What is the current trend in COVID-19?

—— Original title: How should COVID-19, which is changeable, be based on the secular world?

Major listed companies in the industry: Conway Century (688426); Dean Diagnostics (300244); Hot spot landscape creatures (688068); Mingde Biology (002932); Huada Gene (300676); Pyrenees Mountain Range Test (300887), etc.

The core data of this paper: COVID-19's prevention and control of change; Transformation mode; Market size of in vitro diagnosis;

"COVID-19" is a thing of the past.

65438 On February 26th, 2022, the comprehensive group of joint prevention and control mechanism of epidemic situation in COVID-19 issued the Overall Plan for Implementing Class B Management of Epidemic Situation in COVID-19, and since 2023, the prevention and control measures of Class A infectious diseases stipulated in the Law on Prevention and Control of Infectious Diseases in novel coronavirus, People's Republic of China (PRC) have been lifted. Novel coronavirus infection is no longer included in the management of quarantine infectious diseases stipulated in the Frontier Health and Quarantine Law of People's Republic of China (PRC). After the implementation of Class B management, China's response to COVID-19 infection mainly lies in strengthening service and safety. The specific direction is: infected people are willing to have a physical examination and will no longer implement isolation measures and social prevention and control.

At the same time, the comprehensive group of joint prevention and control mechanism of the State Council organized the revision and release of novel coronavirus infection prevention and control plan (10th edition). The tenth edition of the diagnosis and treatment plan optimizes the detection strategy: it is limited to relevant medical staff, inpatients, pension institutions, social welfare institutions and other staff, nurses, and community severe high-risk personnel. For nucleic acid detection, you can also choose the form of antigen detection. From the convenience point of view, COVID-19's antigen testing is more convenient for residents to obtain, so the demand for nucleic acid testing in COVID-19 may theoretically drop to zero, which indicates that COVID-19's nucleic acid testing has gradually withdrawn from the stage of China.

Where to go for nucleic acid and antigen detection in COVID-19?

COVID-19 residents' demand for nucleic acid testing is rapidly declining, and COVID-19's nucleic acid testing has become an "abandoned child of the times" with poor development prospects. Enterprises that participate in the production of nucleic acid detection kits in COVID-19 and follow-up inspection in COVID-19 are generally enterprises with IVD (in vitro diagnosis) industry qualifications. Most of these enterprises had other IVD businesses except COVID-19 nucleic acid testing before they started nucleic acid testing business in COVID-19. There is still room for such enterprises to develop. However, some enterprises were established only three years after the epidemic, especially those that only provide nucleic acid testing services in COVID-19. Relatively speaking, the development prospects of such enterprises are slightly embarrassing.

Moreover, from the current market survey, most people do not have more independent will and demand for antigen and nucleic acid detection. With reference to the global opening process, the demand for antigens in the subsequent mass market is also decreasing, and the COVID-19 antigen test kit in China may not have a near-term market in the future.

So, has the development of nucleic acid and antigen detection enterprises in COVID-19 turned around? After the implementation of "B and B tube" for COVID-19 infection in China, COVID-19 nucleic acid/antigen detection products and services originally provided by these enterprises lost their original high value, and the demand in the mass market was greatly reduced. For its sustainable development, enterprises should consider expanding their business or making strategic adjustments in other original businesses.

In terms of market division, some COVID-19 nucleic acid detection enterprises (referring to kit manufacturers and nucleic acid detection service providers) and some enterprises that have developed COVID-19 antigen self-test products have business dealings with other IVD sub-sectors. Enterprises can decide whether to continue to deepen their business in other sub-sectors or turn to other new fields in the future through strategic adjustment, such as the detection of monkeypox virus antigen or its nucleic acid. In the market, enterprises can consider applying for international (German BfArM, EU Health and Safety Committee, etc. ) certification after investigating overseas markets and finding that the market layout is feasible, so as to export the original inventory overseas.

It is still difficult for small and medium-sized enterprises to carry out export business for IVD industry. According to the evaluation of internationally renowned vertical research institutions in the medical industry

According to MedTech's data, the global market size of IVD industry is also growing continuously, from 20 15 to 202 10. Except for the COVID-19 epidemic in 2020-202 1 year, the growth rate of market scale in other time periods fluctuated around 5%. According to the assessment

According to MedTech's research results on the global IVD industry, by 2028, the market size of the global IVD industry will exceed 1 1000 billion US dollars, which indicates that there is still room for growth in the global IVD industry. If large enterprises participate in IVD business other than COVID-19's nucleic acid/antigen testing business, they can consider increasing their investment in R&D to increase their share of the global IVD market.

Where can the nucleic acid kiosk be "rehired" after "retirement"?

In the past three years, the COVID-19 epidemic (COVID-19 infection) swept the world, which brought not only COVID-19 nucleic acid/antigen testing, but also its supporting equipment-nucleic acid testing kiosks to the nouveau riche industry. However, with the "end" of the nucleic acid detection industry in COVID-19, the nucleic acid detection kiosks in its supporting facilities have also entered a state of retirement, and the original nucleic acid detection kiosks have been neglected. Many people report that nucleic acid kiosks occupy public space, but are not used by the community. From the perspective of maximizing industrial resources, nucleic acid kiosks may be able to contribute to community medical care and convenience services after retirement, and its transformation focus is on convenience medical examination services and convenience medical services.

Can "electronic sentry" have a way out?

Electronic sentry has also become a member of the "abandoned children of the times". During the period of strict epidemic prevention and control in COVID-19, electronic sentinel played an important role in first-and second-tier cities, helping residents to screen foreigners and people with nucleic acid problems. However, with the change of the national prevention and control mechanism in COVID-19, residential areas no longer need to be tested for negative nucleic acid to enter, which makes many electronic sentries in residential areas "useless".

In fact, the electronic sentry box is a kind of equipment that can upgrade and iterate the functions of the electronic sentry box through artificial intelligence technology, covering the original verification function of negative proof of nucleic acid, and adding effective functions such as face recognition and security proofreading to ensure the personal safety of residents in the community, such as access control, personnel management and intelligent monitoring. However, during the transformation of electronic kiosks, some second-hand electronic kiosks were bought and sold, but there are also some risks in storing personal privacy information. In addition to updating its functions, electronic sentry also needs to protect the personal information security of residents under the regulation and supervision of the government.

"Abandoning the children of the times" depends on understanding the market and making a reasonable path.

"The outcast of the times" is a blessing in misfortune in the changes of the times. We must adjust our business model and strategic direction as soon as possible to adapt to the rapid changes in the market. We should not only consider the feasibility of laying out a certain market, but also consider the transformation path. A reasonable transformation path will ensure that the cost and consumption borne by enterprises on the road of transformation are minimized and their own resources are rationally utilized.

For more research and analysis on this industry, please refer to Foresight Industry Research Institute's Report on Market Prospect Prediction and Investment Strategy Planning of Nucleic Acid Detection Industry in China and Report on Market Prospect and Investment Strategy Planning of IVD Industry in China.