The policy exceeded expectations! The National People's Congress will release a "gift package" with 60 billion yuan purchase tax concessions, and fuel vehicles may benefit. Market participants expect

The policy exceeded expectations! The National People's Congress will release a "gift package" with 60 billion yuan purchase tax concessions, and fuel vehicles may benefit. Market participants expect that the peak of steady growth policy is coming soon. The National People's Congress will deploy a package of measures to further stabilize the economy. Market participants expect that the peak of steady growth policy is coming soon.

On Monday, the the State Council executive meeting deployed a package of measures to further stabilize the economy, striving to push the economy back to the normal track and ensure that the economy operates within a reasonable range. The meeting decided to implement 33 measures in six aspects, including fiscal and related policies, financial policies, stabilizing industrial chain and supply chain, promoting consumption and effective investment, ensuring energy security, doing a good job in unemployment protection, subsistence allowances and helping people in need, in an effort to stabilize the basic economy.

Zhang Lianqi, member of the Standing Committee of Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, told Cailian that the current epidemic situation has spread to many market players, which has increased the difficulty of sustainable management and increased the new downward pressure on China's economy. Development is the key and foundation to solve all problems. At present, what market players need most is cash flow. Thirty-three incremental policies in six aspects are embodied in expanding tax reduction and tax rebate and financial policy tools, that is, providing cash flow to small and medium-sized enterprises and difficult industries to help market players tide over the difficulties. This is an accurate and effective measure to effectively coordinate epidemic prevention and control and economic development.

Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, told Cailian that the meeting mentioned for the first time that "many market players are very difficult", indicating that the impact of the current epidemic on the macro economy has been fully estimated, and the policy of steady growth is expected to be fully overweight. On the whole, the current epidemic peak has passed, and the policy peak of steady growth is coming.

Overall fiscal and monetary policies are still likely to increase.

In terms of finance and related policies, the meeting proposed to implement full tax rebate in more industries, increase tax rebate by more than 1.4 trillion yuan, and reduce tax by 2.64 trillion yuan for the whole year. We will extend the policy of delaying payment of social insurance premiums for small and medium-sized enterprises, individual industrial and commercial households and five poverty-stricken industries to the end of the year, and extend it to other poverty-stricken industries. It is estimated that payment will be delayed by 320 billion yuan this year. Unemployment insurance training subsidies will be extended to all enterprises with difficulties in participating in insurance. The re-guarantee cooperation business of the national financing guarantee fund increased by more than 1 trillion yuan.

In terms of financial policy, the meeting proposed that the amount and support ratio of inclusive microfinance support tools will double this year. Support banks to postpone the repayment of principal and interest during the year for troubled small and medium-sized enterprises, individual industrial and commercial households, truck loans and personal mortgage loans; The 90 billion yuan truck loan issued by auto central enterprises needs to be linked by banks and enterprises, and it will be postponed for half a year.

Wang Qing said that the meeting mainly introduced a number of targeted support measures from the perspectives of finance, finance, industry and employment policies. It is expected that the total amount of fiscal and monetary policies will also increase, such as policy interest rate cuts, adjustment of fiscal budget plans, and issuance of special government bonds. After 2020, fiscal and monetary policies have not been flooded, and there is still enough policy space.

Promote consumption and effective investment.

The National People's Congress Standing Committee (NPCSC) has also made arrangements in stabilizing the industrial chain and supply chain, promoting consumption and effective investment, ensuring energy security, and doing a good job in unemployment protection, subsistence allowances and assistance to people in need. The meeting proposed that the policy of returning to work and reaching production will be optimized. Ensure the smooth flow of freight, cancel traffic restrictions from areas with low risk of epidemic situation, and cancel all unreasonable regulations and charges. Increase domestic and international passenger flights in an orderly manner.

The meeting also proposed to reduce the purchase tax of some passenger cars by 60 billion yuan in stages. Support rigid and improved housing demand due to the city's policy. A number of new water conservancy projects have been started, especially large-scale diversion irrigation, transportation, renovation of old residential areas, underground common ditches and other projects, and banks have been guided to provide large-scale long-term loans. Implement local coal production responsibility and adjust the policy of increasing coal mine nuclear production capacity. Start another batch of energy projects. We will do a good job in unemployment insurance, subsistence allowances and assistance to people in need, and start a linkage mechanism between social assistance and security standards linked to rising prices as appropriate.

Wen Bin, chief researcher of Minsheng Bank (3.78-0.26%), believes that investment is still the key to current economic growth. The meeting proposed to start a number of new projects, such as water conservancy, transportation, renovation of old residential areas, and underground common ditches. At the same time, it is also proposed to guide banks to provide large-scale long-term loans, which will help optimize the bank credit structure, ensure the source of funds for investment projects, and stimulate investment to maintain rapid growth. In addition, the meeting pointed out that the linkage mechanism between social assistance and security standards and price increases should be started in a timely manner according to the situation, which is conducive to ensuring the basic sources of livelihood of the disadvantaged groups and is very important for reversing expectations, boosting confidence and stabilizing the economic market.

//The National People's Congress will release 60 billion yuan of purchase tax concessions. "Gift Package" Insiders: The policy exceeds expectations, and fuel vehicles may benefit//

On May 23rd, Li Keqiang, Premier of the State Council of the People's Republic of China, People's Republic of China (PRC), presided over the the State Council executive meeting to further deploy a package plan to stabilize the economy, and strive to push the economy back to the normal track and ensure that the economy operates in a reasonable range. In terms of automobiles, including promoting consumption and effective investment, the purchase tax on some passenger cars will be reduced by 60 billion yuan in stages. In addition, the 90 billion yuan truck loan issued by auto central enterprises needs to be extended by bank-enterprise linkage for half a year.

"This (reduction of some passenger car purchase tax) policy is very strong." Cui Dongshu, Secretary-General of the Federation, said that due to the epidemic situation, the current fuel vehicle market is rather bleak, and stimulating consumption is the key to recover retail losses. "The so-called' stage' may not be until the end of this year, but it depends on whether (60 billion) will be used up by then."

In addition, some senior officials of the China Automobile Association also said that "stage" refers to the prescription of policies, that is, special arrangements within a certain period of time. Bai, the international research department of China Merchants Bank, believes that the purchase tax on passenger cars last year was about 390 billion yuan. After deducting the relevant parts of commercial vehicles, the tax rate of 60 billion yuan should be reduced to 8% or even below. "The high probability will exceed market expectations."

"On the whole, it is good. Automobile is the first pillar industry to stimulate economy and consumption. Stimulated by policies, the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain will soon be effective. " An executive of a joint venture car company believes that "stage" can be understood as the economic recovery period after the epidemic, in order to ensure that the annual growth target is within a reasonable range; "Part" can be understood as a market segment of10-15,000 yuan just needed by lower-middle income families. "The huge volume and strong long tail effect can ensure that the passenger car market will achieve positive growth this year."

As an important pillar industry of the national economy, relevant policy signals have been released continuously in the near future. In April, Liu Kun, Minister of Finance, wrote that policies such as subsidies for the purchase of new energy vehicles and exemption from vehicle purchase tax should be implemented to promote the consumption of new energy vehicles; In the same month, the General Office of the State Council issued the "Opinions on Further Releasing Consumption Potential and Promoting the Sustainable Recovery of Consumption", proposing a series of policies and measures to promote consumption, including making clear arrangements for promoting mass consumption such as automobiles and household appliances; From May 65438, 2007 to May 65438, 2009, Premier Li Keqiang said that the life of drivers was not easy. A car supports their own livelihood and enriches the dining tables of thousands of families. It is necessary to guide large state-owned car companies to play their role and cooperate with banks and enterprises to further help freight drivers ease the difficulty of repaying loans; On May 20th, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology stressed that the automobile industry is an important pillar industry of the national economy, with long industrial chain, wide coverage and strong driving force. At present, it faces the "two-way pressure" of blocked supply and weak demand. It is necessary to adhere to the principle of "demand pulls first, and supply and demand sides exert their strength", reverse the downward trend as soon as possible, and provide strong support for stabilizing the economic market.

"The experience of stimulating automobile consumption is mature and fruitful." The latest research report of Huaxi Securities (7.07-0. 14%) shows that raw materials have been rising continuously this year, and most new energy vehicles and a few fuel vehicles have started to adjust their prices one after another, which has curbed some consumption, and there are more potential consumers with a wait-and-see attitude. "We judge that the subsidy policy has great kinetic energy and is more effective than the last round of stimulus in changing the wait-and-see phenomenon and stimulating potential groups."

At present, two rounds of relatively large automobile consumption stimulus policies have been implemented in China, namely, 5% to 20 10 7.5% purchase tax concessions in 2009, and the superposition of subsidy policies such as going to the countryside, trading in old cars and scrapping old cars in advance; And 20 15 to 20 16, 5% of the purchase tax, 7.5% at the end of 20 17, and the subsidy policy for early scrapping of old cars is superimposed.

The stimulus policy has effectively promoted domestic automobile sales. According to the data, in 2009 and 20 16, the automobile sales exceeded100000 and 25 million respectively, up by 45.5% and 13.7% year-on-year. It is worth noting that due to the epidemic, automobile production and consumption are currently facing dual pressures. According to the data of China Automobile Association, in April, the wholesale sales volume of passenger cars in narrow sense was 947,000, -43. 1% year-on-year and -47.9% quarter-on-quarter. The output was 978,000 vehicles,-465,438+0.4% year-on-year and -47.0% quarter-on-quarter.

"If we want to completely improve the bad situation of the automobile industry, we need more detailed and effective stimulus policies." In the view of some automobile enterprises and industry experts, automobiles are mainly vehicle products, and the upstream and downstream cover many fields, which are divided into three major links: production, circulation and after-sales. They also play an important role in stimulating the industrial chain economy and attracting employment. "As an optional durable consumer goods, policy stimulus has great influence on automobile consumption."

Statistics from the Bureau of Statistics show that in 20021year, China's total automobile retail sales reached 3.7 trillion yuan, up 3.6% year-on-year, accounting for 8.4% of China's residents' consumption expenditure, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year. In recent ten years, the proportion of automobile consumption in residents' consumption expenditure has been stable at 8.3%-11.1%,which has played an important role in stimulating consumption.

"If the purchase tax is not levied on electric vehicles next year, then the purchase tax will be reduced for fuel vehicles. If the purchase tax is reduced from 654.38+00% to 5%, the average price of passenger cars is calculated to be 6.5438+05 million yuan, and each car is exempted from the purchase tax of 6,000 yuan. A reduction of 60 billion yuan will correspond to 65.438+million vehicles; If the purchase tax is reduced to 7.5%, it will correspond to 20 million vehicles. " Analysts of CITIC Securities (19.66-0.20%, Clinical Unit) said.