Interview with 200 car people to interpret the pain and dawn brought by the epidemic to the automotive industry

At the beginning of 2020, a large-scale disaster movie is happening around us.

The arrival of a black swan called the "new coronavirus" is like opening the legendary Pandora's Box, strangling the "throat" of society with a dark hand. Enterprises across the country Facing problems such as sharp decline in cash flow, traffic congestion, and delayed construction, the real economy has suffered heavy losses.

In an unexpected start, the menacing epidemic has shrouded China in layers of fog. As far as the automobile industry is concerned, although the impact of the epidemic is not as rapid and obvious as that of the tertiary industry, the "injury" is not small. A series of difficulties caused by the epidemic, such as difficulties in resuming work in factories, shortages of suppliers, postponement of the 2020 Beijing Auto Show, postponement of new car launch plans, and adjustments to annual sales targets, are testing the automobile industry, which is an important part of the national economy.

Of course, winter has arrived, which means spring is not far away. Judging from the data we collected, many companies in the automotive industry responded quickly and responded to the challenges brought by the epidemic in an orderly manner. Online resumption accounted for 39.8%, and offline resumption accounted for 48.5%. Most companies are suspending production. Two weeks later, some factories including SAIC, JAC, and BYD began to resume production.

The occurrence of the COVID-19 epidemic is easily reminiscent of SARS 17 years ago. Therefore, before talking about the overall impact of the epidemic on the auto market, let us review the auto market in 2003.

According to data released by the Passenger Car Association, my country's annual car sales in 2003 were 2.1954 million vehicles, an increase of 70% compared to 2002; the SARS epidemic occurred in the second quarter of 2003. Car sales in the quarter were 526,100 units, accounting for 24% of the total sales for the year, which means that the SARS virus did not cause a decline in sales in the auto market. However, the background at that time in 2002-2003 was that private cars began to become popular in China. The car base was small and in an incremental period, so growth was expected. 17 years have passed, and today's China's car market is not what it used to be. According to statistics, as of the end of 2019, the number of domestic cars was 260 million, and the annual sales volume has exceeded 25 million, which is more than ten times that of 2003. After experiencing the "cold winter period" throughout 2019, the emergence of the COVID-19 epidemic is bound to have an impact on the auto market.

As for the extent of the impact, Yanzhi Automobile interviewed 200 car people. Judging from the voices of all parties and the results of online surveys, for the automotive industry, the epidemic has brought not only pain, but It also allows us in the industry to see the dawn of the future.

The epidemic has shaken the automobile industry chain

Resumption of work has been delayed, and the production capacity of OEMs has been limited

Yanzhi Automobile learned that among the 25 automobile production provinces and cities in China, Except for Xinjiang, all other provinces and cities have issued notices to postpone the resumption of work in response to the epidemic. The most direct impact of the postponement of resumption of work on the OEMs is the obstruction of production capacity, and the over-sales volume in January and February will be directly affected.

In addition, Hubei Province, which is at the center of the storm, is one of the centers of automobile production in my country. Automobile companies with factories in Hubei include Dongfeng Motor Group Co., Ltd.'s DPCA, Dongfeng Motor, Dongfeng Honda, Dongfeng Nissan and SAIC-GM of the SAIC department, etc.

Recently, an insider of Dongfeng Motor Co., Ltd. said in an interview with reporters: "The current epidemic has a great impact on all companies in Hubei. The company is not yet able to make an overall assessment because the company in Hubei The epidemic situation is still severe. The Hubei Provincial Government has issued information that enterprises in Hubei will not start operations before March 10th and 24th. It is not yet possible to make a final assessment of the impact on the company's operations. "

According to statistics, in 2019. The annual automobile output in Hubei Province is 2.2475 million units, accounting for about 9% of the total domestic output. As of the end of 2018, there were 1,482 enterprises above designated size in the automobile manufacturing industry in Hubei Province, and the main business revenue of the automobile industry was 666.3 billion yuan.

According to the analysis of China Chengxin International, 80% of the entire automobile production capacity in Hubei Province is concentrated in Wuhan City. The city covers 100% of the production capacity of Dongfeng Honda, Dongfeng Passenger Cars and Dongfeng Renault, and 76% of the production capacity of Shenlong Motors. production capacity and SAIC-GM's 23% production capacity. The impact of the epidemic on the national automobile production capacity is obvious.

The epidemic has blocked the parts supply chain and affected the world

A car is composed of more than 10,000 to 20,000 independent parts that cannot be disassembled, forming a complex parts structure. A huge automobile industry chain. According to statistics, there are more than 1,300 auto parts companies in Hubei Province and more than 13,000 nationwide. Since 2014, the export volume of the auto parts manufacturing industry has remained at more than 60 billion US dollars. Chinese parts companies occupy the leading position in the global automotive industry chain. Participation in is gradually increasing.

Affected by the COVID-19 epidemic, some auto parts companies face the risk of being unable to perform contracts due to pressures such as loan cuts and logistics difficulties. On our interview list is an auto parts company in Wuhan. This company is a second-tier supplier of automobile air-conditioning motors. Its turnover in 2019 was nearly 160 million yuan, and its monthly sales at the beginning of last year were about 15 million yuan. Production was suspended for nearly a month and a half this year due to the epidemic. In this regard, the general manager of the company said in our interview that he was more worried about the loss of customers than the economic losses caused by the shutdown. He said: "Many of our customers are from other places. They resumed work in early February because they were out of stock. They have urged me several times, but we have no choice. Now there are customers looking for peers to replace us. This is the last thing I want to see and the most painful thing.”

According to the China Automobile Association’s survey of 212 companies. A survey of parts companies shows that so far, affected by the epidemic, 16% of companies have suffered losses of 20 million to 50 million yuan, and the highest losses have reached 2 billion yuan. Now, due to the delay in the resumption of work of the automobile manufacturing industry in Hubei Province, the losses will be further expanded.

The epidemic not only affects the survival of enterprises, but also has an impact on the automotive industry chain around the world in the context of globalization. The first to be affected were the factories of Japanese and Korean car companies close to China. In early February, Korean car manufacturers Hyundai and Kia, as well as Renault subsidiary RSM, announced that they would suspend production in South Korea due to disruptions in the supply of parts from China. Production. Coincidentally, in mid-February, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles issued a warning that if Chinese parts suppliers cannot resume production, one of its factories in Europe may temporarily close and suspend production within two to four weeks. At present, the impact of the epidemic on the global automobile industry is gradually being revealed. ?

Desolate physical stores, hot live broadcast rooms

In China, a huge economy, the consumer market, as one of the troika, has been hardest hit by the epidemic. For the automobile industry, the production and manufacturing links of car companies belong to the secondary industry, but car manufacturing is not the whole of the automobile industry. Automobile retail and the finance, insurance, repair, maintenance and other fields of the automobile aftermarket are all consumer industries, and these links are large Some of them need to be completed by offline stores.

According to a research report released by the China Automobile Dealers Association, before February 12, more than 30 car dealers in more than ten provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities including Beijing, Shanghai, Hebei, Jiangsu and Guangdong Among the 1,067 4S stores surveyed by the group, only 302 have resumed work or partially resumed work. More than 700 4S stores have not resumed work or are unable to resume work. The overall 4S store operation rate is 28.3%. Under such circumstances, the terminal sales in February are conceivable.

During the epidemic, in order to avoid the movement and contact of people as much as possible, many companies have launched online marketing methods such as "online car viewing" and "online car purchase". However, for consumers, it is easy to Everyone will be careful when choosing consumer products that cost tens of thousands or even hundreds of thousands. Moreover, cars are very different from other consumer goods. Driving experience is a major factor that users consider when buying a car. Test driving is an important part of the car buying process. Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the Passenger Car Association, also said that online sales should not be the focus of the transformation of 4S stores. The Internet should be developed appropriately and should not be developed as a main business.

Will the automobile industry usher in another spring?

What will be the direction of the automotive industry after the epidemic? Most people in the industry believe that after the epidemic is over, long-suppressed automobile consumption will be released, which will have a positive impact on automobile sales.

The central government encourages automobile consumption

On February 16, national leaders proposed in the "Qiushi" magazine that among measures to stabilize residents' consumption, it is necessary to actively stabilize traditional commodities such as automobiles. Consumption, encourage areas with car purchase restrictions to appropriately increase car license plate quotas to drive consumption of cars and related products.

This is absolutely good news for promoting automobile consumption. As one of my country's pillar industries, the automobile industry is very important to reduce the impact of the epidemic on the automobile industry and stimulate automobile consumption to improve the current difficulties faced by the automobile industry.

A number of policies have been launched one after another to reduce pressure and rescue the market

In response to the problem of weakening consumption power, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued a notice on January 26 to temporarily lose sources of income due to the impact of the epidemic. For this group of people, we should give appropriate tilts in credit policies, flexibly adjust personal credit repayment arrangements such as housing mortgages and credit cards, and reasonably postpone the repayment period.

In addition, on February 20, the Ministry of Commerce held a press conference, clarifying that it will thoroughly implement the important decisions and arrangements of the central government on "actively stabilizing traditional bulk consumption such as automobiles" and the "General Office of the State Council's Notice on Accelerating the In the spirit of the Opinions on Developing Circulation and Promoting Commercial Consumption, we will work with relevant departments to study and introduce policies and measures to further stabilize automobile consumption and reduce the impact of the epidemic on automobile consumption.

Foshan City became the first city to launch an incentive policy for automobile consumption in 2020, spending "real money" to promote consumption. In order to stimulate local automobile consumption and alleviate the impact of the epidemic on Foshan vehicle companies and parts companies, Foshan Water provides a financial subsidy plan of 2,000-5,000 yuan for each newly purchased vehicle, which is valid for one year. Subsequently, the Guangdong Provincial Government issued "Several Policies and Measures to Further Stabilize and Promote Employment", proposing to promote qualified prefectures and cities to introduce subsidy policies for the scrapping and renewal of old cars, and encourage Guangzhou and Shenzhen to further relax car lottery and bidding indicators.

In view of the impact of the epidemic on automobile companies, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers submitted a proposal to relevant departments to postpone the nationwide implementation of China VI emission standards. "This move can stabilize production and sales, prevent dealers from dumping National V inventory when their lives are very tight, and reduce dealers' bankruptcy due to inventory risks." Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the Cui Dongcheng Association, said.

“You must buy a car after the epidemic”

After experiencing the inconvenience of road closures due to the epidemic, coupled with the unsafe conditions of public transportation, it inspired some homeless people to With the demand for car purchases from car families increasing, consumers will be more inclined to travel in private cars. With the approval of the State Council, from February 17, 2020 until the end of the epidemic prevention and control work, vehicle tolls will be waived on toll roads across the country, reducing the travel costs of private cars and further stimulating the public’s desire to consume.

Industry analysts pointed out that after the epidemic, the demand for car purchases will gradually recover, and may even explode in the second quarter of this year, which will benefit the entire industry chain. Zeng Qinghong, chairman of GAC Group, also said: "The automobile industry is different from service industries such as catering. The epidemic has caused a delay in demand, which will have a certain impact in the short term, but the overall situation is good."

Written at the end:

For the automobile industry, this new coronavirus epidemic is both a challenge and an opportunity. The negative impact on the production and consumer sides has become a fact. Industry reshuffle is inevitable, but after the epidemic The accumulation of demand and the introduction of favorable policies have given "car people" in the cold winter period a glimmer of hope.

This article comes from the author of Autohome Chejiahao and does not represent the views and positions of Autohome.