Why is Moon Jae-in worried that South Korea is facing a demographic cliff?

South Korean President Moon Jae-in convened a meeting of three departments on August 31, emphasizing that all policy measures must be mobilized to solve the problem of low fertility, otherwise the country may face a population cliff. Moon Jae-in said that in the first half of this year, the number of newborns in South Korea was only 188,000, a record low since 2008. South Korea's fertility rate is expected to decrease further this year from 1.17 last year, reaching a record low of 1.03.

If South Korea’s fertility rate is really only 1.03 this year, it means it has only reached half of the population replacement level. It is no wonder that Moon Jae-in is worried that South Korea is facing a population cliff. So why has South Korea fallen into an extremely low fertility rate?

South Korea is a narrow and densely populated country, with a population density more than three times that of China and poor natural resources. In the early 1960s, South Korea's fertility rate was as high as 6.0. Under this population pressure, South Korea began to fully implement the policy of encouraging fewer births in 1962. Coupled with South Korea's economic takeoff from the 1960s to the 1980s, South Korea's fertility rate dropped sharply. By 1995, the total fertility rate dropped to 1.63.

Under such circumstances, the South Korean government approved a change in population policy in the mid-1990s, canceling policies that encouraged fewer births to prevent further declines in fertility levels. However, after the policy adjustment, South Korea's fertility rate did not rebound. In 2004, the fertility rate further dropped to 1.2. The extremely low fertility rate caused great concern among the Korean government and the opposition. In 2005, the "Basic Law on Low Fertility Rate and Population Aging" was passed and implemented, and the "Committee on Low Fertility Rate and Population Aging" was established, chaired by the president himself. , implement policies that encourage childbirth.

Measures to encourage childbearing include: after the child is born, women can have one year to raise their children at home, receive a monthly basic salary of 400,000 to 500,000 won (about 400 to 500 US dollars), and retain their position. Families with multiple children receive subsidies or discounts in housing, car purchases, and electricity bills. Many local governments in South Korea also reward more children. For example, Seoul Jung-gu implemented a progressive reward system in 2007. The more children you have, the higher the reward you will receive per child. For 10 children, you can get up to 91.2 million won. Award, equivalent to approximately $90,000.

The Korean Family Health and Welfare Association also collected many slogans to encourage childbirth from the people. The winning slogans include: "Dad, I am lonely alone. I want younger siblings", "Two children are better than each other." One child is happy, three children are happier than two children," "Multiple candles are of course brighter than the light of one candle," "The greatest inheritance left to children is brothers and sisters," etc.

However, policies to encourage childbirth have failed to effectively increase the fertility rate, which even hit a record low of 1.08 in 2005. South Korea's fertility rate has basically hovered between 1.1 and 1.3 in the past decade.

Due to extremely low fertility rates, South Korea’s population is aging more rapidly than Japan. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics of Korea, as of November 1 last year, there were 51.27 million people in the country, including 6.78 million people over 65 years old, accounting for 13.6% of the total population, exceeding the number of children aged 0-14 for the first time. , the latter has a population of 6.77 million.

Moon Jae-in warned that if efforts are not made to encourage women to have children and take measures such as childcare, housing and employment reforms, the damage to the country will be "irreversible." However, the experience of countries around the world shows that , It is easy to reduce the fertility rate, but it is very difficult to increase the fertility rate. South Korea has not yet found a prescription that can effectively increase the fertility rate