What are the skills of 3D positioning? Ask experts for advice.

Many investors who have experienced the ups and downs of the stock market may feel that it is too difficult to grasp the stock market. Either the stock selection is wrong or the buying time is wrong. Often it's hard to make some money and then get stuck. Therefore, some investors believe that the safest strategy is to purchase new shares and carry out risk-free arbitrage. Throughout the development history of China stock market, the probability of making money without risk by buying new shares is greater than that by buying and selling stocks in the secondary market. But objectively speaking, the capital efficiency of new share subscription is not very high. Since the reform of the new share issuance system, it is more favorable than small and medium-sized retail investors to some extent. This is because the new regulations restrict the subscription of each shareholder's account, which partially inhibits some attempts to seek large funds for risk-free arbitrage. But for investors with a small amount of funds, the probability of winning a new share subscription is just like buying a lottery ticket, which is difficult to meet. It's better than buying lottery tickets. If you don't win new shares, there will be no cost (regardless of interest rate).

Recently, some media said that "this month (July 18 to August 18) hit a new rate of return as high as 63%". If we only take it literally, it is easy to give people the illusion that the subscription of new shares will really have such high returns. This illusion is that the so-called annualized rate of return of 63% is not calculated according to all the funds you have used, but according to the funds for playing new shares. For example, the issue price of Zhujiang Beer issued on August 4th was 5.8 yuan/share, and the closing price was 16.08 yuan/share. If calculated according to the closing price, the income is really not low, exceeding 100%. But each number costs an average of 6 1 1,000 yuan. In actual combat, even if you use 6 10000 to buy Zhujiang beer, you may not win the lottery. This is because the upper limit for each account to subscribe for Zhujiang Beer is 56,000 shares, which is 1 12 according to the calculation of 500 shares for each number in Shenzhen. The winning rate of Zhujiang Beer is 0.474%, that is to say, in theory, a number needs 2 10 on average, about 105000 shares to win one. Then, it is necessary for all two shareholders' accounts to subscribe, and it is possible to win the lottery. And this is only "possible", not inevitable. This is because if the winning rate is less than 0.5%, the mantissa of the winning number is likely to be three digits, such as123,323,523 ... but not two digits, such as12,32,52 ... Generally speaking, the winning numbers are evenly distributed. If you are unlucky enough, the number of subscriptions falls between 123 and 323, and you can't win the lottery even if you subscribe in full.

In the past, when issuing new shares, the shareholder account limit was applicable to the subscription of new shares. At that time, securities companies could provide "batch processing" business, that is, you purchased new shares in batches from two accounts and entered the seat of the exchange, which means that the numbers you purchased can be linked together. Take Zhujiang Beer as an example. Suppose you have two accounts and buy them in full, then your upper limit can be 224. If these numbers can be connected together, you can definitely win a number. But now the rules of the game have changed and can only be purchased by a single account. Back to the assumption just now, suppose that the winning number of Zhujiang Beer is 123,323,523 ... and the number you bought falls between123 and 323, and between 323 and 523, then you can only blame yourself for bad luck. As a slogan in the Sichuan earthquake said, "I don't blame my parents for their hard life, I don't blame the government for the earthquake."

Furthermore, even if you buy a brand in Zhujiang Beer for 6 10000 yuan, its annualized rate of return is not 102% as the media said. Because there are only 500 copies of the first number, although one copy can earn 10 yuan, the first number is only 5,000 yuan, and the absolute rate of return is less than 1% according to the amount of funds.

Most of the new shares listed in July and August can get a higher premium, but it is precisely because of the increase in the income of new shares that the winning rate has declined. Therefore, for investors and friends, winning the lottery is like finding a wallet on the road, and not winning the lottery is a high probability event. According to the recent winning rate of new shares, at present, if you want to get the average income of new share subscription, you must have at least two or three shareholder accounts, and they are fully covered (each new share is subscribed in full and at the upper limit). We estimate that the annualized rate of return of new shares (based on the amount of funds used) is about 15% to 18%. However, the corresponding condition is that the amount of funds in each fund account needs about 3.5 million. As the IPO market is constantly changing, it is hard to say whether IPO will have such a high premium in the future. Therefore, it is suggested that retail investors pay more attention to the listed stock market and give up the subscription of new shares when the secondary market is good.