Reflections on studying the spirit of the two sessions

Reflections on the 2010 National Two Sessions Government Work Report Undoubtedly, the Chinese government delivered the most beautiful report card against the backdrop of the financial crisis last year, attracting the attention of the world. This year's so-called CPPCC Proposal No. 1 set off a frenzy of low-carbon speculation in the stock market two days ago. There are different opinions on how to interpret the Prime Minister's work report. Kaitai’s initial feeling is that there are not many bright spots that make the capital market particularly exciting. The statement about actively expanding direct financing can even be understood as negative, and it also indicates that a large number of new share issuances will become the norm in the future, but the overall situation is reassuring and exciting. Regarding this year's GDP, the target is 8%. The positioning is relatively conservative. The emphasis is on structural transformation and quality. 8% is naturally not a difficulty. The difficulty lies in quality and transformation. The problem is that there is a problem with the positioning of CIP. The 3% target Management is too conservative. In fact, moderate inflation is beneficial to economic recovery. If the government is too afraid of the rise in CPI, it will inevitably be too conservative in controlling credit funds. It can be said that the CPI positioning of 3% is a failure. In fact, positioning it at 3.8% is a more appropriate target. The current positioning cannot fully activate the continued investment of private capital, and it also indicates that the government's fiscal policy will tend to be conservative this year. Regarding real estate regulation, it is undoubtedly the focus of this two sessions, but from the perspective of policy statements, it should be louder than louder. In particular, the capital investment in affordable housing is smaller than market expectations, and the impact on the current commercial housing market will be limited. After the two sessions, if no larger and more sustained regulatory policies are introduced, no matter how the actual housing prices perform, the real estate sector on the stock market can consider building a mid-term position. The issue of adjusting and improving national income distribution is the focus of discussion at the two sessions. Undoubtedly, the current Gini coefficient exceeds 0.5, which is a very dangerous signal. If it exceeds 0.6, social instability will inevitably intensify. This is a real problem that the government cannot avoid. However, if appreciation is used to increase the income of ordinary citizens, the operating costs of enterprises will increase and they will be at a disadvantage in international competition. Hopefully, this is not a false proposition during the Two Sessions. Effectively increasing national income not only involves fairness, justice and social stability, but also stimulates domestic demand and successfully realizes economic transformation. The author’s suggestions are: First, we must pay attention to tax fairness, especially focusing on the large and letting go of the small. In particular, it is feasible to raise the salary income tax tax point to 5,000 yuan; second, the state should increase the injection of social security for citizens, especially medical care. , education, and pensions to alleviate citizens’ worries; the third is to effectively create conditions so that citizens can increase property income and share the fruits of reform and opening up. This requires the government to pay more attention to the fairness and transparency of the investment environment and to care more about capital. market, develop and expand the financial services industry. Regarding the issue of emerging industries, after the two sessions, supporting measures will inevitably be introduced one after another. Low-carbon and environmental protection are the general directions, which is also related to the sustainability of our future development. In this way, there are long-term investment opportunities in new energy, new materials, and new economy. Personally, I am more optimistic about the low-carbon concept of nuclear power and new energy vehicle batteries, and the new economic growth model of tri-network integration and 3G is also more optimistic about. Investment sector. During the two sessions, it doesn’t actually matter how the market moves. What’s important is that China’s economy continues to improve and will not change. What’s important is that the general direction of the stock market will not change. As for next week, you can pay attention to opportunities in securities, World Expo, aviation, and banks. If it does not break 3006 points, you can hold it patiently. If the Shanghai Composite Index exceeds 3076 with a heavy volume of 150 billion, you can boldly go long. Even if the market chooses to go down, it is limited and short-lived. With the economy improving and stock index futures about to be launched, there is no reason to be dissatisfied, let alone give up the good opportunity to build a position in the midline.