China’s aging population

Since my country entered an aging society, it has shown a trend of large elderly population base, rapid growth, aging, disability, and empty-nest trends. In addition, our country’s national situation is that people grow old before they get rich. Coupled with the downsizing of family structures, the problem of elderly care is extremely serious.

Data show that as of 2014, the total number of elderly people aged 60 and above in my country reached 212 million, accounting for 15.5% of the total population. China has become the country with the largest elderly population in the world.

On February 26, 2015, the National Bureau of Statistics released the 2014 National Economic and Social Development Statistical Bulletin. According to the communiqué data, at the end of 2014, the number of people aged 60 and above in my country was 212.42 million, accounting for 15.5% of the total population; the number of people aged 65 and above was 137.55 million, accounting for 10.1%, exceeding 10% for the first time. Data show that at the end of 2014, the total population of mainland China was 1,367.82 million, an increase of 7.1 million from the end of the previous year, of which the urban permanent population was 749.16 million, accounting for 54.77% of the total population. The number of births in the year was 16.87 million, with a birth rate of 12.37‰; the number of deaths was 9.77 million, with a death rate of 7.16‰; the natural growth rate was 5.21‰. The number of people whose households have been separated nationwide is 298 million, of which 253 million are migrants.

When the population of a country or region over the age of 60 accounts for 10% of the total population, or the population over the age of 65 accounts for 7% of the total population, it means that the population of the country or region is in an aging society.

The aging of the population has become more serious. The number of elderly people has exceeded 200 million.

On November 29, 2015, the Insurance Association of China, the Social Security Research Institute of the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security and other 5 Several organizations jointly released the "2015 China Employee Pension Reserve Index Large and Medium Cities Report". The "Report" shows that my country's population aging has reached a relatively serious level. Data from the sixth national census show that Hebei Province’s population aged 65 and above ranks 19th in the country with 5,919,726 people, accounting for 8.24% of the province’s total population. According to international practice, when the population aged 65 and above exceeds 7% of the total population, it is called an aging society. Obviously, Hebei Province has entered an aging society. Census results show that 26 provinces in my country have entered an aging society. According to expert predictions, during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, the elderly population in Hebei Province will enter a stage of high growth at an average annual rate exceeding 3②. This means that as one of the 26 aging provinces in the country, Hebei Province’s aging process is still accelerating.

As the capital of Hebei Province, Shijiazhuang has an even more aging population. According to relevant statistics from the Shijiazhuang Municipal Aging Working Committee, as of the end of 2011, the total population of Shijiazhuang was 9,972,927, and the number of elderly people over 60 years old was 1,467,116, accounting for 14.71% of the total population③. As early as 1993, the ratio of the elderly to the total population in Shijiazhuang began to exceed 10, making it an aging society, six years ahead of the rest of the country. Shijiazhuang has entered a period of rapid aging development and is facing an increasingly severe situation of population aging. China is the most populous country, and its population continues to expand, with an annual growth rate of 5.7 million. On the one hand, the total population continues to grow, and on the other hand, the average life span of the population continues to extend. Population aging is an inevitable and increasingly serious social problem. The China topic of the last issue of Allianz Group's "Demographic Change Report" shows that the ratio of China's retired population (population aged 60 and above) to working-age population (population aged 15 to 59) is approximately 19:100 . Calculated based on China's current retirement age of 60 years, the turning point of the labor force will be highlighted in 2013. The working-age population between the ages of 15 and 59 will reach its peak, and then begin to enter the retirement wave. At that time, the social pension security system will face severe challenges.

Against the backdrop of accelerating urbanization and an increasingly aging population, the reform of China’s social pension system seems to have a long way to go. Experts say that as the first pillar, the reform of the social pension system with the goal of sustainability is the key.

The huge pressure of population aging is testing the government's ability to plan for elderly care. According to statistics, as of the end of 2008, China had 37,623 various elderly welfare institutions and 2.45 million elderly care beds, accounting for only 1.5 of the elderly population over 60 years old. This is not only lower than the 5-7 ratio in developed countries, but also lower than that of some developing countries. The Chinese level is 2-3.

In addition, in addition to ensuring the basic life of the elderly, elderly care also requires a large number of professional nursing services suitable for the elderly in many aspects such as psychology and medicine. The development of elderly care in the future should see the elderly’s life security gradually become socialized. It is a general trend to transform family care into social care and be borne by the government. Although institutional elderly care plays a supplementary role in China's elderly welfare service system, its role is considerable. With the development of the economy and social progress, especially the aging of the population, the downsizing of families, and the urbanization of rural areas, the people's demand for elderly care services will be increasing, and the total number of existing elderly care facilities will be difficult to meet the growing demand. pension needs.

Not only that, because the overall quality of the elderly care service team is not high and the professional construction of employees lags behind, China's existing elderly care service team is far from being able to meet the objective needs of the development of the elderly care industry. (2009), the number of disabled or semi-disabled elderly people in urban China has reached 14.6, and in rural areas it has exceeded 20. This group of elderly people need professional care and attention. According to the ratio of elderly people to caregivers of 3:1, it is estimated that at least 1,000 people are needed nationwide. Thousands of elderly care workers.

There are only 220,000 employees in elderly welfare institutions across the country, and only more than 20,000 people have obtained professional qualifications for elderly care. Not only is it far from the potential needs of China’s tens of millions of disabled elderly people, but also due to the lack of services The overall quality of the team is low, and its professional level, business capabilities, and service quality cannot meet the nursing needs of the elderly to a certain extent. The serious shortage of elderly care institutions, beds and professionals has become a bottleneck for elderly care services in many cities. Since the social resources required to support the elderly are different from those to support the young, the burdens are also very different. Research results from various countries have reached similar conclusions: the average cost of raising an elderly person and the cost of children are roughly 2:1-3:1. Although the decline in the proportion of China's child population has offset the increase in the proportion of the elderly population, and the total proportion of the dependent population will not increase much for a long time, social expenditures will still grow steadily. Medical expenses and pensions are the main expenditure items of society for the elderly. In some countries in Western Europe, due to the implementation of high income tax and high social welfare policies, social security expenses have reached close to 1/3 of national income. In some years, pension expenditures in the United States exceed defense expenditures and become a major fiscal expenditure item. China's retired employee expenditures in 1978 were 1.73 billion yuan, rose to 38.89 billion yuan in 1990, and reached 408.86 billion yuan in 2003; medical expenses increased from 7.62 billion yuan in 1990 to 2003 27.13 billion yuan. China's social security expenses were as high as 13% of GDP in the 1990s and have stabilized at around 5%.

Old people need a rich spiritual life. The suicide rate among the elderly in many economically developed countries remains high, and various types of mental illness plague a large number of elderly people. The reason is that family ties in these countries are loose, and the elderly who live alone after being widowed especially feel isolated and helpless. China emphasizes respecting the elderly, caring for the elderly, doing something for the elderly, and enjoying themselves. Departments such as family and community organizations have done a lot of work in caring for the elderly.

Old people need a fulfilling material life. Since the 1990s, the income of China's elderly has increased significantly. According to a survey by the statistics department, the average income of urban elderly people in 2000 increased by 3.1 times compared with 1992, and the income of rural elderly people increased by 1.7 times during the same period. A one-time sample survey of China's urban and rural elderly population shows that 75.6% of the elderly in urban areas and 55.6% in rural areas feel that their lives are secure. In rural areas, 86.1% of the elderly believe that their living standards have been significantly improved compared to those who worked in production teams in the past. In cities, 70.3% of the elderly believe that they are "more financially secure" than retired workers in the past.

The number of modern living facilities for elderly families in cities increased from 4 in 1992 to 8 in 2000. 50 urban elderly people have independent gas, telephone, refrigerator and indoor toilet facilities, and the average housing area per household reaches more than 70 square meters. Rural elderly people 50 years old have two modern household facilities, and the average housing area per household reaches more than 80 square meters. It should be pointed out that although the living standards of China's elderly have greatly improved, their consumption accounts for a small proportion of total social consumption, and there is still a lot of room for expansion. Their household property is also significantly less than that of young adults. A survey of 4,000 urban residents conducted by the National Bureau of Statistics in 2002 showed that the average household property of elderly households aged 60 to 70 was 162,000 yuan, and that of those over 70 was 157,000 yuan, which was less than that of young and middle-aged households aged 35 to 40. 43.

The burden of medical expenses on the elderly in China increases rapidly with age. According to the National Health Services Survey in 1993 and 1998, the annual hospitalization expenses for urban residents were 817 yuan for those aged 0 to 4 years old, rising to 2244 yuan for those aged 10 to 19 years old, 4577 yuan for those aged 40 to 49 years old, and 5096 yuan for those aged 65 and above. It can be seen that the elderly have many diseases, which are often more serious and require more resources to be consumed. According to the analysis of a large number of domestic and foreign data, the medical expenses of retired employees compared with those of active employees are about 3:1, and in some countries it even reaches 5:1. China is in the process of deepening the reform of its medical system, and these data require further observation and research. Some cities attach great importance to strengthening community construction, allowing the elderly to receive convenient medical and health consultation services in the community, and reducing medical expenses. These are useful experiences. In terms of management system, social security and commercial insurance can also be combined to further increase the intensity of security. The rural cooperative medical system has been piloted in some areas and provides strong support for the treatment of serious diseases. According to surveys, 60% of poor farmers who have returned to poverty after getting out of poverty are due to illness. Improving social security and commercial insurance in terms of diseases, disasters, etc. will make people in rural areas more prosperous, especially the elderly in rural areas. Necessary institutional support.

The general summary is four points: 1. Increased social burden 2. The development of social and cultural welfare institutions is not suitable for the aging of the population 3. The function of family care for the elderly is weakened 4. The elderly have less demand for medical care and life services The needs are outstanding.

Jin Weigang, director of the Social Security Research Institute of the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, said that due to the increasing aging of the population, my country's pension security burden is heavy, the construction of the pension security system is under great pressure, and the reform of the pension insurance system is extremely difficult. The impact of pension security on social and economic development will be unprecedented. The following conclusions and opinions can be drawn from the outlook and analysis of population aging in China and the world:

1. The phenomenon of population aging in China in the 21st century is the result of high fertility and low death in the 1950s and 1960s. The inevitable consequence is consistent with the development trend of world population.

2． Since its implementation in the 1970s, the basic national policy of family planning has resulted in more than 300 million fewer births in China, reducing the number of elderly people in the mid-21st century and thus reducing the burden on society to support the elderly.

3. Successful family planning work has enabled China's total labor force to remain above 50% of the total population until around the 2030s, when aging is serious, and even reach 65% of the total population before the 2020s when the total labor force is at its most abundant. .

4. Large population, small land, and relative lack of resources will remain China’s basic national conditions for a long time to come. Although the per capita cultivated land in Japan is only 7 cents, the average cultivated land per worker is 13 acres, which is much higher than that in China. Therefore, only by improving labor productivity and accelerating development can we better meet the various needs of supporting the elderly, and this is the fundamental way out to solve the aging problem.

5． China's economic development is transforming from extensive to intensive. In the future, to improve the social ability to support the elderly, we should focus on cultivating a high-quality population and take various measures to transform China from a country with a large population to a country with a large human resources. To this end, China should adopt policies to stabilize low fertility levels, cultivate a high-quality population, improve economic and social systems, improve service and security capabilities, pay attention to the all-round development of people, and coordinate the development of population, economy, society, resources, ecology, and the environment.

6． There are huge differences in population among different regions in China. In the early 1990s, Shanghai's birth rate was lower than its death rate. Since 1993, it has entered a phase of natural negative population growth. The average life expectancy of the population has reached the level of the longest-living countries in the world. In some districts, the proportion of elderly people was close to 1 as early as 10 years ago. /4. At the same time, the population of a few provinces is still very young, and it will take about ten years to reach zero population growth. In view of this situation, China's population and related policies should not be one-size-fits-all, but should adopt the principle of classified guidance and adapting measures to local conditions.

7. China's family structure is undergoing rapid transformation. The impact of this change will be reflected in many aspects such as social structure and function, interpersonal and intergenerational relationships, intra-family economic mobility, lifestyles and values. These changes will also have a profound impact on aging work. The government should accordingly make appropriate arrangements in community construction, pension security, medical system, social services, etc.

8. The elderly not only need social support, but also have high social value. Many elderly people in China are still ambitious and continue to make contributions in various fields. The knowledge, experience, prestige, moral character, and abilities of the elderly are all valuable assets of society. Promoting "doing something for the elderly" is one of China's unique policies on aging, which fully reflects the importance and respect for the elderly and should continue to be As an important policy for China’s aging work.

9． The concept of healthy aging has attracted increasing attention from the international community. The United Nations has proposed healthy aging as the global goal to solve the aging problem. Healthy aging refers to the ability of individuals to maintain good physical, psychological, intellectual, social, and economic functions when entering old age. If a large proportion of the elderly in a country or region belongs to healthy aging, the role of the elderly can be fully exerted, and the negative effects of aging are restricted or alleviated, then the aging process or phenomenon can be regarded as healthy aging. ation, or successful aging. Achieving healthy aging requires coordinated efforts from all aspects of society and the active participation of the elderly. China should make great achievements in this regard and strive to provide an example to the world. How to Cope with Population Aging The fundamental solution to the problem of population aging lies in accelerating economic development and strengthening the country's economic strength. However, the aging problem has its own particularities. If it is handled well, it will become a positive factor in economic and social development; if it is not handled well, it may become a restrictive factor.