How does a person who knows nothing about stocks?

Let's start with the conclusion:

First, understanding the nature of the stock market is more important than anything else if you want to make money from stock trading. Any study of stock knowledge and the formulation of any investment strategy are inseparable from the understanding of the nature of the stock market.

second, for 95% of retail investors, my suggestion is simple, that is, no stock trading! Investment funds or fixed income products are better choices.

Third, stock investment is very complicated and there are many things to learn. Stock trading is essentially a technical activity, just like playing chess, piano and football. To reach a higher level, you need "the right method+persistent practice" and a certain talent. Want to opportunistic, just a few second-hand news or a few k-line charts to make money, is undoubtedly self-deception.

When you see this, you might as well ask yourself first, are you a person with determination and perseverance who can stand loneliness and learn something well? If not, you can close the webpage. If so, please continue reading.

Here are some core questions that I think are related to the understanding of the nature of stocks:

1. What are the kinds of understanding of stocks?

second, what are the core characteristics of stock prices?

third, how to invest in stocks correctly?

fourth, what knowledge do you need to learn?

If you just "buy stocks" on Baidu online, you will find that there is a great difference in cognition about stock investment. Some people think that stock trading is very simple, while others think it is difficult. Some people think that stock trading is a means to preserve and increase the value of wealth, while others think that China stock market is simply a scam. To sum up, there are generally four kinds of knowledge about stocks: academic knowledge, knowledge of stock gods, knowledge of retail investors and knowledge of practical practitioners.

Academic understanding: In the university finance class, you will be told that the stock value is the discount of future cash flow, and then you will be taught a bunch of models full of various assumptions, as if you can really calculate the stock value through these models. There is no problem with these things in theory, but the defect is that there are too many assumptions about the future, so their use in practice is actually limited.

understanding of stock gods: here, it mainly refers to all folk stock gods, most private equity funds, some Public Offering of Fund, some brokerage research institutes and other institutions that fool others into investing in stocks. These people often simplify the matter of stock trading for their own interests and to cater to the psychology of a large number of retail investors who get something for nothing, giving people the impression that stock trading can easily make quick money. For example, stock gods often tell you that a stock is about to have a daily limit, and in the morning, they tell you that the market will rebound violently in the afternoon. In short, you can get rich quickly by following the stock gods.

understanding of retail investors: when most retail investors first entered the market, they knew nothing about stocks, and their understanding of stocks mainly came from various stock gods. Therefore, retail investors generally held the idea of getting rich quickly through stock trading in the early days. However, with the constant losses in the stock market, most retail investors' understanding of stocks will slide to the other extreme: "China stock market is deceptive", "the stock market is made by the government and bookmakers" and so on.

what practitioners know: the stock market can't be accurately described by models, and it's not as simple as the stock gods say, but it's by no means a scam as many retail investors say. Practical practitioners believe that through long-term study and accumulation of a lot of experience, stock investment is regular and profitable, but we should always be in awe of the market, and we should have a prudent and reasonable expectation of the yield of stock trading, and we must never have the idea of getting rich in the short term.

first, the stock price is a multivariable system. There are thousands of people who speculate in stocks in Qian Qian. Everyone buys and sells stocks for different reasons, such as fundamentals, technical skills, listening to news, and even speculating by feeling. If the stock market is regarded as a function, then the above-mentioned factors that affect the stock price are a series of independent variables, and the stock price is a dependent variable, as shown in the following figure:

The respondents are lazy, and only a few independent variables are marked on the figure. There are many factors that actually affect the stock price, and the stock price is essentially a super-high-dimensional function. Any small change of an independent variable may have a great impact on the final output result. In this sense, the stock price is actually a little similar to the weather system, which is a highly chaotic system with many influencing factors.

it is worth noting that the above understanding of stock prices actually answers a common question, that is, why do experts' predictions sound reasonable, but the actual results are often far from perfect? One of the most important reasons is that the analysis of experts is often taken out of context.

suppose there are 1 variables that affect the stock price (in fact, far more than this), of which 6 are bullish and 4 are bearish, so it's actually very easy to be bullish or bearish. Just choose 1 variables that are bullish or bearish at will, and then make up a set of rhetoric around these variables. The logic of this rhetoric is self-consistent inside, so at first glance, it really feels like that. Most of the opinions of stock critics you see on TV are But in fact, the formation of the stock price is by no means so simple. These 1 variables not only have different weights, but also have different roles in the stock price system. Therefore, the actual input results can not be approximated by randomly taking 1 variables!

second, the stock price is an open system. Here can be compared with playing chess. Chess is a closed system. In the process of playing chess, the response of your opponent is limited in principle. Although the optional response can be a very large number, the total number is still limited in theory. But stocks are different. Everything can happen in the stock market, and all the factors that affect the stock price are virtually inexhaustible. Even if we try to establish a model with 1, independent variables to calculate the stock price output, we still can't guarantee the accuracy of the results. Because there are still a lot of factors, such as tricky listed companies and national policy mistakes, it is almost impossible to be predicted in advance. The simplest example is last year's stock market crash. The CSRC rashly cleaned up the capital allocation, thus inducing the stock market crash. This factor has never appeared in the analysis logic of any brokerage analyst beforehand. However, the destructive power caused by this "out-of-system variable" must be known to everyone.

With this in mind, you can understand why novices are often warned not to take heavy positions easily in the stock market, let alone leverage easily. Because of the openness of the stock market, it is impossible for anyone to analyze the stock market comprehensively. Even if the analysis logic sounds perfect, once the factors outside the system intervene, this logic will be broken instantly. Long-term heavy bets on a few stocks will pay a heavy price sooner or later because of the black swan incident.

thirdly, the stock price is a probabilistic system. For this, students who often play cards or mahjong should have some experience. For example, in the process of playing mahjong, you will make an intuitive judgment on what cards the opponent wants to play according to what cards the opponent has played, the situation of playing cards in the pool, and your understanding of the opponent's personality, and then play cards that the opponent has a high probability of not playing. This thinking process also exists in stock investment. We will make a probabilistic judgment on the stock price trend according to our own experience, and then bet on the side with a big win.

some people may wonder how the probability here comes about. In fact, the fundamental reason lies in the imperfection of information. In the process of playing cards, if we can peek at the opponent's cards, the probability will be basically eliminated, and we can make the best response according to the cards in the opponent's hand. However, in fact, we can't peek at the opponent's cards. We can only make a probabilistic guess on the cards in the opponent's hand through the cards that have appeared and our understanding of the other party.

The same is true for stock trading. Because the stock price system is multivariable and open, our grasp of stock information is always imperfect, which leads us to make any judgment on stock price, which is only a probabilistic guess in the final analysis. There are often many so-called folk stock gods who will make accurate predictions from day to hour to minute on the trend and position of indexes or individual stocks. This kind of people's intentions are extremely suspicious, because the premise of accurate prediction is to master perfect information! The imperfection of stock information fundamentally determines our judgment of stock price, which can only be vague and probabilistic.

an interesting topic is also introduced here, that is, in the stock market, the right decision may get the wrong result, and the wrong decision may also get the right result. This is quite different from many things in our daily life. Many things in daily life are deterministic, and as long as the correct process is followed, the correct result will usually be obtained. For example, cooking, as long as you follow the recipe step by step, the taste of the cooked food will not be too bad. For example, writing a program can be compiled as long as you don't make grammatical mistakes.

But stocks are different. The correct process and the correct result are only related by probability rather than certainty. For example, in a bull market, you can still make money by buying a few stocks at random, but obviously, buying stocks at random is by no means a correct investment method. If you make money because of the bull market, you will get the conclusion that you can make money by buying stocks at random, and you will return the money to the market with interest sooner or later.

Therefore, in the process of stock investment, it is very important to think independently and form your own investment system. If you just follow the trend to buy stocks, then even if you make money, you can't judge whether you bought it right or just because you are lucky; If you lose money, you can't judge whether you bought it wrong or just because of bad luck.

fourth, the stock price is a random process. Here, an extremely simplified model is used to illustrate:

Assuming that a stock market has only two ups and downs, and there is no distinction between the ups and downs, and assuming that its initial state is Stock Market 1, then the next movement direction of the stock price should be a function of all internal variables and external variables. However, as we have explained above, it is impossible to master all the variables inside and outside the system because of the ultra-high dimension of the variables inside the system and the unpredictability of the variables outside the system in advance, so it is impossible to accurately predict the next trend of the stock price.

all we can do is to make a judgment on the probability distribution of the next trend of the stock price based on the available information. For example, we can judge:

P (stock market 1→ stock market 2A)= 6%

P (stock market 1→ stock market 2B)= 4%

As for the direction in which the stock price will move, we can only look at the actual results. Now suppose that the stock price moves from stock market 1 to stock market 2B, then on the basis of stock market 2B, we need to judge the probability distribution of stock price's next rise and fall again. It is worth noting here that, generally speaking, the independent variables that determine the rise and fall of the stock market, as well as the stock price function itself, also change with time, especially the independent variable of emotional surface, which changes particularly violently with time and has a great influence on the probability distribution of short-term stock price rise and fall.

so generally speaking:

P (stock market 1→ stock market 2A)! = P (stock market 2B→ stock market 3C)

P (stock market 1→ stock market 2B)! = P (stock market 2B→ stock market 3D)

Because the stock price movement is a random process, you will find that ordinary serious employees will not easily recommend stocks to outsiders. Because even a very experienced investment manager can only have a rough judgment on the probability distribution of the current market trend, and these probability distributions may change dramatically with the passage of time. Seeing one more stock today doesn't mean seeing more in a week, but I recommended a stock to you today. I don't always have to update you with my latest views every day, do I? But if I don't update my point of view all the time, you will probably operate according to my outdated point of view, and finally lose money and think I am unreliable.

Having said that, I hope you can initially realize the complexity of the stock market, and don't take it for granted that the stock market is an ATM. Of course, on the other hand, there is no need to feel overly desperate. Although the stock market is complex, the stock price function can be simplified from ultra-high dimension to very low dimension if a series of constraints are met, and with appropriate risk control measures, the stock market is still profitable.

let's go to the third part: the correct method of stock investment.

there are two things to do when you get started in the stock market. The first thing is to learn basic knowledge, and the second thing is to have a positive outlook. Basic knowledge, it is recommended to buy a textbook for securities qualification: Securities Trading. Focus on the chapters of trading rules, and basically you can know the trading rules by heart; You will also have a certain understanding of the functions of each participant in the securities industry. If you have leisure time, you need to do two things to buy a book "... Show All

Introduction to Stock Market". The first one is to learn basic knowledge, and the second one is to have a positive outlook.

Basic knowledge, it is recommended to buy a textbook for securities qualification: Securities Trading. Focus on the chapters of trading rules, and basically you can know the trading rules by heart; You will also have a certain understanding of the functions of each participant in the securities industry. If you have leisure time, buy a copy of Securities Investment Analysis, and you can have a basic understanding of each family's views. Others, if they have no financial knowledge, can learn how to read financial reports; Basic financial knowledge is a must. You can watch the rest, but you can't.

when you have the basic knowledge, the next thing to do is to have a positive outlook. Three views are three viewpoints.

The first one is that security is higher than profitability

Many investors are brought into the market by the super-high returns of the stock market, which is the same for all classes. Have you noticed that the stock market is active this year, and there are more investment problems in Zhihu. The stock market is profiteering, which is true; But all profiteering industries have high risks behind them. You need to know that in the profiteering industry, if you still want to pursue profiteering; Then you can only die faster. Pursuing safety in the profiteering industry, as long as you can survive, you can get "profiteering". This is common sense, and many investors can understand this well in his field and avoid it; But it is often ignored in the field of stock investment.

The second one is that you don't trust and dream.

After the launch of "Yu 'ebao" last year, people have attacked financial enterprises for being "rigid and outdated". A "new wind" of "internet thinking" has blown into the industry, and the so-called "free thinking" is also true. In fact, similar thinking is very common in the field of stock market investment; China's securities fees in all fields are the lowest in the world. In China, the investment consulting information that most investors are exposed to is free information. " Internet thinking "says well, when customers don't pay, customers are products." The same is true of stock market investment. After the free consultation, the audience of the consultation is operated as a product. While pursuing free consultation, investors often throw their fate and wallets into other people's hands. Then, what happens to these people depends on each other's conscience.

Everything has a price. It's a dream to get huge profits without paying anything. This is common sense < P > Thirdly, certainty is the only thing that can be pursued < P > A person who works hard in any industry has a process of pursuing certainty; Gradually handy, insight into risks, control the rhythm; Have a certain grasp, and then get a promotion and a raise. If you are more courageous, you can add leverage, and then become a general manager, ceo, marry Bai Fumei and welcome people.