The performance of Shangfeng Cement has been "halved", and the stock market has lost more than one billion yuan. When will the cement industry bottom out?

The volume and price of cement products fell together, and the price of coal rose, which made Shangfeng Cement (000672. SZ) "halved" in 2022. In addition, changes in the fair value of the company's securities investment also lead to floating losses.

On the evening of 65438+ 10 19, Shangfeng Cement released its annual performance forecast for 2022, and it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the mother will reach 920 million yuan to10.30 billion yuan in 2022, a year-on-year decrease of 52.67% to 57.72%. Based on this calculation, in the fourth quarter of 2022, the company achieved a net profit of RMB 74 million to RMB 65,438+0.65,438+0 billion, a decrease of 20.86% from the previous month to 46.76%.

Relevant persons of the company told the Cailian reporter, "In the fourth quarter of last year, the northwest region was out of stock due to the peak production, so the sales volume declined; Southwest China has a short kiln opening time and low cement price, which is basically unprofitable. The relatively good peak season in East China is not prosperous. In the fourth quarter, sales declined and prices did not rise. "

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the national cement output in the fourth quarter of 2022 was 564 million tons, down 5.07% year-on-year. In addition, according to the data of 250 cement enterprises in China surveyed by Centennial Construction Network, the cement output in the fourth quarter of 2022 was/kloc-0.08 million tons, down 6% year-on-year, and the cement production and sales in the fourth quarter showed a downward trend.

Jiang Yuanlin, chief analyst of century-old building cement, told the Cailian reporter, "In 2022, the profit of the cement industry was 68 billion yuan to 70 billion yuan, down about 60% year-on-year; In 2023, the profit or decline of the cement industry narrowed under the background of demand bottoming, controllable cost and adjustable supply. "

According to the announcement, the reason for the change of Shangfeng Cement's performance in 2022 can be summarized as "the decline in market demand, the decline in the volume and price of cement products, and the increase in manufacturing costs". The increase in manufacturing costs is mainly caused by the increase in coal prices.

Previously, Shangfeng Cement pointed out that coal prices fluctuated greatly this year, and the company reduced procurement costs by signing long-term contracts and expanding and optimizing procurement channels, but the overall procurement price still rose sharply. As one of the main reasons, the increase of coal cost in the first three quarters pushed the clinker cost up by about 30%.

According to an investor relations activity record disclosed in June 5438+February 65438+May, 2022, regarding the overall judgment of next year's demand and prosperity, Shangfeng Cement said that the company is optimistic about the recovery of prosperity next year, and will flexibly adjust the expansion speed and development rhythm, shift its focus to the optimization and extension of industrial chain, increase the proportion of some high-margin products, and intensify the development of optical storage new energy sector as the company's transformation and upgrading.

It is worth mentioning that Shangfeng Cement expects that the impact of non-recurring gains and losses in 2022 will be attributed to the decrease of the net profit of shareholders of listed companies by about 65.438+0.2 billion yuan, mainly due to the floating losses caused by changes in the fair value of the company's securities investment during the reporting period.

In other words, behind the performance of Shangfeng Cement, it also lost more than one billion yuan because of stock trading.

According to the third quarterly report of Shangfeng Cement, as of September 30, the company's trading financial assets were 8,654,380,600 yuan, down 6.27% from the beginning of 2022. The company once said that trading financial assets are equity instrument investment and bank wealth management products.

The reporter of Cailian noted that the list of securities investments listed in the semi-annual report of Shangfeng Cement in 2022 shows that among the 10 stocks held or traded by Shangfeng Cement, 5 are peers, including Conch (600585. SH), Tianshan shares (000877. SZ), Evergreen (000789. SZ) and Tapai Group (000).

In fact, the cement enterprises that lose money in stock trading are not just oversight cement. The 2022 performance forecast of Tapai Group shows that it is estimated that the non-recurring profit and loss during the reporting period will be about-50 million yuan. The main reason for the loss is that the company's securities investment during the reporting period was affected by the decline of the stock index. Under the influence of superposition, Tapai Group's net profit in 2022 is expected to drop by more than 83% year-on-year.