Nanjing property market: "Golden Three" does not give force to "Silver Four", we will wait and see.

In the past "Golden Three", the sales performance of Nanjing property market was only half that of the same period last year. About 1.5 million sets of new houses in "Yinsi" entered the market, which may trigger a "blowout" in the property market. Experts in the industry pointed out that under strict control, this extraordinary sales situation that is destined to be "golden, three silver and four" will affect the trend of Nanjing property market this year. ...

"inflection point theory" runs rampant

If the "Golden Three" in 20 13 was slightly inferior because of the "national five articles" at that time, then this year's "Golden Three" is generally dull in the deterrence of "Ning Seven Articles". Statistics show that although the Nanjing property market has been rising for 22 months, the transaction volume in March has not yet reached 5,000 sets, which has shrunk by more than half compared with last year, making the speculation that the Nanjing property market will encounter an inflection point rampant.

In addition, some properties in Chengbei, Xianlin and Jiangbei districts put out special slogans or reduced prices in disguise, which became the concrete embodiment of Nanjing's "following the trend of Hangzhou and Changzhou to reduce prices" and also affected the expectations of buyers in March. A real estate in the north of the city launched some special housing, allowing buyers to bluntly offer unprecedented benefits; The renovation of a real estate in Xianlin is regarded by the outside world as an important means for developers to reduce prices in disguise; Agile Riverside International, located in Jiangbei, changed the route of low-end luxury houses and reduced the minimum area of 230 square meters to 130-200 square meters. ...

Fortunately, after a slightly bleak start, the strength of the Nanjing property market in late March made people find some "golden three" shadows. Nearly 6,000 suites were concentrated in the market in the last two weeks of March to "remedy", which made Nanjing's house-viewing army active again at the weekend. According to online real estate data in Nanjing, the average daily subscription volume in Nanjing reached 35 1 set last week, which was more than last Sunday. Last Saturday, Nanjing * * * subscribed for 839 new houses, setting a single-day high in March. The area where new houses entered the market also gradually extended from Jiangning and Jiangbei in early March to Hexi, Chengbei and Xianlin.

Multi-channel housing entered the market with high profile.

Considering that Nanjing's housing price control target was not completed last year, in early March, the Nanjing Municipal Government issued the "Ning Qi Tiao", which mentioned that it would control housing prices by quarterly classification. Perhaps because of this, in the "Golden Phase III", it is not uncommon for many developers to announce a delay in opening because they did not get a sales license. However, in the "Silver Four", the previous backlog of wait-and-see properties finally broke out. According to incomplete statistics, about 83 sets of "Yin Si" Nanjing (including metropolitan area) and 1.50 million suites have entered the market, increasing by 1.80% year-on-year. Throughout April, there was a "blowout" of new houses.

In Jiangning and Jiangbei, it is estimated that there will be about 7,500 suites in April, accounting for about half of the city's housing supply. Some of these properties have been pushed after the opening in March, exceeding 70%. High-profile listing not only enriches the choices of buyers, but also greatly relieves the inventory pressure of new houses in Nanjing. At the end of February, the inventory in Nanjing was only about 35,000 sets, hitting a new low. In March and April, the replenishment of nearly 20,000 new houses made the city's inventory sufficient.

But there was only one pure "Japanese CD" in March, which was far from the same period last year. It also reminds developers that sales need means, and running volume is king! Recently, some real estates have slogan of "down payment 10%" to attract buyers' attention; In addition, star visits, sending fuel cards, sending Rolls-Royce for a test drive and other activities have also been superimposed and innovated in traditional means such as special rooms and discounts, giving buyers more choices.

Test and control the "landing" effect

In the "Ning Qi Tiao" released last month, it was clearly stated that if the price index rose too high in the last quarter, the targets for the current quarter would be dynamically adjusted, including giving priority to the declaration of small-sized units and temporarily not issuing sales licenses for high-priced units. However, even though the housing transaction volume in Nanjing was far lower than expected in March, it was a foregone conclusion that the housing price rose month-on-month, and judging from the announced opening price, the new "Yinsi" site generally rose again compared with "Jinsan". On the one hand, the number of houses sold is declining, on the other hand, house prices are still rising, which makes the Nanjing property market "golden, three silver and four" quite embarrassing.

In the second quarter after April, under the situation that the price increase is a foregone conclusion, if the increase exceeds expectations, how the Nanjing Municipal Government will implement the provisions of "Ningqi Article" will become the focus of attention. Whether the indirect regulation of housing prices by suspending the issuance of sales licenses can take effect may be verified after the "Silver Four". In addition, it is expected that the real estate registration system introduced in June will play a role and can it squeeze out some houses? The final result is worth looking forward to.

According to industry insiders, after Nanjing greatly strengthened the regulation of housing prices this year, the total transaction volume of "Golden Three Silver Four" in the city is estimated to be no more than 1 10,000 sets, which is obviously shrinking compared with the same period last year. The trend of declining purchasing power and rising house prices, on the one hand, is because the cost of land acquisition by developers is increasing, on the other hand, it also shows that the game between developers and buyers is strengthening. In the future, whether buyers agree that house prices continue to rise slightly, or land prices fall, house prices fall, or even the "turning point" of the property market appears, the results will eventually be revealed.

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