Will "high-rise" houses turn into "slums" in 20-30 years? Expert: No.

It is undeniable that not only the office buildings in cities are designed higher and higher, but also the houses where ordinary people live are built higher and higher, not only in big cities, but also in small counties. Professionally, the floor area ratio of housing is getting higher and higher. In the past, only 1-2 square meters of houses could be built on a square meter of land, but now it may be built to 8 square meters, 10 square meters or more. The residence has experienced the evolution from "ground" to "sky".

As far as the high-rise residence itself is concerned, its advantages and disadvantages are relatively clear. Advantages are broad vision, panoramic view of the city, and advantages in ventilation and lighting. The shortcomings are also obvious. Fire is a troublesome thing. According to the existing rescue conditions, it is almost difficult to rescue a tall building with more than 20 floors (47 meters), and even the fire ladder is almost out of reach. For people who are afraid of heights, tall buildings are even more difficult to cross. Because there is generally no protective net at the top, there are hidden dangers to the safety of children. If there is a power outage, it is also a big problem for people to travel. Even young office workers often wait for the elevator. Of course, these factors depend on everyone's needs and people have different opinions. The focus of this article is not here. Mainly: Will high-priced "high-rise buildings" become "slums" in 20-30 years? There is a saying in the industry that "it's not impossible." There are three main reasons:

1. cannot be disassembled. A landlord once asked such a question in a well-known forum, "In another 30-40 years, high-rise residential buildings will be demolished. Can businessmen still make money? " This question is worth pondering. Imagine that many of our 20-year-old and 20-year-old houses are dilapidated. It stands to reason that it should be demolished and resettled after 30-40 years. If the house with several floors is ok, after all, we can get construction funds and profits by increasing the floor area ratio and building higher houses, and the demolition is feasible. However, if a high-rise residential building with high density and dozens of floors needs to be demolished, who can afford it? Do you want to tear down a 30-40-story high-rise building and build an 80- 100-story residential building to make a profit? Obviously, businessmen won't do anything that doesn't make money, and the government can't subsidize huge funds for demolition and construction.

2. Maintenance is a problem. The longer the time, the older the equipment and facilities, and the higher the maintenance difficulty and cost. It used to be a headache for the old community we built. Because there is no maintenance fund, we can only pay for the maintenance through the residents of the community. But how easy is it to really pay alimony together? For example, maintenance elevators, low-level residents do not want to pay or pay less, and high-level residents do not want to pay more. If they can't reach an agreement, who dares to live in the elevator?

This is especially true for high-rise residential buildings. Although most newly-built houses have maintenance funds, with the passage of time, the maintenance cost of high-rise houses is getting higher and higher. In the long run, the maintenance funds paid when buying a house are simply not enough to support long-term maintenance. There is no such example. There is a house with dozens of floors in Hong Kong, and there is no elevator running. How does it feel to climb dozens of floors up and down every day? Now we can't imagine.

3. Have high-rise residential buildings in Europe and America become "poor" caves? To tell the truth, the population density in Europe and America is low, and high-rise residential buildings are not common, most of which are low-rise residential buildings. If you can refer to it, it is a high-density high-rise apartment. Most poor people live in such tall buildings, but in the eyes of most rich people, such houses are inhuman. Therefore, most people with financial conditions live in so-called "houses". There are similar situations not only in Europe and America, but also in Hong Kong, because the maintenance cost of high-rise residential buildings is generally high, and the property is unwilling to take over. As long as people with economic strength will move to other places one after another, leaving middle and bottom residents behind.

Zhu Guozhong of Guanghua School of Management, Peking University has done such a study. He simulated the dynamic behavior of buyers and developers through a large number of data, combined with the influence of housing prices, supply, housing age, urban expansion and other factors. He speculated that there will be a large area of slums in China in the future, mainly concentrated in high-rise residential buildings under construction.

The floor is so high, why do people still like to buy it?

This phenomenon does exist in the market. From the perspective of housing, most people like to live in big villas, but their economic conditions are limited. However, the biggest value-added in these years is not villas, but high-rise residential buildings, especially just-needed residential quarters. People choose high-rise residential buildings for three reasons:

First, the total price of high-rise residential buildings is low and the audience is large. This is relative to the villa in the same area. Generally speaking, a villa of 200 square meters needs 8 million yuan, while a high-rise residence of 100 square meters only needs 2.5 million yuan. This gap of 5.5 million will naturally screen out most customers with housing needs. If you want to change hands in the future, it is natural that you just need a lot and it is easier to sell.

Second, high-rise residential buildings are often more value-added than luxury houses. For example, a set of 2 million high-rise residential buildings has appreciated by 50%, and the total price is still only 3 million. However, if the 6 million villas appreciate by 50%, the total price will reach 9 million, with a net increase of 3 million. Obviously not easy, maybe only 30%. In terms of capital efficiency, if you have 6 million investment properties, you may be more willing to buy 3 sets of 2 million high-rise residential buildings.

I can't see anything in 20-30 years. The rapid development of real estate is about 20 years, and most of us bought high-rise commercial housing in the recent 10 year. Therefore, both the facade and the internal facilities of the house are relatively new, with sufficient maintenance funds and good property management. That is to say, everything is running normally. Not only can you buy villas and houses without spending so much money, but you can also enjoy the quality facilities in the urban area. Why not?

Talking about 30 years from now, maybe we have thought too long. At present, we are taking a road that we have never taken before. As the saying goes, people who have no long-term worries will have near worries. In any case, if high-rise housing is an inevitable choice, in order to reduce possible troubles in the future, we should also make a long-term and feasible design on housing quality, later maintenance and renovation, fire safety and other issues, which cannot be the legacy of our future generations.