Is the news of global cooling true? Isn't it the greenhouse effect? Why does it get cold?

It's true. Global cooling became the academic mainstream in the early 197s, and the warm period of climate is coming to an end. Habiburlo Abdu Samatov, director of the Space Research Laboratory of Pulkov Observatory of Russian Academy of Sciences, published a paper in 27, saying that the earth passed the peak of global warming from 1998 to 25, and global warming was mainly caused by the sun's unusually high luminosity, and the luminous intensity of the sun gradually decreased, reaching the lowest point in about 241, which was the reason for the earth's remarkable cooling, but the ocean would delay the process of the earth's remarkable cooling, and the world became cold.

? Global warming is a scam! "When world leaders gathered in Copenhagen to discuss new emission reduction targets, someone outside the meeting made such a slogan. Shortly after the end of this climate summit, which finally reached a non-legally binding treaty, as if to confirm this slogan, a rare cold swept almost the entire northern hemisphere.

? In mid-December, 29, a snowstorm swept across Europe, and the snow depth in some areas exceeded 5 cm, resulting in traffic paralysis. From December 19 to 2, 29, there was a general snowstorm in the eastern United States, and the snow depth in Washington reached 61 cm, the highest since December 1932. On January 6, 21, the lowest temperature in Beijing reached-16.7℃, breaking the record of the lowest temperature in the first half of January since 1971.

Actually, "global cooling" is not a new theory. The global cold weather from 1947 to 1976 once made many meteorologists exclaim that "the Little Ice Age came"

Back in the 194s, Yugoslav scientist Milankovic proposed that the earth's orbit eccentricity, ecliptic angle and precession with periods of 1,, 4, and 2, years, respectively, made the earth's climate in the last period of Cenozoic era produce ice age and interglacial. In 197s, a series of geological data, including deep-sea rock cores, coral reefs, pollen, tree rings and ice cores, proved the existence of this cycle.

Academician Qin Dahe believes that climate warming will lead to an obvious increase in extreme weather events. In recent years, the obvious increase of extreme cold weather events at home and abroad is an example; Coeroli, who supported "the coming of the Little Ice Age", said that during the ice age and interglacial period, the temperature of the earth was very stable, but in the transitional zone, the climate on the earth would become extremely extreme, and extremely hot weather and extremely cold weather might change without any obstacles. "The earth is entering a natural" turning point ".You don't know which extreme it will suddenly turn to. I just want to say that the extreme ice age is as difficult as global warming." The IPCC clearly pointed out in the report that the level of understanding of the assessment of extreme weather frequency and intensity, including cold waves, is still low.

The words of Wang Pinxian, an academician of China Academy of Sciences, may enable us to re-examine the two theories of climate change: "Climate change is happening on the time scale from interannual to over one million years. Different scales of climate change overlap like Russian dolls; Not only do they overlap, but they are also intertwined through interaction, so that it is impossible to correctly understand the shorter process without considering the long process. " He believes that it is not yet possible to judge what period the earth is in according to Milankovic's cycle theory, and more surveys are needed to support it.

researcher Chen Wen revealed: "the cold wave in the northern hemisphere has given us a hint to improve the weather forecasting model." Because the signal of this oscillation is transmitted from the stratosphere to the troposphere, and now the weather prediction mainly focuses on the troposphere, and little attention is paid to the stratosphere. "After improving the model, the stratosphere will be included in the research scope, and the prediction may be more accurate."

Perhaps, in the face of a huge number of complex factors causing climate change and the deviation and deficiency of instruments and data, what scientists can do is to keep studying and make the results closer to the facts. Qin Dahe, chairman of the National Climate Committee, answered in the negative: "Global warming is an indisputable fact, and it is by no means a random guess! Taking climate change in China as an example is enough to prove this point. " He believes that there is a misunderstanding about global warming, that is, global warming should be manifested as rising temperatures. In fact, global warming may lead to both an increase in temperature and a decrease in temperature, and the fluctuation range is large.

"The negative anomaly of Arctic Oscillation is the main reason for the low temperature", which is a weather phenomenon, not a climate phenomenon. On January 14th, 21, the National Climate Center held the Seminar on Extreme Cold Events in the Northern Hemisphere and Winter Climate Prediction Technology in China, and more than a dozen climate experts came to this conclusion.

oscillation is the change of air pressure in two areas. "We can regard the North Pole and the surrounding middle and high latitudes as a teacup full of water", and researcher Chen Wen, director of the Research Center of Monsoon System of Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, vividly compared: "When you stir it counterclockwise with a spoon, the water in the teacup will form a vortex, which is the polar vortex with low air pressure, and the water rotating around it is the westerly belt around the middle and high latitudes of the North Pole, while the stirring of the spoon is the disturbance such as atmospheric fluctuation." Stir fast, the pressure of polar vortex is low, the pressure of middle and high latitudes is high, and the westerly wind is strong. This is the positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation, when cold air is not easy to come out from the polar regions. On the contrary, if the agitation is slow, the air pressure in the polar region will not be so low, and the air pressure in the middle and high latitudes will decrease, and the westerly wind will be weak, which is the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation. At this time, the cold air in the Arctic will easily reach the middle and high latitudes, causing a cold wave.

"These disturbances include atmospheric fluctuations with waves as long as several Qian Qian meters, whose wavelength scale is almost comparable to that of radius of the earth, and we call it planetary waves." Chen Wen said that a high pressure and a low pressure can form a planetary wave, and there are two planetary waves, which can just circle the northern hemisphere: one wave from Siberia high pressure to Aleutian low pressure; Another wave is from Canada high pressure to Iceland low pressure. Planetary waves propagate in two directions, one is from the lower troposphere to the upper troposphere, and at the same time, it gradually tends to the tropics; In the process of upward propagation, the other branch slowly inclines to the polar region and has been spreading into the stratosphere. More waves are transmitted to the stratosphere, but less to the tropics. According to the normal situation, the planetary waves in the troposphere mainly propagate from the middle and high latitudes to the tropics. If there are fewer waves propagating to the tropics, it is an abnormal situation. Subtract from the normal situation, as if the negative waves are propagating from the tropics to the middle and high latitudes and the polar regions. This negative wave will weaken the polar vortex and increase the polar pressure, which is closely related to the Arctic Oscillation.

Chen Wen also told reporters that during their research, they defined the multi-year average value of air flow around the earth as basic air flow. "In addition to planetary waves, there are waves with wavelength scales of several kilometers and waves with time scales of several days." For weather forecast, the interaction between these waves with different scales and between waves and basic air flow is a "complex nonlinear system" and it is difficult to make long-term prediction. However, it is generally believed that the Arctic Oscillation is a natural fluctuation of the atmosphere, which cannot prove whether the global temperature is getting warmer or colder. Most climatologists also believe that the frequent occurrence of extreme weather events cannot directly prove global warming.