Is Japan incapable of intercepting North Korean ballistic missiles?

More than 70 years after the end of World War II, the Japanese archipelago once again sounded the air defense alarm. Over Hokkaido, the police were called twice in 15 days.

This is not an exercise, but a real threat: North Korea fired two ballistic missiles in succession, flew over Hokkaido and fell into the sea.

On September 15, the Japanese Ministry of National Defense said that the launch time of the missile was 06:57 Japan time. At 07:00, the Japanese received a short message from the government, warning that North Korea had launched a missile, and advising people to take shelter indoors or in underground bomb shelters.

From 07: 04 to 07:06, the missile flew over Hokkaido and finally fell into the eastern Pacific Ocean of Japan at 07: 16.

In other words, if the missile is aimed at a Japanese target, the shortest time for the Japanese to be hit from early warning may be only 4 minutes.

Japan's emergency warning

This is really short, and it may not be possible to reach a safe hiding place at all. Besides, will people see the alarm message immediately?

As for the previous August 29th, the time for the Japanese to protect themselves was even shorter: they received an alarm at 06:02, and three minutes later, at 06:05, the North Korean missile arrived over Hokkaido.

For Japan, defense is obviously quite important.

Japanese Defense Minister Hisunori Onodera said that Japan has been tracking and monitoring from missile launch to sea crash, and the government quickly judged that the target of the missile was not Japan.

However, Ichiro Fujimoto, a medical student who lives in Maebashi, northwest of Tokyo, told the BBC, "We have no experience in evacuation and we don't know what to do. Japan has not fought for more than 70 years. Usually, Japan is a very safe place. However, we don't know how powerful these missiles are or where they will land. This is enough to scare many people. "

Many people can't help asking: Why didn't Japan intercept North Korea's missiles?

Patriot Pac-3 air defense missile was tested at Yokota Air Force Base in Tokyo.

At present, Japan's missile defense system is divided into two platforms.

First of all, Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force has the Aegis ballistic missile defense system, which is currently deployed on Japanese, American and Korean warships in the region. Aegis can intercept missiles in the early stage of launch and in flight, that is, in the ascending stage.

Second, the Japan Air Self-Defense Force also has a short-range Patriot PAC-3 air defense missile, which provides terminal low-altitude protection, that is, intercepts the missile when it begins to land on the target.

The above two options together, the effect is good. However, Aegis is a sea-based anti-missile system. The premise of its use is that warships should stop at the right place at the right time, which requires accurate information and early warning.

Patriots can indeed effectively defend a certain place, but for a wider area, the protection effect is even worse.

Japan's defense minister said: North Korean missiles have been closely monitored.

Japan can consider other options in the future, but these options are expensive and take time to deploy.

For example, Japan can invest in deploying a land-based Aegis system to enhance its defense capabilities; Japan can also consider adding another layer of defensive measures, such as deploying Sadr.

However, it is worth noting that Sadr has not experienced actual combat tests. In addition, like the South Korean experience, Japanese consideration of such a deployment is expected to trigger tensions with China.

South Korea's deployment of Sadr has led to tensions between South Korea and China.

The problem is that none of the above defense systems can resist a large number of missiles launched without any information and early warning, thus ensuring the safety of the Japanese.

Therefore, the Japanese military community is also debating whether it should have more advanced equipment that can intercept or even destroy North Korean missiles at the moment they are launched.

J·B· Miller, an expert on security and defense in Northeast Asia who is now a visiting scholar at the Japan Institute of International Relations in Tokyo, said that Japan can buy Tomahawk cruise missiles or use the F-35A fighter jets it promised to buy in the future to attack North Korea's targets.

However, does Japan's pacifist constitution allow this? After World War II, Japan wrote the clause of abandoning war into the Constitution. However, with the growing regional threat, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has repeatedly called for amending the Constitution to allow Japan to expand its military capabilities.

The missile launched by North Korea crashed into the Pacific Ocean without causing harm to Japan, but Abe called it an "unprecedented threat".

No matter what the missile launched by North Korea means, Japan should strengthen its defense.