It has a speed of 600 kilometers per hour but has been losing money year after year. Should the maglev be repaired or not?

Reporter/Zhong Jian

"The speed exceeds 600 kilometers per hour, and the whole journey only takes 20 minutes." The Shanghai-Hangzhou-Ningbo Super Maglev Project has once again emerged under the new infrastructure landscape.

In mid-April, a Zhejiang large-scale transportation construction plan covering 30 years with an investment of over 10 trillion yuan was released, and the 100-billion-level Shanghai-Hangzhou-Ningbo super maglev project was on paper.

More than ten years ago, the debate over the establishment and abolition of the Shanghai-Hangzhou Maglev system caused waves several times and became a topic of continued concern in the political and business circles, academia and the public. After the Shanghai test section of the Shanghai-Hangzhou Maglev was completed, it went through several stages of project announcements, public protests, and shelving of the project. In the end, the plan for the Shanghai-Hangzhou Maglev to connect Hongqiao Airport and extend south to Hangzhou Station fell silent.

Due to the characteristics of the project, the cost of the maglev project is much higher than that of ordinary high-speed rail projects. In addition, there are disputes over environmental impact assessment and economical use. Officials have always been quite cautious in advancing the maglev demonstration. “I always feel it’s such a pity!” Professor Sun Zhang from the Institute of Railways and Urban Rail Transit at Tongji University lamented to a Phoenix Weekly reporter that the world’s only commercially operated maglev line in Pudong, China, “We have such advantages and capabilities. But it did not continue to perform well."

When the debate between the public and the government on maglev was the most intense, there was heavy public protest, and the then Shanghai leaders gave the guidance of "Xu Tuzhi, treat it coldly."

Five years ago, Japan completed the high-speed maglev manned railway experiment, reaching a speed of 603 kilometers per hour. At present, the domestic "iron public base" is being revived, and it is considered timely to mention the Shanghai-Hangzhou Maglev. Outside of Shanghai, medium and low-speed maglev lines in Beijing, Changsha and Taiyuan are all progressing steadily. Last year, CRRC Sifang Co., Ltd.'s 600 kilometers per hour high-speed maglev test prototype rolled off the assembly line in Qingdao. Officials said it has independent intellectual property rights, which is also the first example for Shanghai, Hangzhou and Ningbo. The restart of the super maglev project provides equipment and technical support.

It is reported that CRRC’s maglev test technology has been introduced to Tongji University Jiading Campus. Tongji Jiading Campus has a maglev test line, where the 600 kilometers per hour maglev technology will go out of the laboratory for offline testing.

Compared with the previous Shanghai-Hangzhou Maglev Project, this time the Shanghai-Hangzhou-Ningbo Super Maglev Project has a longer line, extending to Ningbo.

An official from the Zhejiang Provincial Development and Reform Commission said that the Shanghai-Hangzhou-Ningbo Super Maglev is a long-term transportation planning blueprint. Currently, several places in Guangdong and Beijing are competing for the maglev test section project, and it has not been decided who will win the project in the future. However, in view of the long-term loss-making operation of the Shanghai Maglev Demonstration Line, some experts have clearly raised objections, believing that maglev can shorten the journey time, but the economics are not good.

"It has been more than 16 years now. I still remember when an American TV station came to interview me when the maglev from Longyang Road to Pudong Airport was opened." Sun Zhang, a doctoral supervisor at Tongji University who turns 80 this year The professor still clearly remembers that when the American reporter came to do the program, he excitedly looked at the speed displayed on the display screen inside the maglev train: 430 kilometers per hour, "which was the highest speed of land transportation at the time."

Sun Zhang at this moment My memory remains on December 31, 2002, when the 31-kilometer maglev train from Shanghai Pudong Airport to Longyang Road, which invested 9 billion yuan that year, was opened to traffic. Later, experts revealed that this demonstration line used the magnetic levitation technology of the German company ThyssenKrupp, and "even the source code and other core technologies are in the hands of the Germans."

The Shanghai-Hangzhou Maglev is actually the product of the Beijing-Shanghai railway technology dispute. In the early 1990s, China began to develop magnetic levitation. "I remember clearly at that time, one was Professor Lian Jieshan from Southwest Jiaotong University, the other was Professor Yuan Weici from the Beijing Academy of Railway Sciences, and Professor Chang Wensheng, the director of the Automatic Control Department of the National University of Defense Technology, they were the 'troika' , leading the research on maglev technology in the country.”

When the first scientific research project of the maglev test line on the Changsha University of Defense Technology campus came off the production line, Sun Zhang went to check it with a director of the Shanghai Municipal Government Secretariat. It is proved to be the first maglev technology in China with independent intellectual property rights. Another background of domestic maglev research and development is that important transportation lines such as Beijing-Shanghai and Shanghai-Hangzhou were on the national agenda at that time, and the industry was already quarreling over whether to use maglev or high-speed wheel-rail technology.

Academician Wang Mengshu of the Ministry of Railways and others advocate the adoption of relatively mature high-speed wheel-rail technology in the world, namely Japan's Shinkansen and France's TGV technology. The other group, Yan Luguang, He Zuoxiu and others, strongly advocated magnetic levitation technology.

The Ministry of Science and Technology has also established a magnetic levitation research group for this purpose. Academicians such as He Zuoxiu have written to national leaders many times. High-speed maglev eventually received great attention from the country and was included in 12 major projects of the national "863 Plan" during the "Tenth Five-Year Plan" period. At the end of 2000, the state approved the maglev test project.

"At that time, we went through several major debates on different technologies and solutions, and finally finalized the Beijing-Shanghai wheel-rail system." Some experts said that wheel-rail technology in Japan, Germany and France have already With more than 30 years of operational practice, the domestic maglev technology has just started. Although the German maglev technology is medium to high speed, it is relatively simple because there is no signaling equipment and there was an accident at that time. The most important thing is that there is no commercial operation practice, and the cost is relatively high.

As a result of some kind of game or compromise, after Beijing and Shanghai adopted wheel rails, the Shanghai-Hangzhou planning was recommended to use maglev technology, and the National Development and Reform Commission immediately approved the project. "After participating in the review, the reporter present said that he wanted to publish this news and asked for advice on what title to use. I gave him a suggestion, that is, wheel rails and maglevs fly together, because they happen to be one south and one north, connected end to end." Sun Zhang believes that the decision made by the central government at that time was completely correct.

From the formal signing of an agreement between the Chinese and German governments on June 30, 2000 for the two parties to cooperate in carrying out a feasibility study of the Shanghai Maglev Express Train Demonstration Operation Line Project, to the introduction of the latest TR8 in Shanghai and the construction of a high-speed maglev demonstration The operation line was completed and opened to traffic in just over 2 years. At that time, it could theoretically reach a speed of 500 kilometers per hour, and the actual maximum operating speed was 403 kilometers per hour. It was the first commercially operated maglev line in the world.

The Shanghai-Hangzhou maglev planning did not go smoothly, and later turned into a public incident.

In March 2006, the Shanghai-Hangzhou Maglev Project was approved by the State Council. On April 3, the "Shanghai Environmental Hotline" website released the "Announcement Information on the Environmental Impact Report of the Maglev Transport Shanghai-Hangzhou Line Project". Subsequently, the website published the "Public Participation Announcement on the Environmental Impact of the Shanghai-Hangzhou Maglev Transportation Project" and issued an environmental impact assessment report, stating that the environmental impact of the maglev project complied with relevant standards and that the project construction was feasible.

After the project information was gradually learned by residents along the line, it caused great controversy. The public opposed the project and publicly protested because of the project's alleged radiation exposure and the short environmental impact assessment time. "These residents and developers were angered. They said there was nuclear magnetic radiation and put up slogans and big-character posters in the community and on the roadside. I ran to see them." Sun Zhang, who once served as the leader of the maglev train test team, told the public Monk Zhanger was confused by the proposed concept of nuclear magnetic radiation. "In fact, the electromagnetic radiation in the carriage and along the line is within the safe range."

The academic debate on maglev has also moved from the circle to the public level. Wang Mengshu, a former academician of the Ministry of Railways, is fiercely opposed to the launch. He believes that maglev is just an expensive "traffic toy" that does not meet the four railway standards of "safety, reliability, applicability, and economy" and is not suitable for introduction into urban transportation.

Sun Zhang, a big fan of maglev technology, was criticized. "At that time, we, Tongji University, were also involved, saying that you must have accepted bribes, so you supported this maglev technology." The person who evaluated the project was Bao Xuding, general manager of China International Engineering Consulting Company. Bao was previously the mayor of Chongqing. When he met a leader in Shanghai, he said to him, "You are out of luck. This project was approved by the National Development and Reform Commission, and senior central officials also They all agreed, but something like this happened."

The Xiamen PX incident was aroused, but the Shanghai-Hangzhou Maglev subsequently dropped the matter.

According to relevant experts, the planned total length of the Shanghai-Hangzhou Maglev Line was about 175 kilometers, and the total project budget was about 35 billion yuan. But if implemented, the project cost may be far more than that. Because the cost of the Shanghai Demonstration Line after completion of planning was 300 million yuan per kilometer, and the cost of the Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed ??Railway was 150 million yuan, almost twice that of the high-speed rail. When the Beijing-Shanghai wheel-rail cost was later accepted, the actual cost was about 168 million yuan per kilometer. The construction cost of Shanghai Maglev also exceeds 300 million yuan per kilometer, but the magnification ratio of the two is basically unchanged.

More than ten years later, the Hangzhou Maglev was upgraded to the Shanghai-Hangzhou-Ningbo Super Maglev. The estimated project budget was directly upgraded from 35 billion to 100 billion, which was nearly three times the total cost of the year.

“Zhejiang is so proactive this time because Zhejiang has proposed to complete the plan to build a strong transportation province by 2025 and create a demonstration zone for building a strong transportation country.

"An expert from Tongji University in Shanghai disclosed that Zhejiang intends to become a pilot province for the transportation power strategy proposed by the Ministry of Transport. "It happened that the maglev prototype of CRRC Sifang Co., Ltd. was displayed in Zhejiang after it was completed last year, and the two sides hit it off. , for CRRC Sifang Co., Ltd., maglev technology is also a rail transit project supported by the country's "13th Five-Year Plan" and needs to be implemented. ”

“It’s still early to go from laboratory to commercial project. "Relevant officials from the Zhejiang Provincial Development and Reform Commission said that the Shanghai-Hangzhou Maglev Project is a long-term transportation plan. It is still just an intention. In the future, the locomotives must use CRRC technology. He revealed that Beijing, Guangdong and other places have joined Zhejiang. While competing for the ownership of the maglev test section project, experts from the Zhejiang Provincial Development and Reform Commission also admitted that CRRC’s 600 km/h maglev technology was only “wheel spinning data” in the laboratory and was not the result of the actual on-the-ground test. . From scientific experiment to commercial use, it still needs to go through several necessary stages such as landing test, joint debugging and testing, manned operation and national acceptance.

However, it is still unknown whether the project will finally be implemented. Many experts disagreed, "Under the new crown epidemic, all industries are waiting for prosperity. Once the multi-billion projects are launched, the numbers will rise. The question is, is it worth it? "Professor Yan Fashan of the School of Economics at Fudan University is not optimistic, believing that maglev can shorten travel time, but the economics are not good.

The construction plan of Shanghai-Hangzhou Maglev at that time was to connect the demonstration line from Longyang Road to Pudong Airport It extends to Hongqiao Airport, connects Pudong and Hongqiao Airports, and extends southward to Jiaxing and Hangzhou stations in Zhejiang Province, strengthening the "same-city effect" of Shanghai and Hangzhou, and taking the lead in forming a travel circle of one and a half to one hour in Hangzhou, Jiaxing and Shanghai. , and connect Hangzhou and Jiaxing directly with the Shanghai World Expo Park, Shanghai Pudong Airport and Hongqiao Airport.

From the perspective of the current high-speed rail era, this plan is somewhat outdated. Huang and other coastal arterial lines intersect densely. “Short-distance high-speed rail is actually applicable, and the gap is not very obvious. Maglev with a speed of 600 kilometers per hour does not have much advantage. " Yan Fashan gave an example. When he went to Kunshan, Jiangsu Province to attend classes, it often took more than an hour to get to the high-speed rail station from home, but it only took 19 minutes to get to Kunshan by high-speed rail. "If the high-speed rail becomes a maglev, it will only take 10 minutes. In order to save these 9 minutes, it takes so long Totally not worth the huge investment. ”

According to the previous site plan, there are several stations such as Jiaxing and Jiashan between the Shanghai-Hangzhou Maglev. In theory, it takes time for each station to stop and start at high speed. Can the Shanghai-Hangzhou Maglev be truly realized? The arrival rate of 20 minutes is also questionable. Another thing worth considering about maglev technology is its weak commercial operation capacity. According to data, Shanghai Maglev has been losing money for many years, and its annual revenue is not more than 130 million yuan. That is to say, if the fare and passengers are If it remains unchanged, it will take nearly 100 years to recover the cost.

For more than ten years, the Longyang Road Shanghai Maglev has been mostly regarded as a tourist experience line and a cutting-edge high-tech urban transportation. Technology, its convenience and practicality have not been reflected. "When you rush to Pudong Airport and find that you are at the wrong airport, due to time constraints and during peak hours on the ground, it is too late to take Metro Line 2 from the beginning to the end. Take a maglev ride. , changing to Line 2 becomes the only option. "Some Shanghai citizens joked.

"The decision on the Shanghai-Hangzhou maglev transportation project is questionable. Even if we start from the lessons of Shanghai Maglev, we can no longer carry out the Shanghai-Hangzhou Maglev project. "Professor Yan Fashan wrote an appeal. Academician Wang Mengshu of the former Ministry of Railways also stated before his death that as long as the domestic maglev project is restarted, he will resolutely write a letter to oppose it.

However, Sun Zhang said that domestic maglev technology uses high-temperature normal conduction technology. Its environmental protection and safety and other technical indicators are leading the world. Maglev technology is expected to become a fast passage between central cities and sub-central cities in the Yangtze River Delta metropolitan area. In the long run, it can also connect Chengdu and Chongqing in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. City agglomeration, as well as the city agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River with Wuhan as the core.

“As for issues such as ticket prices that are sensitive to the public, I don’t think we need to think too much about them now. Why? As technology advances, costs will gradually decrease to a level that people can accept. Japan is an example. In the past, the construction cost of maglev in Japan was twice that of high-speed rail. Now it has dropped to 150% of that of high-speed rail, and a test line has begun to be built. "Sun Zhang predicts that by 2027, Japan's maglev fare will be 120% of that of high-speed rail. China will also have such an adaptation process in the future.

(Intern Yu Ying also contributed to this article)