After "hoarding grain", many countries began to "grab coal"! Coal prices continue to rise, mainly affected by three aspects.

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The outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has intensified the fluctuation of the global energy market, and the prices of crude oil, coal and natural gas fluctuated greatly.

Although the price of crude oil fell back after approaching an all-time high in March, it still hovered above 100 USD/barrel. Recently, with the arrival of summer and the increase of demand, oil prices have risen again.

Natural gas supply is in short supply, and Europe is highly dependent on foreign energy. The import dependence of oil, natural gas and coal are 72.30%, 59.6 1% and 4 1. 13% respectively. Russia is a major energy importer in Europe, especially its dependence on Russian natural gas is very high. About 40% of natural gas in Europe comes from Russia.

Compared with oil and coal, it is more difficult to transport and store natural gas, which requires not only dedicated LNG carriers, but also dedicated LNG receiving stations. Therefore, when Europe is ready to greatly reduce its dependence on Russian natural gas, it is necessary to look for alternatives, and then the market begins to target coal.

First of all, many countries began to "grab coal"

We already know that with the change of grain supply and demand pattern and the continuous tension between supply and demand, many countries are in a high mood of grain protectionism and begin to increase grain reserves.

On the other hand, in addition to "hoarding grain", the demand for coal in the global market has surged, and many countries have begun to "grab coal".

First of all, with the arrival of hot summer, the peak of electricity consumption is coming.

For example, last year, due to weather changes and other factors, the supply of new energy power generation was insufficient, and the market had to turn to natural gas and coal.

However, extreme weather this year is still an uncertain factor. Therefore, in order to ensure sufficient electricity consumption, countries around the world are increasingly dependent on coal and natural gas.

Coal-electricity and gas-electricity can replace each other, but the cost advantage of coal-electricity is remarkable, so many countries begin to "grab coal".

Secondly, the demand for alternative coal has surged.

In order to get rid of dependence on Russian natural gas, Europe suspended the coal phase-out plan one after another, and the European Union decided to ban Russian coal imports from August 10.

This means that Europe should reserve enough coal before this, so Europe began to import a large number of international coal. According to relevant calculations, the coal gap in Europe will exceed 200 million tons.

Third, the impact of extreme weather continues.

For example, India, the world's second largest coal consumer, suffered from ultra-high temperature weather, which led to the doubling of power demand since April this year and triggered the country's worst power crisis in more than six years. The country's largest coal company also announced last month that it would import coal.

Second, the soaring coal price has three major impacts.

As a result, under the influence of many factors, international coal prices have soared.

By the end of May this year, the price of thermal coal in ARA (Amsterdam, Rotterdam and Antwerp) in three major European ports reached 320.00 US dollars/ton, compared with 69.25 US dollars/ton at the end of last year, an increase of 362%.

The benchmark price in the Asia-Pacific region-the price of thermal coal in Newcastle Port, Australia, also reached US$ 436/ton, up 343% from the end of last year.

The price index of thermal coal in Richards Port, South Africa is 336 USD/ton, which is 24 1% higher than the end of last year.

The coal price in central Appalachia in the United States reached 136 USD/ton, exceeding the highest point since 13.

With the global coal price soaring, it will bring three major impacts:

First of all, the global power supply is tight and electricity prices are rising.

The rise in coal prices first affects the power supply. For example, in Japan, electricity supply was short in March. The government calls on the whole people to save electricity and watch less TV, while 70% of the power grid in the United States is in a state of high load operation.

The tight power supply will inevitably push up the electricity price.

Last year, European electricity prices rose sharply, and this year is still going on.

For example, in the first quarter of this year, the household electricity bill in Italy increased by 65,438+0,365,438+0%, and the electricity price in Spain in February also increased by more than 20 times compared with the same period last year. Many families in Germany say that they will soon be unable to afford electricity.

But obviously, this situation is getting worse, because with the arrival of summer, the temperature rises rapidly, and a new round of electricity consumption peak is coming.

The second impact is the rising cost of coal downstream enterprises.

Besides power generation and heating, coal is also an important raw material for many industrial products, such as cement, steel and fertilizer.

With the increase of coal prices last year, the production costs of these enterprises have gone up, and will continue to be under pressure this year.

Among them, chemical fertilizer has a great influence on agriculture.

As we all know, the global fertilizer market has become extremely fragile in the case of limited supply from Russia, a big fertilizer exporter. At this time, with the continuous rise of coal and natural gas prices, the production cost of chemical fertilizer is further aggravated, and it is expected that the price of chemical fertilizer will remain easy to rise and difficult to fall in the future.

Finally, talk about the impact on China.

As we all know, China is a big coal consumer and the largest coal importer in the world. Last year, China imported 323 million tons of coal and lignite. With the rising international coal price, it also has a certain impact on China.

First of all, as the international coal price continues to rise, it will form a downward trend with domestic prices and curb import demand.

For example, the tax-included cost of Indonesian coal transported to Guangzhou Port is about 2262 yuan/ton, while the cost of Qinhuangdao sewage coal transported to Guangzhou Port is 124 1 yuan/ton, and the difference between them is as high as 1000 yuan/ton.

Affected by this, the national coal import volume decreased 12.7% in May. It is expected that if the spread continues to widen, imports will further decline.

Secondly, with the rise of international coal prices, it has formed a certain support for the domestic coal market.

In particular, the proportion of imported coal in coastal provinces has been relatively high. In the case of shrinking imports, the coastal market may maintain a tight supply and demand situation.

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