Why did the former Yugoslavia disintegrate twice in 10 year?

The Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (also known as "Second Yugoslavia"), which was born after the Second World War, has developed peacefully for 45 years. Why did 199 1 disintegrate and a bitter civil war broke out? The traditional saying is: Yugoslavs always struggle with each other or strive for independence. After Tito died in 1980, no leader had his prestige. In addition, with the end of the Cold War, the inherent ethnic contradictions within Yugoslavia led to the conflict of economic interests, which led to a political crisis and eventually promoted the division of Yugoslavia.

There is some truth in this statement, but the fact is that all ethnic groups in Yugoslavia have lived together in one country for nearly a century, established all-round ties with each other, have close economic relations, and mixed-race families abound. Therefore, most of the extreme hatred that appeared in the 1990s was the product of war and opportunistic political practice, not the original existence.

So, why should Slovenia be independent? The answer is ironic: it was European integration and free trade that led to the disintegration of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. This makes Western Europe a safer and more economically attractive place for small countries. After the First World War, Slovenia avoided being carved up by Italy, Germany and Austria by uniting with other southern Slavs. However, by the end of 1980s, it became more and more popular that Slovenia and Croatia, with relatively rich economies, were separated from other backward partners and close to Western Europe.

Slovakia and Croatia held several rounds of negotiations with Serbia led by Milosevic, but failed to reach an agreement. At that time, with the exception of Germany, European powers and the United States explicitly opposed the separation of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia for the purpose of maintaining stability in the Balkans. "But what is puzzling is that almost at the same time, a public report of the US Central Intelligence Agency made people seem to see the contradiction of the US policy toward Yugoslavia. Some historians now analyze that it was the CIA report that made the avoidable disintegration irreversible. "

At the end of 1990, the CIA submitted a forecast report on the situation in Yugoslavia to President Bush who was deadlocked in the Gulf War. The report said: "Yugoslavia will disintegrate in the next 18 months." This prediction caused an uproar in the world, and the Yugoslav authorities immediately issued a statement, strongly protesting and condemning it. Most international public opinion thought it was sheer nonsense. It is by no means out of goodwill or accident that the United States issued this report at a delicate time in Yugoslavia. At first, the international community generally expressed doubts about its prediction, but in less than a year, the development of the situation fulfilled the CIA's statement. It was also said that it was this report that inspired the national separatists in the former Yugoslavia and accelerated their actions to split the Yugoslav Federation.

Serbs have a bad reputation.

During the civil war in the former Yugoslavia, "ethnic cleansing" occurred frequently, and all parties were responsible. But why did the Serbs end up with the notoriety of "doing SS business"? Even the later Serbian Prime Minister Kim Miracle himself admitted that "we Serbs really have a bad reputation".

Throughout the civil war in the former Yugoslavia, the warring parties took international assistance, including the support of international public opinion, as their goal. Even spend a lot of money to ask public relations companies in the United States and Canada to create a "good international image" for themselves and vilify their opponents. Morinaud, editor-in-chief of France TV 2, once interviewed harff, president of Ludwig PR Company, the most influential public affairs organization in the world, to tell the whole story of the "manufacturing process" of public opinion. Morinaud described harff's answer in the book "The reality of Yugoslavia is hard to say":

"We succeeded in getting Jews on our side ... because Croatian President tudjman was careless in his book The Wrong Way of Historical Facts, anyone who read this book would accuse him of being anti-Semitic ... Besides, there were indeed cruel persecution of Jews in Croatia and Bosnia in the past. Therefore, our work is excellent. On August 2nd and 5th, 1992, it happened that new york's "news daily" broke the news that Serbs had established concentration camps, using the titles "death camps" and "Serbian death camps". We used this opportunity to win the support of three huge Jewish organizations. ...

"You know, the Yugoslav problem is extremely complicated, and no one knows what happened there. In fact, most Americans will ask,' Where is Bosnia in Africa?' In an instant, we made up a simple story about good people and bad people.

"Our task is not to examine whether the content of news is true ... People pay us not to promote moral theory, even if we are responsible, we are calm. If you want to prove that Serbs are victims, you might as well try. Your situation must be very isolated. "

In fact, without the support of hegemony, no matter how powerful the public relations company is, it cannot dominate the world. 1On August 28th, 1995, a mortar shell exploded in the center of Sarajevo, the capital of Bosnia and Herzegovina, killing 100 innocent civilians. The peacekeeping force did not reach a conclusion after the investigation that day, but the next day announced that the massacre was committed by Serbs. To this day, who fired the shell is still a mystery. Ballistics experts believe that it is impossible for the Serbian armed forces located in the mountains of Saskatchewan to have such a bullet trajectory. Newspapers in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia even think that this is a "bitter plan" staged by the Mu nationality at the instigation of American intelligence agencies.

Overthrow Milosevic's regime

After the Kosovo war, intelligence agencies such as the CIA and MI6 re-entered Yugoslavia. At this time, their purpose is clear, that is, to overthrow the Milosevic regime.

The United States also provided a large amount of funds to the Serbian opposition through the National Foundation for Democracy, which reached $65.438 billion in 1999 and increased to $365.438 billion in 2000. Many Americans who participated in the anti-rice movement revealed that the State Council and aid organizations played a leading role in this activity. The funds were allocated by GFAA to the National Association for the Promotion of Democracy through commercial contracts, and then non-profit organizations such as the National Democratic Institute and the International Institute for Democracy and Political Power were responsible for the specific operation.

Payne Shawn, a major American professional election company, and Doug Shawn, a polling expert from Boehland polling company, also made an in-depth analysis of the poll results of Serbian voters, in order to help the Serbian opposition coalition find a way to overthrow Milosevic, the "immortal bird" in European politics. After analysis and research, Sean made a suggestion to the Serbian opposition party, which has been in a split state: Michaelis is a "survivor" who has experienced four war failures, two large-scale demonstrations, 78 days of NATO bombing and international sanctions in the past 10 years. If he faces another well-organized campaign challenge, he will be "absolutely vulnerable". Later, the State Council and the CIA made up their minds to adopt Sean's suggestion and unite the divided Yugoslav opposition party.

Since then, western intelligence agencies have begun to invest a lot of money in Yugoslavia to support the rebels. Similarly, a large number of broadcasting equipment, computers and even small printing equipment have been flowing into Serbia. By the beginning of the election, the United States had also paid 5,000 cans of paint for Serbian student movement organizations so that they could scribble anti-rice slogans and slogans all over Serbia at will. From July 2000 to June 10, the United States sponsored 2.5 million stickers with the word "Gotovje" (meaning "he is finished" in Serbian, and this slogan later became the slogan of the whole "rice throwing campaign"), weighing 80 tons. During this period, these stickers were pasted all over Serbia, and even covered Mie's campaign advertisement with them. Similarly, the "OTPOR" (resistance) movement organization logo printed with American funds-clenched fists can also be seen everywhere.

By the end of the election in 2000, the United States, Britain and Germany had provided more than 60 million dollars for the activities of the Yugoslav opposition.