Classic articles about financial currency

Currency war and RMB strategy (Part 2)

2006-03-07 13:29:45

Explain the formation mechanism of exchange rate and the formation mechanism of exchange rate in as plain language as possible The Monetary Strategy of the United States

First of all, I wanted to say that I didn’t say much because I had a whole day quarrel last month. Someone asked me if I had a more serious vest, so I came up with this. As for the quarrels, There is also the one related to bad men. I believe anyone with some intelligence can see it. So this vest doesn't quarrel, and that one is dedicated to quarreling. If you have anything to do, go to that one.

There are some nerds who memorize a lot of definitions when they talk about exchange rates, but that’s useless. Just like talking about price-to-earnings ratio in the stock market, they are all boring tricks. To put it bluntly, exchange rate is a game between big countries, and it is no different from a banker. Some people may say that with such a large trading volume of currency every day, how can it be manipulated? Do you think that you must rely on money to be the banker? That is the stupidest method. In the end, manipulation is just manipulating people's hearts. As long as someone can manipulate it, if you don't understand this in the financial market, it will be weird if you don't lose money.

The United States is a master of currency manipulation, but its currency manipulation still serves its overall interests. The biggest crisis currently facing the U.S. economy is bubble, and the U.S.'s current savings rate below 0 makes its economy extremely dangerous. To a certain extent, the U.S. stock market has already reached its peak. Like Zhuanggu, the key now is not to allow capital to escape in large numbers, otherwise it will continue to collapse and dive. Due to the extremely rapid decline in 2000, most hot money was unable to effectively leave the market, so large-scale capital flight has not yet occurred. The current large-scale rebound is creating an opportunity for capital to flee. Once the rebound is in place, the expected large-scale capital flight will truly occur.

In order to avoid the above situation, the only feasible currency strategy for the United States is to depreciate the currency to a corresponding position before the big rebound is in place. This will prevent U.S. dollar capital from fleeing at a higher exchange rate after cashing out. , to a certain extent, it adds a trap for U.S. dollar capital at the monetary level, so that the determination and intensity of the cashed out U.S. dollar capital to escape will be greatly reduced. This is the only non-war feasible way for the United States to prevent the collapse of the U.S. economy, the big stock market.

But the only catch to this approach is that if there is a currency with a huge capacity close to the US dollar, all the wishful thinking of the US dollar depreciation will be defeated, and the RMB happens to be such a currency. The peg between the RMB and the U.S. dollar provides a smooth escape channel after U.S. dollar assets are liquidated. The biggest advantage of the RMB economy over the US dollar economy is that bubbles are extremely low and the savings rate is extremely high, which is a fatal threat to the US economy. As long as the RMB strategy is adhered to and the pool is dug well, the U.S. dollar depreciation strategy will be completely shattered. Once this strategy is shattered, the U.S. economy will face the greatest impact. This is also the prediction in a previous post of the 2019 90-year major cycle world economic crisis. Based on the reality, a correct RMB strategy will accelerate and deepen this process.

Use the most popular language to explain to unlearned leftists the relationship between monetary growth and economic growth and the criminal background of the U.S. dollar

For ordinary people, they probably know it very well. How did the RMB come from? It's very simple. It was printed, not grown or produced in other ways. It's just that for RMB, there is only one legally recognized printing place. If anyone has nothing to do and goes to print it, everyone should know what to expect. Of course, printing RMB is different from others, and there must be a standard. If it were printed like gold dollar coupons, everyone would have to use a big sack to hold money to buy rice, so here we might as well talk about the printing standards.

Roughly speaking, the currency value can be regarded as the total amount of an economy divided by the total currency amount, which means that the currency value represents the economic amount of a unit currency. So for a normal closed economic system, in order to maintain the stability of the currency value, currency growth must be equivalent to economic growth, so that the currency value can remain stable. This is something that anyone at the elementary school level can know from the proportional relationship defined above. In other words, printing money must be based on economic growth. Once this standard is deviated, everything will be messed up.

However, there is actually no closed economic system. Once there is communication between two or more economic systems, there will inevitably be problems with the currency values ??of different currencies. Most people usually talk about the latter, such as how much the RMB is compared to the US dollar. , this kind of currency value is generated in the exchange of two different economic systems, and it is essentially different from the currency value generated in the previous single system. However, most people are often confused by common sense and confuse the two.

Since there are different economies, there are different money-printing centers, and these economies are connected. If one money-printing center makes a mistake and exceeds its economic growth, then Since this kind of money is recognized by everyone, it is the so-called world currency, so in the latter sense of currency value, it can be realized, and this means that this realization is based on the exploitation of the interests of other economies. . The U.S. dollar is such a currency. Since the U.S. dollar is a quasi-world currency, it is okay to print it as much as possible. The excess will be borne by all countries in the world. This is a huge secret of the U.S. economic prosperity, but the current problem is that these too many The number of U.S. dollars printed has exceeded the capacity of people around the world, and the U.S. dollar is just a beautiful bubble.

Modern society is a global capitalist society, and monetization is its most important aspect. The invisible plunder through currency is a super version of the tangible plunder of previous colonization. To put it bluntly, the U.S. dollar is an ideological blood pump and material base. But for the unlearned leftists, they have no idea how they are being exploited by the United States. In fact, as long as the U.S. dollar exists on this earth as a quasi-world currency, anyone who is not a member of the U.S. dollar system will be exploited by the United States. This is true global slavery.

Starting with Greenspan’s sudden stance on the yuan and the huge U.S. deficit

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said on Tuesday that China The central bank's buying of dollars to prevent the yuan from appreciating could create inflationary problems for China in the long term. There is also a corresponding news that the US fiscal year 2003 budget shows that the government deficit will reach 450 billion US dollars, 50% higher than previously estimated. These two seemingly unrelated pieces of news are actually closely related.

Of course, Ge Laozi is not Ge Laozi, but a famous person, the idol of countless economic people, but in my eyes, he is just mediocre. Thanks to Mr. Green's continuous mistakes since 1998, the U.S. economy has finally reached the point where it is today. I hope that if this man continues to make mistakes, China will be lucky. But this man’s remarks about the RMB were not a random move. They were part of the global chorus of RMB appreciation. As for being so alarmed that this person came forward, the main reason is that they know very well how bad the U.S. economy is. What does a $450 billion deficit mean? Moreover, the deficit will inevitably continue to increase with inertia next year, preparing more ammunition for the complete bursting of the American bubble. Of course, this crisis can be passed on if other currencies appreciate together. But in this era, no one is stupider than anyone else. Is it possible that the whole world will be blamed for the mess caused by the United States? Whoever carries it is just stupid.

It has been more than 10 years since the Japanese bubble burst, and it is still dying. The advantage of Japan over the United States is that its savings rate has always been very high, while the United States is below 0. I don’t want to think about what the spectacle will be like once this bubble bursts, and there’s no need to think about it, it will definitely be spectacular. At present, in addition to the original stock market and the virtual economy, what is currently gathering energy for this collapse will also include the bond market and the real estate market. Needless to say, other related things.

The inevitable and historical significance of the collapse of the U.S. economy has been made very clear in this female sneeze and sneeze vest, which is the final end of the 250 million economic level. After the big break, it will be established, and then It is the beginning of the 1.25 billion economic level, and this is a new era.

Explain in the most popular language: What are the Japanese most afraid of right now?

Explain in the most popular language: What are the Japanese people most afraid of right now? In a word, the RMB and the US dollar are firmly linked. I have said many times in previous articles that the Japanese yen’s ultimate fate will be its demise, and a specific time was given: around 2025. The title of the post is "In 2025, Japan must face a choice: be a state in the United States or a province in China." The firm link between the RMB and the U.S. dollar will make the Japanese economy even worse 10 years after the bubble burst.

The Japanese know this better than anyone else, so in the global chorus of RMB appreciation, the Japanese were the first to start and the hardest working.

In the end, in order to decouple the RMB from the U.S. dollar, the Japanese can have many methods. But the simplest thing is to feed the Chinese people with ecstasy soup, and then the Chinese people will release the RMB themselves. It has been said many times before that under the current objective situation where the US dollar is a quasi-world currency, the liberalization of the RMB and the decoupling of the US dollar are the same thing. But the cunning Japanese will definitely not actively clamor for the liberalization of the renminbi. This purpose is too obvious. Instead, they will clamor for something equivalent, which is the decoupling of the renminbi and the U.S. dollar. In this way, Chen Cang can be used secretly. The Japanese are more familiar with the Three Kingdoms than the average Chinese, and they have many tricks.

In order to achieve this goal, the Japanese can send their agents everywhere to promote that the renminbi is pegged to the U.S. dollar, which will cause a large amount of international liquid capital to flow into China like in 1997, and then there will be a crisis in 1997. Lies like that. However, globalization is the globalization of capital, and the flow of capital is extremely normal. But one thing neither the Japanese nor the Americans are willing to tell everyone is that the accumulation of capital is the ultimate destination of this capital flow. This is the secret of the economic development of Japan and the United States, and of course this cannot be shared with others.

The simplest thing is that no matter how capital flows, there must be a place where it accumulates the most, and now, this place is the United States. In other words, the development of the U.S. economy is fundamentally due to the fact that the United States is the country with the largest accumulation and precipitation of capital. There is only one way for China to ultimately defeat the United States, which is to replace the United States as the country with the largest capital accumulation and precipitation. This is the core driving force for change in the world economic pattern. It is probably not difficult to understand that accumulation and precipitation are first based on flow. Once this accumulation and precipitation of capital is finally formed, Japan will become China's first economic satellite, and things will be easier to handle thereafter. And this is the most fundamental reason why Japanese people can't sleep.

Preventing China from eventually replacing the United States as the largest country in capital accumulation and precipitation is the most fundamental reason for the current chorus of RMB appreciation. It is not difficult to see this from the busy work of the Japanese, Americans, etc. Trends put tremendous pressure on them. What the enemy fears most is, of course, what we insist on doing. The more we persist, the more the enemy fears. Isn’t this a simple truth?

Stabilizing the exchange rate will make it possible and practical for China’s poorest 100 million households to become households worth 100,000 yuan.

Today’s old post by this old lady, "Long-term stabilization of the RMB exchange rate, in "In a short period of time, all the poorest 100 million households in China will become households with 100,000 yuan" was mentioned. At that time, the actual possibility and practical significance of stabilizing the exchange rate and turning China's 100 million poorest households into households with 100,000 yuan were not explained in detail. , add something here.

The so-called appreciation of the RMB is actually a virtual property to a certain extent and a relative concept. Since real economies are not completely barrier-free, it is always too nerdy to measure currency value in terms of specific commodities. Currency value can actually be regarded as the total amount of an economy divided by the total currency amount. In other words, currency value represents the economic amount of unit currency. Obviously, this is very crude stuff, but it actually has a lot to do with it. In a normal closed economic system, monetary growth must be equal to economic growth, so the ratio does not move. However, there is actually no closed economic system. Once two or more economic systems communicate, there will inevitably be currency value fluctuations.

Enough with the theoretical stuff, let’s talk about the current RMB issue. The so-called RMB appreciation means that the economic volume represented by the RMB unit is larger than that of the U.S. dollar. There is a way to deal with it, which is to artificially increase the currency so that the economic volume represented by the RMB unit is reduced, thereby keeping the U.S. dollar unchanged. This offsets the appreciation pressure of the RMB, and there are more RMB. As for the extra RMB, my suggestion is to distribute it to the 100 million poorest families in China so that they can become households with RMB 100,000. The essence of this method is to narrow the gap between the rich and the poor, which means robbing the rich and giving to the poor.

It is very simple. When the total economic volume remains unchanged, before there is an extra RMB, the wealth represented by a person with 100 million assets is obviously different from what it represents after an extra RMB. This is probably not difficult to understand. For the poor, their wealth has increased.

Since the total amount of economic wealth remains unchanged, wealth flows from the rich to the poor, and the richer the wealth, the more it is distributed. However, since the ratio of personal wealth to the total economic output is extremely small, the corresponding proportion divided is actually very small. And since the value of the RMB remains unchanged relative to the US dollar, this wealth remains unchanged, and the poor have become richer regardless of whether they are relative to the US dollar or RMB.

The problem of wealth differentiation in China's economic development is becoming increasingly serious. This time the pressure of RMB appreciation can solve this problem at the lowest cost. Once all the poorest 100 million households in China become households with 100,000 yuan, , it will give great impetus to consumption and the economy, and it will also be good for the business of the rich. In the end, everyone will be happy.

Looking at the possibility and necessity of creating an economic model with Chinese characteristics from the boom of the SMS economy

To put it bluntly, the economy is a kind of game. The game has different ways of playing, and different games are played in different places. Depending on their popularity, the corresponding economic models may also be different. In economic competition, model competition is the most important. Whoever is the maker of the popular model will gain the greatest benefits.

The economy is not always an American-style economy, and the profit models of the economies of various countries are not necessarily the same. For example, the simplest one, text messaging was not popular in the United States or Europe, but it was the first to succeed in China. This is a good example. The reason why this situation occurs is nothing more than a comprehensive result of culture, economic development level, etc. First of all, text messages are more suitable for Chinese people's personalities, for example: they are more hypocritical, want to suffer shame, are a bit lazy, copy when they can, like a unified expression, etc.; secondly, text messages are relatively stupid, as long as the brain The cells are not dead, and there are one or two fingers left in ten, so you can basically do it; the entry price for participating in the end is relatively low, usually only 10 cents per session, and the Chinese people have the habit of joining in the fun, and mahjong has become a national quintessence. Understand this truth, most people can't accept being seen as too OUT, so they get together to fool around.

There is a group of so-called economists who always sanctify the economy. In fact, the economics is no different from playing mahjong, that is, it is a game. If something is sanctified, idols will inevitably appear, such as Economically, they will idolize the American model, which is a reflection of lack of water in the brain. Just like mahjong will not become the national quintessence of the United States, most Chinese people do not like rugby. Many specific economic models will inevitably reflect the country's special characteristics. As to how far this particularity can be extended, this is a practical question and has nothing to do with theory. Therefore, anyone who talks about divine laws is just a joke.

The possibility and necessity of creating an economic model with Chinese characteristics is actually a practical issue. The key is to dare to break all sanctification and idolization. The American economy is just a big American game. What a miracle. There was a time when some turtles were wandering around with some American and European versions of games, just like some hicks were wandering around with some hole-version and Tao-version games. Games are related to time and space. Without this, it is better to rest for now. Bar.

Large-scale investment in the national sense must not be pan-commercial or pan-political, but it must be pan-strategic

There have been a lot of quarrels about the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway recently, but they can’t be summarized. There are two: pan-commercialization or pan-politicization, which happens to ignore the most important pan-strategicization. I believe that large-scale investment in the national sense must not be pan-commercial or pan-politicized, but it must be pan-strategic.

From a pan-commercial perspective, of course, things like the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway are just investments. As long as there are commercial benefits, it doesn’t matter. Without business, everything is meaningless; from a pan-political perspective From a cultural perspective, the key is political correctness. For example, you cannot take advantage of the Japanese, or as long as you are politically correct, you can spend money carelessly. Both ideas are boring. First of all, the country is not a commercial institution. If everything is based on profit, then the country does not matter. Secondly, political factors are often the most unreliable. The situation is constantly changing. It would be too childish for a large investment to be based solely on politics.

Some people may say that nothing can be general, not even general to show its thoroughness, but this kind of statement is just a game, and not being general is what makes me general. Isn't this Very clear? I am not interested at all and clearly advocate pan-strategy, but the premise is large-scale investment in the national sense, not trivial things.

The so-called pan-strategicization means that large-scale investments in the national sense must be based on a large international strategic overall concept. Without this, everything is nonsense. From this perspective, I oppose the construction of the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway, and express deep doubts about the current overall international strategic concept. In addition, from the perspective of the game between countries, even if you want to invest in this project, it should be linked to the current RMB strategy. This is like a good topic, and it can definitely play a good role in the game between countries. If it were purely regarded as a commercial or political activity, wouldn't it be a bit boring and a waste of resources? In inter-country games, topics are the biggest resource.

As for some people messing around with operations, it’s even more boring. The operation is related to the perspective. The operation depends on the perspective. The operation is secondary, the perspective is the key. There is no fixed so-called "how" and "how to do it", it is all related to the perspective. At the national level, it is related to pan-strategy. A large international strategic overall concept is the key.