Five key words to understand this year’s real estate policies and market signals

The housing issue is closely related to every citizen, and real estate policies and market trends are also one of the focuses of attention at the two sessions every year.

Securities Times reporters sorted out the expressions of real estate-related policies during the two sessions, including government work reports, official statements from industry leaders and regulatory authorities, and extracted real estate control policies, real estate financial policies, real estate tax legislation, new Five major keywords such as urbanization and real estate market situation. Focusing on these five major keywords, we will help you analyze this year's real estate policies and market signals.

Real estate control policy: Adhere to "housing is for living, not for speculation" to maintain the continuity and stability of the policy

The current real estate market has overall cooled down. At the end of last year, there were some changes in the real estate control policy in some cities. Fine-tuning is interpreted by some people as a signal of regulation or relaxation. Therefore, the direction of this year's regulation policy has attracted much attention.

As for the real estate regulation policy, the government work report states: "Better solve the housing problem of the masses, implement the main responsibilities of the city, reform and improve the housing market system and security system, and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. Continue to promote The construction of affordable housing and the renovation of urban shantytowns will ensure the basic housing needs of disadvantaged groups."

Because the number of words and the wording on real estate in the government work report are fewer than in previous years, the wording is also much calmer. In particular, keywords such as "housing is for living, not for speculation", "regulation", and "housing prices" were not mentioned by many people, which were interpreted by many as a signal that this year's regulatory policies may be loosened, and were even used by some real estate agencies and property sales companies to attract home buyers. Slogans for buying a house.

However, when Wang Menghui, Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, appeared at the finale of the "Ministerial Channel" at the last session of the two sessions, he was asked, "This year's government work report no longer emphasizes 'housing is for living, not for speculation.' Does this mean that 'housing is for living, not for speculation'?" "As the supervision of the real estate industry has been adjusted," he made it clear that this year we must steadily implement the work plan for the long-term mechanism for the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, and specifically we must achieve five "persistences." First, adhere to the positioning of “housing for living, not speculation”. Second, we must persist in improving the housing market system and housing security system. Third, insist on implementing the main responsibilities of the city. City-specific policies and classified guidance must be implemented, and market monitoring, early warning, and assessment and evaluation mechanisms must be continuously improved. In particular, the responsibilities of stabilizing land prices, house prices, and expectations must be implemented. Fourth, insist on adjusting the structure and changing the mode, especially vigorously cultivating and developing the housing rental market, focusing on solving the housing problems of new citizens. Fifth, maintain the continuity and stability of policies and prevent ups and downs.

Wang Menghui made a more detailed statement on this year's real estate control policies, among which, "housing is for living, not for speculation", stabilizing land prices, stabilizing housing prices, stabilizing expectations, cultivating and developing the housing rental market, and maintaining policies Key words such as continuity and stability and preventing ups and downs were mentioned again, which is equivalent to indirectly denying that "industry supervision has been adjusted."

Industry insiders believe that this statement is consistent with the caliber of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development’s annual work conference and the Central Economic Work Conference at the end of December last year, which means that real estate industry managers do not want the property market to relax too quickly, but must maintain policies. Continuity and stability, this general policy has basically remained unchanged. In the future, real estate market policies will still crack down on investment speculation and protect real residences. Even if some urban policies continue to be adjusted, the general principle of local main responsibilities requiring a stable real estate market remains unchanged and prevent rising and falling housing prices.

Real estate financial policy: The general policy remains unchanged and strict control of highly leveraged real estate companies and investment in speculative housing loans

After the central bank comprehensively lowered the required reserve ratio in January this year, the industry generally expected that liquidity would The easing will bring significant benefits to the real estate industry that is hungry for funds. On the one hand, the financial pressure on real estate companies is expected to be alleviated, and on the other hand, mortgage interest rates are expected to be reduced. At the same time, real estate companies have released intensive financing plans this year, and some banks in some cities have lowered first-home loan interest rates and even lowered the down payment ratio of first-home loans, once again triggering market expectations for the relaxation of real estate financial credit policies. Therefore, this year's real estate financial credit policy has attracted much attention.

In this regard, Guo Shuqing, Secretary of the Party Committee of the Central Bank and Chairman of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, made it clear that the general direction of real estate financial policy will not change in the next stage. He also said that structural deleveraging is to reduce the leverage ratio of enterprises while stabilizing the leverage ratio of the residential sector. Because the leverage ratio of households has increased rapidly in recent years, this part of leverage mostly involves personal housing loans, which may be related to residents buying and speculating houses. Government departments must control the increase in hidden debt and resolve the existing debt.

As for whether there will be restrictions on the scale of real estate loans, Wang Zhaoxing, vice chairman of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, said that in the field of real estate loans, supervision also adopts a differentiated attitude and supports based on risk. Strengthen the monitoring of real estate loans, and control the loans of those real estate companies with poor qualifications and high leverage; strengthen the strict control of speculative real estate loans, and prevent the entry of real estate through shadow banking channels to ensure the healthy and stable development of real estate; We will continue to protect the basic needs of housing loans, and we must also strictly control investment and speculative mortgage loans. Real estate finance is a key area to prevent risks.

On March 13, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued the "Notice on Further Improving the Quality and Effectiveness of Financial Services for Small and Micro Enterprises in 2019", which requires all banking financial institutions to strengthen the flow of loan funds to small and micro enterprises. Monitor the loan and perform post-loan inspections to ensure that loan funds are truly used to support small and micro enterprises and the real economy, and prevent small and micro enterprise loan funds from being misappropriated to government platforms, real estate and other regulatory areas to create new risks and hidden dangers.

The above official statement has made it very clear that the general policy of real estate finance this year remains unchanged, and will be treated differently according to risks. Those real estate companies with poor qualifications and high debt ratios as well as investment speculative individuals will be Housing mortgage loans must be strictly controlled, but financing for high-quality housing companies and loans for basic housing needs will still be supported and met. However, those who hope that the "water" flowing to small and micro enterprises can be diverted to the real estate field may be disappointed.

Real estate tax legislation: Steady progress and currently working hard to improve the draft law

Real estate tax is related to everyone’s interests. Every official statement on real estate tax can stir up people’s sensitive nerves. However, there has been no progress in the real estate tax for many years, and it has become the "Sword of Damocles" hanging over people's heads. It was not until September last year that real estate tax was officially included in the National People's Congress's five-year legislative plan that substantial progress was made. Therefore, the latest developments in real estate tax have also attracted much attention.

The statement in the government work report on March 5 was to "improve the local tax system and steadily promote real estate tax legislation." There is only one word difference between this statement and the statement in last year's government work report, which was changed from "steady" to "steady", but in fact there is no substantive change.

During the second session of the 13th National People’s Congress on March 8, news came out that “a real estate tax law will be enacted this year.” This was misunderstood by many people as saying that a real estate tax law will be enacted this year. After the announcement, Hong Kong's mainland property stocks plummeted.

In fact, Li Zhanshu, Chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, said: "Concentrate efforts to implement the major legislative matters determined by the Party Central Committee, including reviewing the Civil Code and formulating the Criminal Law Amendment (11th) , Basic Medical and Health Promotion Law, Real Estate Tax Law, Export Control Law, Community Correction Law, Military-civilian Integrated Development Law, Veterans Security Law, Government Discipline Law, amend the Securities Law, Active Military Officers Law, Military Service Law, People's Armed Police Law, National The research and drafting of legislation such as the Organic Law of the People's Congress, the Rules of Procedure of the National People's Congress, the Biosafety Law, and the Yangtze River Protection Law must be stepped up to ensure that they are completed as scheduled. "He just said that this year is the legislative research and drafting of multiple laws. Work, the real estate tax law is just one of them, and it is also one of the "steady advancement" work steps in the government work report.

On March 9, Wu Ritu, deputy chairman of the Financial and Economic Committee of the National People’s Congress, gave a clear progress on the real estate tax: “In accordance with the requirements of the central government, the real estate tax law was formulated by the Budget Working Committee of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress and The Ministry of Finance has jointly organized the drafting. At present, relevant departments are working hard to improve the draft law and demonstrate major issues. When conditions are ripe, it will be submitted to the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress for initial review.”

On the same day, the National People’s Congress announced Liu Junchen, deputy director of the Legislative Affairs Committee of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, also said: "In accordance with the legislative plan of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, relevant parties are now studying and drafting a draft real estate tax law, and relevant work is progressing steadily."

Judging from the latest statement, , the draft real estate tax law may have been formed into a text. After soliciting opinions internally, there are still some important differences and problems. It needs to be demonstrated multiple times and a consensus is reached before being revised and improved. When submitting for preliminary review, all aspects will be comprehensively considered. The influencing factors should be exercised with caution, and then public opinions will be publicly solicited and reviewed again. Finally, after the review is passed and the legislation is completed, various localities will also formulate implementation details for further implementation. It can be seen that there is still a long way to go before actual implementation.

New urbanization: Adhering to the central city to lead the development of urban agglomerations, the speed of urbanization will still accelerate

Under the influence of city-specific policies and classified regulation, the national real estate market has cooled down as a whole, and some Real estate companies are not optimistic about the future market development prospects of the industry. However, some real estate companies believe that China's urbanization is not over and the real estate market still has room for development.

As for new urbanization, the government work report also clearly states: "Promote new urbanization in depth. Adhere to leading the development of urban agglomerations with central cities. Do a good job in settling the agricultural transfer population and promote basic public services in cities and towns." Covering the permanent population. There are a large number of old residential areas in cities and towns, which need to be vigorously renovated and upgraded, supporting facilities such as water, electricity and gas should be updated, the installation of elevators should be supported, and living services such as convenience markets, convenience stores, pedestrian streets, parking lots, and barrier-free passages should be improved. Facilities. ”

Industry insiders believe that the report has emphasized “deeply promoting new urbanization” for many years, but lacks specific measures. This time it clearly states that “adhering to the central city to lead the development of urban agglomerations” confirms the metropolitan area. The logic of development. This means that in the future, the metropolitan area with the central city as its core will attract more industries and people, while the future development of towns other than the central city and its metropolitan area may be even more bleak, and the polarization pattern of cities and towns is unavoidable.

As for the development of China's new urbanization, officials from many ministries and commissions have clearly expressed optimistic expectations.

He Lifeng, director of the National Development and Reform Commission, said: "China's new urbanization is accelerating. There are now more than 600 cities in the country, more than 400 of which are large and medium-sized cities, and the others are small cities. Last year, the urbanization rate of the permanent population reached 59.58%. Every time the urbanization rate increases by one percentage point, nearly 14 million people will move from rural areas to cities. This will not only increase investment in urban public service facilities, but also release huge consumer demand for food, clothing, housing, and transportation. At the same time, it will make up for the shortcomings of development. Ning Jizhe, director of the National Bureau of Statistics, also said: "By the end of 2018, the number of permanent residents in cities and towns across the country will be further released." The urbanization rate is 59.58%, and the urbanization rate of the registered population is 43.37%, which is an increase of 1.06 and 1.02 percentage points respectively from the previous year. It is very close to the 2020 goals proposed in the "National New Urbanization Plan (2014-2020)" , the urbanization rate of the permanent population will reach about 60%, and the urbanization rate of the registered population will reach about 45%. In the next two years, China’s urbanization rate will still accelerate.”

Real estate market situation: stable land prices. House prices are expected to be stable and prevent sharp ups and downs

In February this year, affected by the Spring Festival holiday and the ebb of home buying in third- and fourth-tier cities, the transaction volume in key cities halved month-on-month and dropped 30% year-on-year, indicating a significant cooling.

However, after the Spring Festival, the real estate market transactions in some cities showed signs of recovery. Thousands of people rushed to grab houses when some real estate projects opened. Some real estate projects released information that prices would increase... some people mistakenly thought it was the real estate market. A sign of recovery. Therefore, in addition to policy trends, real estate market trends have also attracted much attention.

Regarding the current real estate market situation, Wang Menghui, Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, said at the finale of the "Ministerial Channel" at the last session of the Two Sessions: "Since last year, we have resolutely implemented the decisions and arrangements of the Party Central Committee and the State Council. Thanks to the joint efforts of all parties, the real estate market has generally maintained a stable operating trend, and market expectations have also undergone positive changes, which are mainly reflected in three aspects: first, the growth rate of housing transaction area has slowed down; second, the transaction price of housing. Overall stable; third, housing expectations, that is, market expectations are gradually becoming more rational."

Although Wang Menghui did not speak directly about this year's market trends, especially the trend of housing prices, he put forward the expectations for this year. The work plan for the steady implementation of the long-term mechanism for the stable and healthy development of the real estate market must specifically adhere to five "persistences". He emphasized: "It is necessary to continuously improve the market monitoring, early warning and assessment and evaluation mechanisms, especially to stabilize land prices, stabilize house prices, Fulfill the responsibility of stabilizing expectations” and “maintain the continuity and stability of policies to prevent ups and downs.”

This means that this year’s real estate market is still dominated by “stability”. Land prices, house prices, and expectations must be “stable.” Stable house prices mean that they cannot rise or fall sharply. Some people in the industry also believe that it is difficult to change the general trend of downward adjustment in the overall market after the Spring Festival when individual markets recover. In the future, first- and second-tier cities are expected to stabilize at a low level, and some third- and fourth-tier cities will face certain downward pressure.