The GDP growth target of many provinces in 2022 is below 7

The GDP growth target of many provinces in 2022 is below 7.

The GDP growth target of many provinces in 2022 is below 7. Statistics found that some provinces are relatively optimistic about economic growth in 2022. A higher goal of 7-9 was proposed. The GDP growth target of many provinces in 2022 is below 7. The GDP growth target of many provinces in 2022 is below 71

At the beginning of each year, various places will usher in the annual provincial and local two sessions. The provincial two sessions are also regarded by the industry as a way to observe local economic and social development. important window.

On January 3, with the opening of the fifth session of the 11th CPPCC of the Tibet Autonomous Region, the country officially entered the time of the local two sessions in 2022. Now in mid-to-late January, it is an intensive period for local two sessions. As of January 20, 22 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities across the country have held local two sessions.

A reporter from "China Business News" noticed that the currently announced local GDP growth rates in 2021 are relatively eye-catching, but most places have slightly lowered their 2022 GDP growth targets. According to statistics from China International Finance Securities, among the 22 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities that have been announced, 18 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities including Shanghai have lowered their GDP growth targets, with the average decrease of 0.7 percentage points among the 22 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities.

Industry experts interviewed said that the GDP growth rates of some localities that have been announced are eye-catching, which is consistent with the increase in national GDP growth rate. This is related to the local focus on the development of high-end manufacturing and digital economy. Many places have proposed to develop the digital economy in 2022. This shows the leading role of the digital economy in our country's economy and is a decision-making arrangement that conforms to the development trend of our country. The digital economy is conducive to optimizing the economic structure, promoting the transformation of traditional industries, and achieving high-quality economic development.

The local economic report cards in 2021 are eye-catching

The reporter noticed that the local economic report cards in Tibet, Anhui and other places in 2021 are relatively eye-catching. For example, on January 4, 2022, the fifth session of the Eleventh People's Congress of the Tibet Autonomous Region opened in Lhasa. According to the meeting, Tibet’s GDP exceeded the 200 billion yuan mark for the first time in 2021, an increase of about 7% from the previous year.

On January 17, 2022, the Anhui Provincial Government Work Report mentioned that the province’s GDP is expected to grow by 8% in 2021, with the total volume exceeding 4 trillion yuan, and the per capita GDP exceeding 10,000 US dollars. It also proposed that the GDP target growth in 2022 will be more than 7.

Then on January 20, 2022, the fifth session of the 13th Jiangsu Provincial People’s Congress opened. According to the Jiangsu Provincial Government Work Report, Jiangsu's province's GDP will exceed 11 trillion yuan in 2021, reaching 11.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.6%, and the total will reach a trillion yuan level.

In this regard, Pan Helin, a member of the Information and Communication Economy Expert Committee of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and Executive Director of the Digital Economy Research Institute of Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, analyzed in an interview with a reporter from China Business News on January 21: "2021 In 2018, our country's economy benefited from the timely and appropriate handling of the epidemic, which balanced the relationship between epidemic prevention and development. Various regions seized the window period to alleviate the epidemic and focused on production and supply. At the same time, due to our timely handling of the epidemic, our country's industries supported the global supply chain, thus maintaining the economic stability Growth. ”

Pan Helin also pointed out to reporters: “Our country’s local governments attach great importance to the development of high-end manufacturing and the digital economy, such as new energy vehicles, biopharmaceuticals, APIs, new energy power and other industries. All have gained strong growth momentum, so the local economic report card in 2021 is generally bright."

Ying Xiwen, a macro analyst at China Minsheng Bank Research Institute, also told a reporter from China Business News on January 21. Said: "Due to the low base of the epidemic in the previous year, the national GDP growth reached 8.1 in 2021, a new high in recent years. The local GDP growth rate that has been announced so far is eye-catching, and it is also consistent with the increase in the national GDP growth rate. It is the national the epitome of.

In addition, there are price factors. In 2021, my country's overall inflation will increase compared with previous years. The nominal GDP growth rate will reach 12.8, which is much faster than the actual growth rate of 8.1. Therefore, the total GDP will also rise again, reaching 114 trillion yuan. This is also the reason why the GDP of various localities has also risen in terms of total volume, resulting in relatively outstanding results. ”

Many places have slightly lowered their 2022 GDP growth targets

Although the local economic report card in 2021 is eye-catching, reporters have noticed that some Local governments have slightly lowered their 2022 economic growth targets. For example, Beijing and Guizhou have lowered their GDP growth targets by 1 percentage point: Beijing's 2022 economic growth target has been lowered from "above 6" in 2021 to "above 5". The economic growth target for 2022 has also been lowered from "around 8" to "around 7".

Pan Helin told reporters: "This is mainly due to the slowdown in global economic recovery caused by the spread of global Omicron and sporadic domestic outbreaks. The regional epidemic has also delayed economic opening up. Due to uncertainty, various regions have rationally chosen to lower their economic growth targets for 2022 and pay more attention to the optimization of the economic structure instead of blindly pursuing expansion. ”

Ying Xiwen believes: “A very important factor in local governments lowering their growth targets for 2022 is that my country’s economic growth has recovered well from the epidemic in 2021, thus forming a relatively high year-on-year base. In contrast, the relatively high growth rate in 2021 is also caused by the relatively low base of the epidemic in 2020. Therefore, the reduction of growth targets in various regions in 2022 is largely due to the technical reason of rising base. ”

The digital economy has attracted attention

Judging from the information announced at the local two sessions that have been held, the digital economy has attracted attention. For example, the Jiangsu Provincial Government Work Report pointed out that in 2022, Jiangsu will accelerate Develop the digital economy and continuously improve the level of industrial modernization and the core competitiveness of the manufacturing industry.

The Guizhou Provincial Government Work Report also shows that in 2021, Guizhou’s digital economy will accelerate its breakthrough, with the digital economy accounting for 34%. It is proposed that in 2022, the main goal of Guizhou's high-quality development is: the added value of manufacturing accounts for about 21% of the regional GDP; the proportion of the digital economy and green economy in the regional GDP reaches about 36% and 46% respectively.

In this regard, Pan Helin told reporters: "The digital economy has become an important driving factor in our country's economy. The acceleration of the development of the digital economy in various places is a reflection of the leading role of the digital economy in our economy and a decision-making deployment that conforms to our country's development trend. , the digital economy is conducive to optimizing the economic structure, promoting the transformation of traditional industries, and achieving high-quality economic development. ”

The State Council recently issued the “14th Five-Year Plan for Digital Economy Development.” According to the industry, this is the first national-level special plan in the field of digital economy in my country. The top-level design continues to be improved. The plan also proposes that by 2025, the digital economy will enter a period of comprehensive expansion, and the added value of the core industries of the digital economy will account for 10% of GDP.

Ying Xiwen also told reporters: "Everywhere. It is proposed to develop the digital economy, which is in line with the general direction of the progress of the times. Especially in the post-epidemic era, on the one hand, epidemic prevention and control has created more demand for the Internet that was not available in the past. On the other hand, many new concepts and business models have gradually become feasible with technological advancement, such as the recently popular concept of the metaverse. . Therefore, various localities have proposed to accelerate the development of the digital economy in order to gain first-mover advantages as soon as possible under the new situation and seize a favorable track. "The GDP growth target of many provinces in 2022 is below 7 2

The local two sessions in 2022 are intensively underway.

As of January 21, 28 provinces (autonomous regions, autonomous regions, Municipalities) convene local two sessions and release government work reports or annual economic data.

According to statistics from 21st Century Business Herald reporters, under the general tone of "stability takes priority and progress while maintaining stability", most provinces have set their GDP growth targets below 7, and seek to actively expand effective investment and carry out infrastructure investment appropriately ahead of schedule. ; Carry out diversified activities to promote the recovery of consumption, especially contact consumption, and cultivate new consumption growth points to promote stable and healthy economic development in 2022.

At the same time, some provinces are relatively optimistic and have set a higher target of 7-9 for economic growth in 2022. Taking Anhui as an example, Xia Xingping, director and researcher of the Investment and Finance Institute of the Anhui Provincial Academy of Economic Research, pointed out to the 21st Century Business Herald reporter that the GDP growth target setting of 2022-7 not only implements the spirit of the central government, but also conforms to the economic operation of Anhui Province The situation reflects the importance of stability and progress while maintaining stability. At the same time, considering efforts to narrow the gap with Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang, Anhui must maintain a higher growth rate in the future. From the perspective of supporting factors for economic growth, Anhui has a good foundation for rapid investment growth; stabilizing and expanding consumer demand is guaranteed; exports will still be in the fast lane in 2022, and "stable growth has a foundation and guarantee."

Growth rate: At least 10 places have GDP growth targets set at 7 and above

Statistics from 21st Century Business Herald reporters found that as of January 21, At least 10 provinces across the country have proposed a GDP growth rate of 7 or above in 2022. Specifically, the growth rate of Henan Province, Hubei Province, Yunnan Province, Guizhou Province, and Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region is expected to be around 7, and the growth rate of Anhui Province, Jiangxi Province, Tibet Autonomous Region, Jilin Province, and Hainan Province is expected to be above 7. Most of these provinces have maintained a rapid economic development rate in the past year, and 8 of the above 10 provinces will have a GDP growth rate of no less than 7 in 2021.

How to achieve the economic development goal of “seeking progress while maintaining stability”? A reporter from the 21st Century Business Herald noted that on the supply side, many places have proposed to ensure the vitality of market entities and promote high-quality industrial development; on the demand side, many places have focused on promoting effective investment and the expansion and upgrading of social consumption.

Market entities are the carrier of economic power and the focus of consolidating the foundation for economic development. A reporter from the 21st Century Business Herald noted that in 2022, many countries will adopt stronger tax and fee reduction policies in order to achieve continued activity of market entities and ensure that the supply side is full of vitality. Among them, Henan proposed to deepen the "ten thousand people to help ten thousand enterprises" and implement new tax reduction and fee reduction and value-added tax credit refund policies to help the sustainable development of market entities; Jiangxi proposed to strive to reduce the burden on market entities by 200 billion yuan throughout the year. The goal is to increase the net increase of market entities by more than 600,000; Shaanxi proposes to use new combined tax cuts and fee reductions to relieve the burden on market entities; Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region will cultivate 8 new manufacturing "single champions" by setting up The goal of 10 "specialized, specialized, special and innovative" small giant enterprises and about 100 enterprises that have been upgraded to regulations and entered into the database will promote the self-motivation and continued activity of market entities.

Regarding the demand side, promoting the sustained recovery of consumption after the epidemic and cultivating various types of new consumption have become the key tasks of these provinces that plan to achieve higher economic growth in 2022.

For example, Henan Province has proposed stabilizing the consumption of bulk commodities such as automobiles, home appliances, and furniture, focusing on creating new landmarks in the consumer market, and supporting Zhengzhou and Luoyang in building international consumption center cities; Jilin Province has adopted measures to develop new tourism , cultivate new e-commerce, expand new consumption to promote the improvement and expansion of its own consumption, etc.

Anhui has developed rapidly in recent years. A reporter from the 21st Century Business Herald noted that in the arrangements for promoting consumption and stabilizing growth in 2022, Anhui will clearly focus more on improving urban consumption levels, including promoting the construction of multi-level consumption centers We will create an international consumption center in Hefei, implement the action plan of “Forging Strengths and Compensating for Weaknesses” in the three industries, the “Come to Anhui Province” series of consumption actions, multi-dimensionally optimizing the consumption environment, and “double-pronged” improvement of consumption infrastructure.

In this regard, Xia Xingping believes that in the next step, Anhui must do everything possible to promote the high-quality coordinated development of the three industrial systems and launch an action plan for the high-quality coordinated development of the three industries.

In addition, Anhui should accelerate the construction of a strong agricultural and manufacturing province, improve the quality of consumption, and expand consumption level.

Investment: Carry out infrastructure investment appropriately ahead of schedule

Currently, my country’s economic development is facing triple pressures of shrinking demand, supply shocks, and weakening expectations. The 2021 Central Economic Work Conference requires that in 2022, economic work must be stable and make progress while maintaining stability. All regions and departments must assume the responsibility of stabilizing the macro economy, and all parties must actively introduce policies that are conducive to economic stability, and policy efforts must be made. Properly forward.

Due to the superimposed impact of the new coronavirus pneumonia epidemic that spread in many places from the end of last year to the beginning of this year, the steady growth of the economy in the first quarter and the whole year of 2022 has attracted much attention. In 2021, the national GDP growth rate will reach 8.1. Although the national GDP growth rate target for 2022 has not yet been released, judging from the 2022 government work reports of various provinces, most of them set the GDP growth rate in 2022 at between 5.5-6.5.

How to achieve this year’s economic development goals? 21st Century Business Herald reporter further combed and found that many places have made it clear that this year they will actively seize the "window period" when the country increases the scale of government investment and appropriately advances infrastructure investment, and expand effective investment by focusing on the construction of key projects, thereby promoting the economy. Achieve "making progress while maintaining stability". Specifically, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Hubei, Shanghai, Beijing, Anhui, Chongqing and other places have clearly stated that in 2022, they must actively expand effective investment and carry out infrastructure investment appropriately in advance.

How to understand the importance of appropriately advancing infrastructure investment? How will localities promote it?

“Today’s infrastructure investment is a strong support for tomorrow’s urban economic and social development.” Wang Huajie, deputy director of the Shanghai Municipal Development and Reform Commission, said at a press conference held on January 18 that the basic infrastructure should be carried out appropriately ahead of schedule. Facility investment is an important part of expanding effective investment, and it is also an inherent requirement to strengthen existing economic advantages and strengthen future development momentum.

Taking Shanghai as an example, Wang Huajie introduced that Shanghai will mainly grasp three points in expanding effective investment and stabilizing economic development in 2022: First, adhere to planning guidance and give full play to the early release of Shanghai's "14th Five-Year Plan" special plans. With the advantage of sufficient project reserves, we will continue to promote the upgrading of traditional infrastructure such as transportation, energy, and ecological environment, improve the level of digitalization, intelligence, green and low-carbon, and simultaneously accelerate the deployment of new services, cultivate new momentum, and support new tracks. infrastructure; the second is to adhere to the combination of long and near, make precise efforts, and actively promote the construction of projects in key areas and weak links, which not only expands the current effective investment, makes up for shortcomings, strengths and weaknesses, but also enhances development potential; the third is to adhere to the "time, time, and Unifying "efficiency", Shanghai will focus on major projects related to the city's economic and social development that must be carried out sooner or later. After scientific verification, they will be implemented in the early stage of the "14th Five-Year Plan".

Not only that, many places attach great importance to leading through major projects and frontier fields in expanding investment. For example, Beijing has proposed to continue to maintain an investment intensity of 100 billion, Anhui has launched an effective investment battle, and Shaanxi has stated that it will increase investment in key areas such as 5G networks, new generation Internet, and the Internet of Things.

As a major economic province with a GDP exceeding 12 trillion, Guangdong Province will complete investments of more than 1 trillion yuan in key projects in 2021, and the province’s fixed asset investment will grow by 6.3%. In 2022, Guangdong will clearly focus on promoting investment and stabilization. Growth: 1,570 provincial key projects have been arranged this year, with a total investment of approximately 7.67 trillion yuan, and the annual planned investment is 900 billion yuan, an increase of 12.5% ??over last year’s plan. Among them, new infrastructure has become a focus. For example, this year, Guangdong will accelerate the construction of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area International Science and Technology Innovation Center and the Comprehensive National Science Center, accelerate the construction of the three major science cities of Guangming, Songshan Lake, and Nansha; optimize and upgrade the laboratory system , promote the construction of Pengcheng Laboratory and Guangzhou Laboratory, and strive for the deployment of a number of national key laboratories in emerging fields and interdisciplinary subjects in Guangdong.

Liu Jinshan, director and professor of the Investment Consulting (Research) Center of Jinan University, analyzed that the arrangement of key projects in Guangdong in 2022 reflects several characteristics: First, the volume is large. The volume of 900 billion is relatively high in the country, and it has great impact on the upstream. The pull of the industrial chain will be very large; the second is to be proactive, which not only stabilizes the current economic growth, but also provides advanced capital for future economic development; the third is to optimize, and the investment allocation matches the optimization of Guangdong's current economic structure; the fourth is to innovate, this year The allocation of key projects in Guangdong shows that the investment in scientific and technological innovation is very large.

Consumption: recovery and cultivation are two key words

Stable growth requires not only expanding investment but also promoting consumption.

Han Wenxiu, deputy director of the Office of the Central Financial and Economic Commission, said at the previous 2021-2022 China Economic Annual Conference: "Our advantage is the large domestic demand potential. We must implement the strategy of expanding domestic demand and promote the continued recovery of consumption. Actively expand effective investment and focus on the combination of stabilizing growth, adjusting structure, and benefiting people's livelihood."

Under the influence of the new coronavirus epidemic, promoting the recovery of consumption has become the "stable progress" of the economy in 2022. 's top priority. Judging from the government work report, many places have clearly stated that in 2022, they will further promote the recovery of consumption by carrying out a series of consumption-promoting activities, such as creating consumption clusters and issuing consumer coupons.

"Since the outbreak of the epidemic, various localities and departments have introduced a series of policies and measures to promote consumption, and the effects have continued to show, and the consumer market has gradually recovered." On January 18, Director of the Policy Research Office of the National Development and Reform Commission, News Spokesperson Jin Xiandong said at a press conference that my country’s final consumption expenditure will contribute 65.4% to economic growth in 2021. Next, as the epidemic is effectively controlled, the effects of pro-consumption policies are further revealed, and new policies are further introduced, consumption will continue to maintain restorative growth.

On January 14, the National Development and Reform Commission also issued the "Notice on Effectively Promoting Consumption in the Recent Work", requiring that on the premise of accurate and effective epidemic prevention and control, Seize the opportunity of the peak consumption season of traditional festivals such as the Spring Festival and Lantern Festival, adapt to changes in residents' consumption habits and needs for quality improvement and upgrading, tap consumption hotspots and growth points, further release residents' consumption potential, promote a stable start to the economy in the first quarter, and propose measures to meet local conditions to meet the festival Ten measures include consumer demand, expanding rural consumption in counties, and expanding ice and snow consumption.

From a local perspective, accelerating the continued recovery of consumption and cultivating new types of consumption have also become clear tasks for many places to promote consumption in 2022. A reporter from the 21st Century Business Herald noted that this year, on the basis of focusing on online consumption, various regions have further emphasized the need to promote the recovery and development of offline consumption. For example, Sichuan proposed that a province-wide consumption promotion conference will be held in 2022 to create a number of cultural, sports, tourism and business complexes, characteristic neighborhoods, night culture and tourism consumption clusters; Shaanxi proposed that a three-year action plan to promote consumption growth will be implemented in 2022. Carry out diversified consumption promotion activities focusing on bulk commodities such as automobiles, home appliances, and home furnishings, as well as key areas such as catering and entertainment, to promote the recovery of consumption, especially contact consumption.

In addition to improving traditional consumption, many places also emphasize the need to explore regional characteristics, promote the integration of consumer industries, and cultivate new consumption such as lifestyle service industries. Taking Chongqing as an example, in 2022, Chongqing will explore its characteristic culture, special food and special tourism resources, promote the linkage and integration of consumer industries, improve the development of e-commerce, and promote the integration of online and offline, and the cross-border development of business, tourism, culture and sports.

In 2021, Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Tianjin, Chongqing and other cities will be approved to take the lead in cultivating and building international consumption center cities. Among them, Beijing, Guangdong, Chongqing and other provinces and cities that have held the two sessions have also made the cultivation of international consumption center cities a top priority in boosting consumption this year in their government work reports.

For example, Beijing proposed to actively adapt to the changes in consumption formats spurred by epidemic prevention and control, carry out in-depth special actions for international consumption center cities, encourage green consumption, enrich digital consumption, develop sports consumption, innovate life and cultural tourism consumption, and vigorously incubate new consumer brands , to expand the supply of high-quality consumption; Chongqing mentioned that it is necessary to seize the opportunity of cultivating and building an international consumption center city, implement "ten major projects" such as improving the quality of international consumption carriers, deepen the eight major actions of "Bayu New Consumption", and consolidate the momentum of consumption recovery; Guangdong The province proposed to promote the construction of Guangzhou and Shenzhen into international consumption center cities and expand consumption of automobiles, home appliances, information, etc.

Kim Hyundong also stated at the above-mentioned regular press conference that it is necessary to combine the expansion of consumption with the improvement of people's quality of life, promote the creation of a high-quality consumer supply system with rich content, excellent quality, and reasonable structure, and guide enterprises Increase the supply of cost-effective goods and services to fully meet residents' personalized, diversified and improved consumption needs. Relevant policies and measures should be formulated and introduced in a timely manner to increase residents' income and reduce burdens at the same time, and support the continued expansion of consumption with the general increase in the income of urban and rural residents. The GDP growth target of many provinces in 2022 is below 7

As of January 23, 2022, 29 provinces across the country have announced their 2022 economic growth targets. What signals did this year’s local two sessions send?

Nearly 80% of provinces will meet GDP growth standards in 2021

According to interface data statistics, judging from the completion of GDP in 2021, among 29 provinces, Nearly 80% of provinces have achieved their 2021 economic growth targets. Hubei exceeded the expected target the most, with GDP completion in 2021 being 2.9 percentage points higher than the target. Followed by Jiangsu and Beijing, which were 2.6 and 2.5 percentage points higher respectively. About 20% of provinces failed to meet the standards. Tibet's GDP completion rate in 2021 has the largest gap from the target value, which is 2 percentage points lower. Followed by Yunnan and Henan, which were 0.7 and 0.5 percentage points lower respectively.

The average GDP target of 29 provinces in 2022 is 6.4, and the median is 6.5

Judging from the distribution of GDP growth target values ??in 2022, 29 Among the provinces, the average GDP growth target is 6.4, and the median is 6.5. Nearly 70% of provinces have expected GDP growth targets of 6 or above this year.

More than 80% of provinces have lowered their GDP growth target

Comparing the GDP growth targets for 2021 and 2022, more than 80% of the 29 provinces have lowered their GDP growth targets. Chengdu provinces have lowered their GDP growth targets for 2022, with an average decrease of 0.8 percentage points. Hubei has the largest reduction, by 3 percentage points. Followed by Shanxi, which was lowered by 1.5 percentage points. The GDP growth targets of nearly 20% of provinces are the same as last year. No province has raised its GDP growth target.

Comparing the GDP completion in 2021 with the GDP growth target in 2022, among the 29 provinces, more than 80% of the provinces have a GDP growth target in 2022 lower than the GDP growth target in 2021. Spend. The GDP growth targets for Henan, Ningxia and Tibet in 2022 are higher than the completion rates in 2021. Hebei's GDP growth target in 2022 is the same as the completion rate in 2021.

What changes have occurred in the formulation of the GDP growth target?

According to statistics from the interface, about 30% of the 29 provinces use "above" in their expression of the GDP growth target for 2022, and more than 50% of the provinces use "about". In comparison, among the 29 provinces in 2021, nearly 60% of the provinces used "above" to express their GDP growth targets for 2021, and nearly 30% of the provinces used "about".

Against the background that the central government requires investment to be appropriately advanced, governments at all levels will also be more active this year to ensure that investment gets off to a good start in the first quarter and forms a strong focus on projects and Stable growth effect.