Pork stocks collectively floated red, and the price of live pigs rebounded for three consecutive months.

On June 16, the data of China pig breeding network showed that the price of live pigs (foreign three yuan) rose to 16.62 yuan/kg. Meng Wei, spokesman of the National Development and Reform Commission, said at the press conference on June 16 that in the future, with the reduction of domestic basic pig production capacity to a certain extent and the gradual increase of pork consumption in the second half of the year, the price of live pigs is expected to rebound as a whole. However, it is unlikely that the epidemic situation of African swine fever will surge in previous years.

The price of live pigs rebounded for three consecutive months.

According to the data of China Pig Breeding Network, since the price of pigs rebounded to 16.0 1 yuan/kg on May 20th, the price of pigs has been fluctuating around 8 yuan/kg, and many farmers cheered the return of pig prices to 8 yuan era.

According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in the 23rd week of 2022 (i.e.1June 6, 0, hereinafter referred to as this week), the weekly average of the total ex-factory price index of lean pork in 16 provinces (municipalities directly under the central government) was 20.93 yuan per kilogram, with a slight decrease of 0.5% from the previous week to an increase of 6,544.

In terms of wholesale price, data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs show that the average price of pork in the national agricultural products wholesale market was 2 1. 19 yuan/kg on June 6, up 1. 1% compared with yesterday.

Tong Wei, director of the Propaganda Department of Beijing Xinfadi Wholesale Market, told beijing business today reporter today that on June 6th, Beijing Xinfadi Market 1902 pigs were listed, with an average price of 19.6 yuan/kg, and the pig price increased steadily.

Wang Peng, a professor at Renmin University of China, explained to reporters the two main reasons for the recent continuous rebound in the price of live pigs. "The first is the impact of demand. Pork has its particularity in the consumption structure of China. Chinese people have the tradition and habit of eating pork, and the demand for pork has been great, especially after the epidemic situation has eased. Secondly, the rising cost of breeding pushes up the price. Recently, international uncertainties have led to the continuous rise in corn prices, the increase in feed costs, and the high cost of live pigs, which has driven the price of live pigs to rise. " .

In terms of average selling price, the average selling price of commercial pigs in May was between 14.8- 15.7 yuan/kg, up by about18.65,438+0% from the previous month, and the average selling prices announced by eight listed pig enterprises all increased from the previous month. Among them, Dabei Nong had the highest increase from the previous month. In May, the average selling price of commercial pigs was 15.4 yuan/kg, up 2 1.5% from the previous month.

Pork stocks float red collectively

With the continuous rise of pig prices, the stocks of major listed pig enterprises are also popular all the way, and whether pig enterprises will make new moves in the pig breeding sector has also become the focus.

In this regard, Wang Peng said that at present, most pig enterprises are still at a loss, and the short-term increase in pig prices will accelerate their production rotation, but it will not have much impact on the overall layout. However, Wang Peng also pointed out that due to the rising cost of feed, some pig enterprises have made some moves in the futures market and feed field.

Meng Wei said that from the perspective of the futures market, the contract prices of live pigs 1 1 due in September this year and 1 next year have gradually increased, reflecting the market's expectation of price recovery in the later period. However, we should also see that the current pig production capacity is reasonable and abundant. At the end of April, there were 4 1.77 million sows in China, which was in the green range of productivity. It is unlikely that the price of live pigs will rise sharply during African swine fever in previous years. It is expected that the price of pig food will run within the overall reasonable range.

As of June 16, 2022, two major listed pig breeding enterprises such as Mu Yuan, Shi Wen, New Hope and Tianbang 12 have released the pig sales data in May. In May, listed pig breeding enterprises slaughtered 1 1 10,000 pigs, a year-on-year increase of 40%, and the year-on-year growth rate of pig slaughter continued to converge. Take Mu Yuan, a giant in agriculture and animal husbandry, as an example, the output in May was 5.863 million heads, up 89.3% year-on-year.

In terms of average slaughter weight, Shi Wen, Tiankang Bio and Dabeinong Pig, the five major companies that announced the average slaughter weight, all gained weight, while Zhengbang Technology and Jinxinnong all lost weight. Among them, the average weight of Wen's shares in May was 120. 1 kg/head, an increase of 1. 1 kg/head from the previous month. In terms of industry, referring to Yongyi consulting data, the average weight of live pigs slaughtered in China is 1, 21.8kg/head, an increase of 4.6kg/head from the previous month.

The old cycle is over.

The rise in the price of live pigs for three consecutive months, coupled with the rise in the share price of pig enterprises, has led many people to discuss whether the new cycle has begun.

Pig farming is an industry with obvious periodicity, which is called "pig cycle" in the industry. A pig cycle generally goes through the process of high meat price, a large number of fertile sows, an increase in the supply of live pigs, a decrease in meat price, a large number of fertile sows being eliminated, a decrease in the supply of live pigs and an increase in meat price.

"The short cycle of pigs is mainly affected by pig breeding and slaughter, and usually takes about half a year as a cycle. The longer pig cycle, such as the skyrocketing pig price of 20 19 and the decline of the epidemic in 2020, is mainly affected by market rules, ranging from 24 months to 36 months. " Wang Peng explained.

In Wang Peng's view, the recent continuous increase in pig prices is mainly driven by the international situation, and it still takes time to start a new cycle.

"Since the second half of last year, a large number of enterprises and individuals have successively reduced production capacity and reduced inventory and output. Results In a short time, the supply was less than the demand, and the price of pork rose. However, the production capacity of many enterprises has not been completely reduced. So overall, a big cycle has not been completely completed, but the uncertainty of the international situation has led to rising costs. " Wang Peng explained, "At the same time, the current pork price is not particularly high compared with the previous high point. I don't think it is enough to cause a lot of resources and funds to be invested in the current market. "

In addition, Wang Peng also agrees with Meng Wei's statement that "it is unlikely that the price of live pigs will rise sharply during African swine fever in previous years". Wang Peng said that at present, China's pork reserves are sufficient, and the precedent of soaring pork prices has been recorded. It is expected that when the price rises again in the later period, it can be controlled within the normal range in time, and there will be no more ups and downs.

Hong Tao, an expert in agricultural products market circulation in the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and a professor at zhejiang yuexiu university of foreign languages International Business School, also said that recently, slaughter enterprises have raised their acquisition standards and demanded to raise the punishment standards for fat pigs, so as to better meet the market demand and reduce the willingness of enterprises to keep stocks, and the market supply will pick up.

June 15, Huachu. Com issued a notice on the bidding transaction of the twelfth batch of frozen pork in central reserve in 2022. The auction sold 40,000 tons, and this year, the national accumulated frozen pork reserve has reached 478,000 tons.

Regarding the market trend of pig prices, the interviewed experts all think that pig prices have risen steadily, but they are all within the normal fluctuation range, and it is unlikely to rise or fall sharply.

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