Loan market analysis report

Competitive background of real estate mortgage intermediary industry

Competitive background of real estate mortgage intermediary industry

The fierce competition in the real estate mortgage intermediary industry is mainly due to the rapid development of the industry, strong market demand and flexible design of mortgage products, which attracts a large number of customers. In addition, there are more and more participants in the mortgage intermediary industry, which brings greater challenges to the competition.

First of all, the competition pattern of mortgage intermediary industry is market-oriented, and banks, trust companies, securities companies and other financial institutions are active in this industry, forming more intense competition. Secondly, the competition pattern of mortgage intermediary industry is also price competition. Various financial institutions attract customers by continuously lowering mortgage interest rates, thus increasing market share. In addition, the competition pattern of mortgage intermediary industry is also service competition, and various financial institutions actively develop mortgage business and provide better services to meet customers' needs.

Generally speaking, the competition pattern of mortgage intermediary industry is varied, involving marketization, price competition and service competition. The competition is fierce, but it also provides customers with more choices.

Small Cash Loan Market and Product Analysis

In recent years, with the rapid development of internet finance, various industries have been pushed to the forefront in the past year or two. First, because of its development, it has filled the gap in the financial industry and practiced inclusive finance's philosophy; Secondly, high interest rates and industry irregularities have caused various questions. It is the small cash loan industry.

Yu 'ebao was born on 20 13, which promoted the rapid development of Internet finance industry. The essence of finance is capital connection, and Internet finance is no exception, with one end connected to borrowers and the other end connected to investors. Yu 'ebao makes "national financial management" possible; The cash loan industry can be said to make it possible for the whole people to borrow.

Without delay, let's solve the mystery of the cash loan industry and analyze the excellent cash loan products on the market.

Cash loan is the abbreviation of cash loan business, which is an unsecured, unsecured and scene-free credit loan granted to natural persons. The loan method and repayment method are flexible and convenient, and the approval is timely and fast. Generally speaking, cash loan refers to short-term cash loan business, that is, personal credit with a loan term of 6 months or less and a loan amount of 6,543,800 yuan or less.

According to the types of cash loans on the market at present, it can be divided into four categories: borrowing and repayment, ultra-short-term loans (similar to foreign payday loans), short-term loans and medium-term loans.

According to Baidu search index, the cash loan industry began to flourish in 20 15 and reached its peak in 20 16. 20 17 with the tightening of supervision, the industry is facing big waves.

It is inevitable that the cash loan industry will allow those long-tail users who cannot be served by banks to enjoy financial services. Before the emergence of internet finance, "private lending" was the embryonic form of cash loans. Cash loan solves the urgent need of users' funds and is deeply loved by users in market segments. At the same time, cash loans have been questioned recently, all kinds of negative news have emerged one after another, and the supervision has struck hard, and a reshuffle is coming. It is not necessarily a good thing for excellent cash loan enterprises. All that remains is gold.

At present, the cash loan industry is mixed, with 2345 loan king, cash bus, mobile phone loan, auction loan and pleasant loan prominent in the market. This paper focuses on the analysis of ultra-short-term small cash loan industry. Strictly speaking, pleasant loans do not belong to the category of ultra-short-term loans. Although the borrower of auction loan belongs to the category, it can not be regarded as a small cash loan industry because of its many comprehensive businesses, which is beyond the scope of this paper.

Before the analysis, we have a preliminary understanding of these three enterprises.

Mobile phone loan is an intelligent micro-credit product under Qianlong Finance, which is based on the intelligent risk control system of big data, cloud computing and machine learning. 20 13, 10 was established in June, with nearly 20 million registered users, which is a promising company for Sequoia Capital.

2345 Loan King is a small cash loan product under the A-share listed company 2345. In the first half of 20 17, the net profit of Lender 2,345 was more than 400 million yuan, accounting for half of the revenue of 2,345. Is a well-deserved king of gold.

Cash Bus is a full-line online loan APP based on the mobile Internet, which mainly solves the micro-loan needs of users in their daily lives. The "Cash Bus" service team uses big data and machine learning to create a fully automated process, aiming to provide users with a simple, convenient, flexible and fast new loan model.

Next, let's briefly analyze these three products from the user experience elements. The elements of user experience from abstract to concrete are: strategy layer, scope layer, structure layer, framework layer and presentation layer, as shown in the following figure:

The function point of cash loan app is very simple, and its basic functions include borrowing, authentication, binding card, progress inquiry, repayment and so on. Expand the function point, mobile phone loans are the most abundant, and mobile phone loans can be used for lightning loans and cash installment loans. Insufficient platform funds can be drained to other cooperation platforms, which is relatively large at present. The mobile phone loan lacks the function of user-initiated cash withdrawal, and cash withdrawal can only be initiated by the system. The simplest function range is cash bus, which is similar to the lightning loan function of mobile phone loan. Only loans of 500/ 1000 yuan and 7/ 14 days are provided, and the loan amount and term are limited.

Small cash loan products have simple functional structure, and the following performance layers are: mobile phone loan, 2345 loan king, cash bus.

Both mobile phone loan and 2345 loan king are top scrolling advertising spaces, which are basically routines on APP, but the advertising copy design price of mobile phone loan is ugly. Why did the designer of mobile phone loan go?

Functionally, mobile phone loans are both cash installments and single installments. At present, mobile phone loans mainly promote cash installment, and the amount and frequency of installment are also increasing. Compared with a single installment product, the installment product has lower risk, higher handling fee and higher user stickiness. The interface of 2345 Lender is relatively simple, and you can freely choose the loan amount by sliding, but the loan term is limited to 1 month. The function of cash bus products is very simple, with two amounts and two terms, and it belongs to the products that make the ultra-short-term borrowing experience the ultimate. The shorter the term of ultra-short-term products, the higher the overdue amount, but the corresponding platform income will be high (earning overdue penalty interest, etc.). )

The general path of the development of Internet finance, first, Yu 'ebao set off a wave of national financial management, then P2P companies mushroomed, and then the small cash loan industry broke out. There are hundreds of millions of cardless (credit card) users in China, and their financial needs are just needed. In my opinion, companies that can do the following can survive in the tide.

1) Understand the essential needs of users. For example, users of small cash loans first seek to borrow money, and then they can borrow money quickly. In order to be quick, there is no insight into the core needs of users.

2) Multidimensional risk control system. Intelligent risk control system based on big data, depicting loans overdue probability from more dimensions. Risk control and user experience are seesaws and need to be balanced. One of the future development directions of big data risk control is how to establish a risk control system based on high user experience.

3) Keep up with the pace of supervision. The biggest risk of internet finance is regulatory risk. Small cash loan companies need to keep up with the pace of supervision, thoroughly understand the regulatory policies, and cooperate with the transformation in time. Lucky enterprises often can't go far.

To sum up, it is six words: user, risk control and supervision.

The quoted interest rate in the loan market is lowered by one year and five years or more. Can the housing consumption burden of residents be reduced?

Lowering the quoted interest rate in the loan market for one year or more than five years can reduce the housing consumption burden of residents. First, the corresponding procurement cost is reduced. Secondly, the corresponding people can enjoy more welfare policies. Secondly, many buyers can be more inclined to buy a house. Secondly, property buyers can get a better development status. It is necessary to analyze from the following four aspects whether lowering the quoted interest rate in the loan market for one year and five years or more can reduce the housing consumption burden of residents.

First, the corresponding purchase cost is decreasing.

First of all, the corresponding purchase cost is decreasing. For many people who need to buy a house, it can reduce their purchase cost to a certain extent, which is very beneficial and can promote the development of many property markets in order to obtain a stronger state.

Second, the corresponding people can enjoy more welfare policies.

Secondly, the corresponding population can enjoy more welfare policies. For many people, they can enjoy some welfare policies formulated by some government departments, which can make many people take the initiative to reduce the corresponding burden, which is very beneficial.

Third, many buyers are more inclined to buy a house.

Moreover, many property buyers prefer to buy a house. For many property buyers, it is still in a wait-and-see state. So if more favorable policies are released, they will choose to change from the corresponding wait-and-see state to the corresponding purchase state.

Fourth, it can make buyers get a better development status.

In addition, it can also make property buyers get a better development state. For many property buyers, they will get a brand-new development state, mainly because their concept of buying a house will change, which makes the corresponding property buyers more willing to believe that buying a house now is a correct choice.

Property buyers should pay great attention to:

We should strengthen multi-channel understanding and purchase houses when policies and benefits are released.

I would like to ask, is the loan industry going to withdraw from the market in the first half of 2020, and there is no development prospect?

Financial supervision is becoming stricter, and the small loan industry is facing reshuffle and differentiation.

The company has experienced a period of rapid growth since the publication of the Guiding Opinions on Company Pilot in 2008. In 20 17, the Notice on the Company's Relevant Tax Policies and the Implementation Plan for the Special Remediation of the Company's Network Business Risks were issued, which provided a policy basis for promoting the further development of small loan companies. From July 2065438 to July 2009, the central bank, together with relevant departments, drafted the Trial Measures for Supervision and Management of Financial Holding Companies (Draft for Comment), which clarified the scope of supervision, tightened market access and shareholder qualifications, and strengthened the authenticity of capital sources and the compliance of capital utilization.

Summary of industrial supervision policies in China as of 20 19.

Source: Organized by Prospective Industry Research Institute.

Under strict financial supervision, the blindly expanding small loan industry is facing reshuffle and differentiation, and small loan companies that deviate from the original intention of inclusive business are facing challenges. According to the Company Statistics Report for the First Half of 20 19 released by the Central Bank, by the end of June 20 19, there were 7,797 * * * companies nationwide, a decrease of 336 compared with the beginning of the year; The number of employees reached 84,783, a decrease of 6,056 from the beginning of the year.

2014-2019h1China Company and Staff Statistics.

Data source: compiled by Prospective Industry Research Institute.

The paid-in capital and loan balance of the industry are in a downward trend.

Since June, 2065438+2008, the paid-in capital and loan balance of small loan companies in China have shown a double downward trend. According to statistics,

In the first half of 20 19, the loan balance of national microfinance companies was 924 1 100 million yuan, a decrease of 30.9 billion yuan compared with the beginning of the year; The paid-in capital was 823.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 654.38+028 billion yuan compared with the beginning of the year. The balance of loans fell instead of rising, indicating that it was difficult to operate.

On the contrary, the balance of various loans of financial institutions continued to grow in 20 19. By the second quarter of 20 19, the balance of RMB loans of financial institutions was 145.97 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.0%. It is not difficult to see that compared with companies, the investment and financing scale of financial institutions is much larger than that of companies. What is more prominent is that the investment and loan scale of financial institutions is increasing in the first half of 20 19. On the contrary, the company's loan stock scale is actually declining, with a decline of about 3%.

For more data analysis, please refer to the analysis report "China Industry Market Foresight and Investment Strategic Planning" issued by Forward-looking Industry Research Institute. At the same time, Forward-looking Industry Research Institute also proposes solutions such as industry big data, industry planning, industry declaration, industrial park planning, and industry investment promotion.

Is the bank mortgage easy? Personal loans have accelerated, and most of them are still four to six months.

A few days ago, a news about relaxing housing mortgage loans was widely circulated: for more than five months, people's banks around the country have been informing major banks in hot cities to clear the backlog of mortgage loans. In this regard, the first financial reporter asked a number of banks in Shanghai, and they all said that they have not received relevant notices yet.

At the same time, the reporter visited and called the mortgage managers of a number of state-owned banks and branches of stock banks, and learned that at present, most of the mortgage loans are issued in June or July, and the overall distribution rhythm has not changed significantly. The approval period is still about 2 months, and the lending time is mostly 4 to 6 months. However, the lending cycle of some banks has been shortened, and some banks have also "restarted" the second-hand housing mortgage business.

In the eyes of the industry, compared with before, the current mortgage market does have a certain degree of relaxation, but it should be noted that this relaxation is only aimed at reasonable needs, such as meeting the needs of first-time home buyers. On the whole, all localities are still strictly controlling the market order, further curbing all kinds of real estate speculation, and mortgage investment will adhere to the "stable and orderly" delivery requirements.

The data also confirms this. According to the latest data released by the central bank, the real estate loans of financial institutions have been significantly accelerated recently. At the end of 10, the balance of personal housing loans of banking financial institutions was 37.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 348 103 billion yuan in that month, an increase of10/300 million yuan compared with September.

Individual banks speed up lending.

Influenced by multiple factors, mortgage issuance has attracted much attention from the market since the second half of the year. Previously, many banks' mortgage quotas were very tight.

"We don't accept the second-hand housing mortgage business for the time being, and the quota is relatively tight. Some previous stocks have not been processed; The new house mortgage business is still doing. " The credit manager of a big bank told reporters in early September.

At that time, the reporter learned by visiting a number of state-owned banks and branches of joint-stock banks that some banks have suspended the acceptance of second-hand housing mortgage business, some banks said that it would take half a year from acceptance to lending, and some banks made it clear that they could not determine the lending time.

Now the situation has changed a little, and some banks have begun to accept the second-hand housing mortgage business again. "The approval is two months, but the time for lending new business cannot be determined. At present, the backlog of stock mortgages is being released one after another, mostly in June and July. " The credit manager of a branch of ICBC told the reporter. Prior to this, the sub-branch basically suspended the second-hand housing mortgage business.

A lender of a joint-stock bank branch also told reporters that the bank once suspended its mortgage business, but at present, the handling of second-hand housing loans has resumed, and the time is slightly faster. "The approval time is 2 weeks, the second home loan period is 2 months, and the first home loan period is 4 months." The source said that in the past, the loan time for the second suite was about 4 months, and the first suite was more than 6 months.

"But there is no exact time, it is an estimate." Lenders of the above branches also told reporters that the current loans are basically customers who applied for mortgages in June and July.

In the eyes of the industry, the "restart" of the second-hand housing mortgage business of some banks and the shortening of the lending cycle also reflect the "improvement" of the mortgage quota of these banks to some extent.

Affected by the implementation of the centralized management policy of real estate loans and the increasing demand for mortgage loans, the amount of bank mortgage loans was once tight this year, especially in cities with rapid housing price increase in first-and second-tier cities. Since then, with the stability of housing prices in hot cities, the contradiction between credit supply and demand has also eased, and the supply of personal mortgage has gradually returned to normal.

A senior executive of Shenzhen Branch of a city commercial bank told CBN, "At present, what we know is that the mortgage quotas of many banks in Shenzhen have been moderately relaxed, but the situation of each bank is not the same."

Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of Yiju Research Institute, said that the relaxation of the bank mortgage loan market in some areas will objectively boost market transactions and market confidence. However, it should be noted that this relaxation is only a relaxation of reasonable demand, and all localities are still strictly controlling the market order and further curbing all kinds of real estate speculation.

During the interview, the reporter also found that only a few banks have slightly increased their lending speed, while the pace of most banks has not changed significantly. "We are still in an orderly queue. The approval period for the first set and the second set is 1 ~ 2 months, and the lending period is 4 ~ 6 months, which basically has not changed much. " The credit manager of a branch of China Bank said.

The credit manager of a branch of Bank of Communications also told the reporter that according to the current rhythm, there is no obvious relaxation. The approval is one and a half months, and the loan is about four months. "To tell the truth, it's good not to be slow."

However, another point of view mentioned that it will be faster after 65438+February, mainly considering that banks will issue new mortgage quotas at the end of each year or the beginning of each year, and the mortgage queue may be eased.

Mortgage interest rates have also fallen.

In addition to changes in the pace of mortgage issuance, mortgage interest rates in some cities have also been adjusted.

According to the latest report released by RealData, in June of 5438+00, the interest rate of mainstream first home loan and second home loan in 90 cities it monitored was 5.73% and 5.99%, both of which were down 1 basis point from last month. This is the first month-on-month decline in mortgage interest rates during the year. Some analysts said that this represents an improvement in the credit environment.

According to statistics, in June, 5438+ 10, the mortgage interest rates of 20 out of 90 cities were lowered, among which the first home loan interest rate of 14 city was lowered, the second home loan interest rate of 14 city was lowered, and the first and second home loan interest rates of 9 overlapping cities were lowered. Downgraded cities include Pearl River Delta cities such as Shenzhen, Guangzhou and Zhongshan, and Yangtze River Delta cities such as Wuxi and Huzhou. Except Guangzhou and Shenzhen, most of them are third-and fourth-tier cities.

RealData reported that at the third quarter meeting at the end of September, the central bank set the tone of "maintaining the healthy development of the real estate market and safeguarding the legitimate rights and interests of housing consumers" for the real estate market. On June 5438+ 10, some city banks lowered the mortgage interest rate as a concrete practice of "two maintenance", and the credit environment of the housing market improved.

In the eyes of many people in the industry, the central bank and other relevant departments released positive signals many times at the end of September, which is one of the main reasons for the signs of loosening of mortgage loans in some cities. For example, at the end of September, the central bank made it clear at the third quarter regular meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee 202 1 that it was necessary to maintain the healthy development of the real estate market and safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of housing consumers.

Subsequently, the central bank and the China Banking Regulatory Commission jointly held a forum on real estate finance, re-emphasizing that financial institutions should maintain the stable and healthy development of the real estate market and the legitimate rights and interests of housing consumers in accordance with the principles of rule of law and marketization, and cooperate with relevant departments and local governments.

In this context, some analysts said that it is expected that housing credit will return to "stable and orderly" in the fourth quarter, and the lending cycle may be shortened. At the same time, the marginal improvement of the credit environment is also conducive to the expected improvement of the market, driving the just-needed groups to enter the market and starting the house exchange chain, which is conducive to the stable and healthy development of the market.

Yan Yuejin also said that considering the recent cooling of housing prices and the contradiction between overheating and supercooling, the investment and operation of mortgage loans will tend to be normal. In other words, with the adjustment of the real estate market cycle, the pressure of tight mortgage in the fourth quarter will be eased.

This has been reflected in the data. According to the latest data released by the central bank, RMB loans increased by 826.2 billion yuan in June 5438+ 10, an increase of136.4 billion yuan year-on-year, exceeding market expectations. In terms of sub-items, residents' medium and long-term loans (mainly mortgages) increased by 654.38+062 billion yuan year-on-year, breaking the situation of continuous year-on-year increase in the past five months.

At the same time, the central bank also listed personal housing loan data. According to the data, at the end of 10, the balance of personal housing loans of banking financial institutions was 37.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 34810.3 billion yuan in that month, an increase of10/0.3 billion yuan compared with September.

"Since September, the policy has loosened the real estate credit for many times. In hindsight, the rectification of residential mortgage is the most obvious. Observing its trend line, the downward trajectory since May has been interrupted. " Xie Yunliang, chief macro analyst of Cinda Securities, said that the data of June 5438+ 10 showed that the central bank was actively implementing the latest requirements of the Finance Committee, financial institutions were speeding up to meet the reasonable capital demand of real estate, and real estate loans were expected to stabilize, which would help the real estate industry to meet the out of the dark moment as soon as possible.

However, it is also mentioned that the overall regulation and control in the country is still tight, and there is an expectation of marginal relaxation in the regulation and control policies, but the possibility of substantial relaxation is very small.

This is the end of the introduction of loan market analysis and loan market analysis report. I wonder if you found the information you need from it?