What will be the housing price in China in the next five years? Will it go up or down? What is the main reason?

To paraphrase a sentence in the stock market: "There are no stocks that only fall but don't rise, and there are no stocks that only rise and don't fall." Commodity markets also follow this rule, and house prices are no exception. Take two pictures first to warm up.

Obviously, the real estate markets in the United States and Japan have experienced the accumulation and bursting of bubbles. So what is the future of China's real estate market? I think the year of 20 17 is also doomed, which is of course the greatest good news for us ordinary people.

This is the historical house price trend chart of four first-tier cities in the north, Guangzhou and Shenzhen. The trend is basically the same, but the growth rate is slightly different. Now I will make a technical analysis of China's housing prices with the classic Five Waves Theory combined with the historical trend of American and Japanese housing prices.

In the standard five-wave structure, there were two obvious small pullbacks in 2008- 10 and1-13, during which three waves rose mainly, with strong explosive force, short cycle and fast rising speed. Yes, with the recent introduction of a series of national control policies, house prices will peak at 20 17. Of course, this is just my personal opinion. You don't have to be overly alarmed if you hold a lot of real estate.

In addition, the price of goods is of course inseparable from the relationship between supply and demand. As we all know, there was a downturn in real estate in 15. Then, at the end of 16, under a series of stimulus policies of the state and local governments, especially under the vigorous "movement" to reduce production capacity, the real estate industry in China "recast its glory", followed by the continuous influx of developers, and the stagnant real estate resumed work on a regular basis. The centralized release of new production capacity in 17 years will have a great impact on the just-balanced relationship between supply and demand in the commercial housing market, which means that the price decline in the second half of the year is inevitable.

There is also a remarkable phenomenon, that is, listed companies have recently piled up to sell houses. People often say that the stock market is a barometer of the real economy, which fully embodies the "advanced" attribute of the capital market. Ordinary people only buy and sell real estate when they need it, but only according to the real-time price, the capital market will make an early judgment on the real economy. Therefore, the bosses of listed companies have been in contact with the capital market for many years. What they do is an expectation, and what they grasp is an advance. It is inevitable that they are not optimistic about the property market in the next few years.

? Based on various factors, it is very likely that the price of commercial housing will reach a big peak soon, and the more accurate time should be in the second half of 17. After that, China's real estate industry will enter a serious downturn that lasts for several years.