Sowing slogan

After the price of live pigs rose rapidly for a period of time in the second half of April and the first half of May, most places have risen above 7.5 yuan, and many places even broke the ratio of 8 to 9, which basically turned the self-operated farmers into profits. However, the pig price market in the last half month is as embarrassing and shy as a "still hiding half her face from us behind her guitar".

Almost stuck in the position of 15.7 yuan/kg, unable to move. If it goes up too much, it will go up too much and fall too much. It's all 3 points and 4 points, and the ups and downs are measured! # Pig price #

In this case, farmers in the north have a strong anti-price sentiment, while in the south, the price of live pigs has been dragged down due to weak consumption, less local slaughter and more rainy weather.

So farmers can't understand. It is expected that the pig price will rise to 9 yuan, but now the average price is lower than that of 8 yuan, so it can't go up. What happened? Can the expected pig price in the second half of the year break through the 10 yuan mark?

It's really hard to say now, because the current negative and positive are intertwined, and there are still many uncertainties in the second half of the year.

First of all, the number of sows can increase rather than decrease.

According to the latest statistics, in May, the number of large-scale fertile sows in China increased by 65,438 +0.83%, the number of retail fertile sows increased by 2,765,438 +0%, and the number of eliminated sows decreased by 22.77%.

Huh? It turns out that according to the relevant national standards, the current productive capacity of fertile sows is still above the baseline of 4,654,380,000.

In other words, this wave of pig de-capacity has not been completed, so why can the stock of sows rebound again? In particular, the number of sows in large-scale pig farms has increased significantly, and there are a large number of spare pens in large-scale pig farms. Once their sows are in stock, they can replenish a lot of production capacity at any time, which is not a good thing for the market outlook!

Second, the environmental storm of pig industry is booming!

At present, the storm of dismantling pig farms is blowing again, and a large number of pig farms that do not meet environmental protection standards and have no formal procedures are being cleaned up in various places, which is a far cry from the situation of letting go of the green light to raise pigs two years ago, which also shows that the pig production capacity in China is still surplus, and there is really no shortage of pigs in the market!

Third, storage still won't let go.

If we only look at the above two factors, we may think that most pig prices will be closed in the second half of the year.

But not necessarily, because the pig market also has one of the strongest favorable factors-storage!

The latest news shows that the eleventh batch of central reserve frozen pork will be put into storage today, and the bidding transaction for this warehousing listing is still 40 thousand tons.

Although the central government's purchasing and storage has been "repeatedly empty" this year, the central government's "repeatedly empty" purpose is still only one, that is, to send a signal to the market: the state is helping the bottom of the pig price, which will not make the pig price fall too seriously, nor will it make farmers lose too much. Farmers should not have overcapacity!

Therefore, it is impossible to reduce the price of pigs in the next stage, because the national hand has been used for storage and storage in the market!

Generally speaking, although the central government's intention is clear, it will continue to stimulate the pig price, but the objective fact of overcapacity in the pig market this year has also been nailed to the nail, so even if the pig price will rise in the future, it is estimated that it will linger for some time until it rises to 8.5-9, and then it may be stimulated in the peak season of June1/June 12.