a box of 50 liters of gasoline. In the context of rising fuel costs, many people began to buy new energy vehicles, which is also one of the important driving forces to directly promote the rapid growth of new energy vehicle sales. However, recently, under the influence of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike and the global economic growth rate is not optimistic, international crude oil began to fall. If domestic refined oil products continue to fall on July 26th, it means that crude oil has already ushered in a three-day losing streak, with the cumulative decline reaching at least one ton above 950 yuan. After the decline in refined oil, the cost of refueling has also decreased accordingly, so many people may reconsider fuel vehicles when buying a car.

After all, compared with fuel vehicles, new energy vehicles have many disadvantages that cannot be changed at present. First, the charging efficiency is low. At present, there are two ways to charge new energy vehicles. One is fast charging, which usually takes about an hour. And it takes 10 hours to charge slowly, which is very slow.

Second, cruising range anxiety. Although the cruising range of new energy vehicles has increased significantly in recent years, at present, the cruising range of most new energy vehicles is less than 600 kilometers, which is not bad for urban transportation, but it is easy to cause anxiety when traveling far away. The fuel car will not have this kind of anxiety, and the fuel car can continue to drive as long as it is filled with oil, which is unmatched by new energy vehicles.

Third, the charging facilities are not perfect. At present, the charging infrastructure of new energy vehicles is mainly concentrated in some big cities, some small cities have imperfect infrastructure and few rural charging facilities. If you drive to these small places, new energy vehicles may not find a place to charge, which is very troublesome. It is for various reasons that not everyone can accept new energy vehicles at present. If the oil price falls, I believe many people are more inclined to buy fuel vehicles, especially those who often travel far away. Fuel vehicles are still the first choice. However, although new energy vehicles have many shortcomings, it is undeniable that new energy vehicles will be the future development trend, which is inevitable, and this development trend will not change because of the fall in oil prices.

There are several reasons why new energy vehicles can become the future development trend of automobiles. First, new energy vehicles will continue to make progress. Although there are various problems such as short cruising range, slow charging efficiency and imperfect infrastructure in new energy vehicles at present, these problems will be gradually solved with the continuous progress of new energy vehicle technology in the future. For example, at present, some electric ruler manufacturers have developed batteries with cruising range exceeding 1000 km, and some automobile manufacturers have developed charging technology with fast charging efficiency, and the charging time only takes about 20 minutes. In the future, with the continuous advancement of research and development, it is believed that the cruising range and charging efficiency of new energy vehicles will be significantly improved, and some problems that plague new energy vehicles will be solved.

Second, the future car will not be a simple means of transportation, but an intelligent terminal. The new energy vehicle is new, not only because its power structure is electric drive, but more importantly, the new energy vehicle will serve as an intelligent terminal, and it will become an intelligent terminal connecting work and life in the future. In the future, cars will not only be used for transportation, but also connect all aspects of life and work, which is incomparable to traditional fuel vehicles. Therefore, according to the development trend of new energy vehicles, it will be an inevitable trend for traditional fuel vehicles to be replaced. Just like mobile phones in those years, when they first came out, they were just used for making calls and sending text messages. However, with the continuous development of smart phones, mobile phones have become intelligent terminals integrating communication, entertainment, socialization, shopping, travel and other functions, and cars are likely to develop in this trend in the future.

Third, global carbon neutral demand. According to the global carbon emission target, it is predicted that the world will be carbon neutral by 2060. To achieve this goal, reducing the carbon emissions of automobiles will be an important way out. At present, cars are still one of the main sources of air pollution in the world. If we can reduce fuel vehicles in the future, it will effectively reduce air pollution. Therefore, it is an inevitable trend to develop new energy vehicles in the future, whether from the development trend of automobiles themselves or from the global carbon emission targets.