This week's trading strategy: the economic boom is picking up and paying attention to the growth depression.

//Market Highlights//

1 The China Banking Regulatory Commission and the Central

This week's trading strategy: the economic boom is picking up and paying attention to the growth depression.

//Market Highlights//

1 The China Banking Regulatory Commission and the Central Bank formulated the Measures for Risk Classification of Financial Assets of Commercial Banks, which was reviewed and adopted by the Bank of China Insurance Regulatory Commission 1 Committee on March 7, 2020. It is hereby promulgated and shall come into force as of July 1 day, 2023. The Measures divide financial assets into five categories according to the degree of risk, namely, normal category, concern category, sub-category, suspicious category and loss category, and the latter three categories are collectively referred to as non-performing assets.

2. According to the financial data released by the central bank in June of 5438+ 10, the balance of broad money (M2) was 273.8 1 trillion yuan at the end of June, up by 12.6% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.8 percentage points and 2.8 percentage points higher than the end of last month and the same period of last year, respectively, hitting a new high in the past seven years. On June 5,438+10, RMB loans increased by 4.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 922.7 billion yuan year-on-year, a record high. In June 2023, the scale of social financing increased by 5.98 trillion yuan, which was 654.38+0959 billion yuan less than the same period of the previous year.

3. The margin trading and securities lending business of the North Exchange will be officially launched on February 13, 2023. At that time, securities companies that have obtained the authority of margin trading of the North Exchange can accept the entrustment of investors and declare margin trading to the North Exchange. The list of stocks that can be used for margin financing and securities lending will be published through the column of "Information Disclosure-Margin Financing and Securities Lending Information" of the North Stock Exchange for the convenience of investors.

4. The State Press and Publication Administration released the approval information of domestic online games in February 2023, and 87 games were approved. Netease's Fantasy Westward Journey: Time and Space and Tencent's subsidiary Chess King are both listed.

5. According to the information released by China Wealth Management Network, the first batch of personal wealth management products was released, including seven products from three wealth management companies: ICBC, ABC and China Post, including four products from ICBC, one from ABC 1 and two from China Post. The four products of ICBC Wealth Management are all new products, and there is no share for the time being; Agricultural Bank of China Finance and China Post Finance both involve sub-shares, which are named "L shares". In the evening, the CSRC announced that it agreed to China Clearing to launch a unified inquiry platform for the share information of public offering fund accounts and the public trial operation of "Fund E Account". The "Fund E Account" APP has been put on the shelves of major mobile app stores. During the trial operation, investors can obtain the invitation code for registration and use through the fund manager who holds the fund.

6. The National Development and Reform Commission held a national video conference on price work to deploy the task in 2023. The meeting emphasized that in 2023, price authorities at all levels should focus on stabilizing prices, strengthen market supply and price stability, deepen price reform in key areas, standardize price and charging behaviors, and highlight problem-oriented, responsibility-oriented, speed-oriented, leading-oriented, detail-oriented, and style-oriented, so as to push price work to a new level and make greater contributions to high-quality development.

7. The Central Committee and the State Council issued the Outline of Building a Quality Power. By 2025, the overall quality level will be further improved, the brand influence of China will be steadily enhanced, the people's sense of quality acquisition and satisfaction will be significantly enhanced, the role of quality in promoting economic and social development will be more prominent, and the construction of a quality power will achieve phased results. The promotion mechanism and support system for brand cultivation, development and expansion have been improved, the level of brand building has been significantly improved, the social atmosphere in which enterprises strive for brands and the public trust brands has become stronger, and brand leaders with excellent quality and distinctive features have emerged constantly, forming a large number of China brands with excellent quality and obvious advantages.

//The plate matters//

artificial intelligence

ChatGPT has been popular recently, and the number of users has exceeded 1 100 million in just two months. At the same time, domestic internet companies have also expressed their views. Tencent said that it is promoting special research in related directions of ChatGPT and AIGC in an orderly manner; Xiaomi Group revealed that there are rich landing scenes in the field of ChatGPT, and the investment in human resources and resources in related fields will be increased in the future. JD.COM Group said that it has been advancing on ChatAI and AIGC tracks, but it is more focused on the toB industry, and there will be further breakthroughs in the near future, including the launch of the next generation products on this track; Ali version of ChatGPT has been in the internal testing stage. Up to now, almost all the head Internet giants including Baidu, Tencent, Ali, ByteDance and 360 have officially announced their participation in this "Artificial Intelligence Competition".

Brain machine

According to China ICT Institute, the inaugural meeting of the Brain-Computer Interface Industry Alliance was held in China ICT Institute on February 8th. The Brain-Computer Interface Industry Alliance was founded by China ICT Institute in conjunction with dozens of universities, scientific research institutions and enterprises in the field of brain-computer interface. In the next step, the Alliance will actively play the role of a bridge between the government and Industry-University-Research, provide supporting suggestions for the planning and layout of brain-computer interface, brain-computer interaction and brain-computer intelligence in China, strengthen cross-disciplinary and industry exchanges, promote technological innovation and application exploration, carry out standards and testing research, cultivate and construct industrial ecology, and better support China's economic, technological and social development.

digital economy

According to Huawei's official disclosure, the first press conference of Huawei's Year of the Rabbit was held on Wednesday, February 8. Organized by Huawei's data storage product line, the conference released a series of new products such as "Hyperconvergence+"strategy, Kunpeng Hyperconvergence, Blue Whale Application Mall, Hyperconvergence software and supporting tools. Hyperconvergence, abbreviated as HCI, means virtualization in converged devices, which is the IT infrastructure in the digital age.

On February 8, the Third Session of the 15th National People's Congress of Guiyang opened to listen to the work report of Guiyang Municipal People's Government in 2023. The report pointed out that in 2023, Guiyang will focus on new digital machines and accelerate the construction of the core area of the digital economy development innovation zone. We will further promote digital industrialization and industrial digitalization, and adhere to the application of "east calculation and west calculation" as the traction to build a national computing capacity guarantee base.

It was learned from the Information Office of the Ministry of Education that the Ministry of Education and the China National Commission for UNESCO will jointly hold the World Digital Education Conference in Beijing from February 13 to February 14. This congress is an important measure to implement the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China on promoting the digitalization of education.

//Individual stock events//

1. According to the disclosure of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on the evening of February 9, Berkshire Hathaway sold 4.235 million BYD H shares on February 3; The average selling price is HK$ 257.9 per share, and the cash is HK$ 65.438+009 million, which will reduce the proportion of shares holding BYD H shares to 654.38+065.438+0.87%. Berkshire Hathaway, which holds 14 BYD shares, has reduced its holdings of BYD H shares for the first time since August 24th, 2022, and its shareholding ratio has dropped from 19.92% on August 24th, 2022 to10/.87% today.

2. Kweichow Moutai announced that Maotai Group, the controlling shareholder of the company, increased its holdings of 148300 shares for the first time through centralized bidding transactions, accounting for 0.0118% of the company's total share capital; Maotai Technology Development Company increased its holding of 6,200 shares for the first time through centralized bidding transactions, accounting for 0.0005% of the company's total share capital. For the first time, the company increased its holdings by a total of 6,543,800+054,500 shares.

3. Minhe shares announced that in June 2023, the company sold 22,800,200 commercial chicken substitutes, down 4.37% year-on-year and up129.36% month-on-month; Sales revenue was 54,403,900 yuan, up 99.88% year-on-year and 336.88% quarter-on-quarter. The sales revenue of the company's commercial chicken substitutes increased year-on-year, mainly due to the end of the incubation period and the resumption of production, and the sales price of chickens rose this month.

4. Yuyuan Co., Ltd. announced that it plans to acquire 460 100% equity of Japanese project company Napier TMK 100% and 460 100% equity of Japanese project company GKM100%. The ultimate controlling shareholder behind Napier TMK and GK KM acquired this time is Fosun International, which constitutes a connected transaction. After the above two share transfers are completed, Yuyuan intends to continue to increase the capital of Japanese project company Napier TMK with 4.556 billion yen, mainly for the renovation and upgrading of Kiroro Ski Resort and Resort in Hokkaido, Japan. This transaction involves the above two share transfer matters and capital increase matters, with a total amount of 160 16 1 billion yen, which is about RMB 828 million at the current exchange rate.

At the same time, Yuyuan shares also disclosed the corporate bond issuance plan, and it is planned to issue corporate bonds with a term of no more than 6 billion yuan and no more than 7 years. Coupon rate will be determined according to the results of market inquiry. The purpose of this corporate bond offering includes, but is not limited to, adjusting the corporate debt structure, repaying the corporate debt and supplementing the working capital.

5. Tiancheng Automatic Control announced that in order to further expand the company's business scale, improve the company's supply capacity of seat products in Chuzhou and surrounding areas, reduce transportation costs, and further improve product sales and service quality in this area. The company plans to invest RMB 4,654,380+0,000 in the investment agreement of Chuzhou Economic and Technological Development Zone Management Committee to build an intelligent production base project with an annual output of 600,000 sets of new energy automobile seats.

6. Changan Automobile announced that in June 2023, Changan Automobile sold17180,000 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 38.03%; The sales volume of independent brands was 146300, down 35.28% year-on-year; The sales volume of autonomous passenger cars was 6.5438+0.247 million, down 265.438+0.45438+0% year-on-year; Overseas sales of independent brands 1.79 million, down 24.80% year-on-year. Self-owned brand new energy 65438+/kloc-0 sold 28 1 10,000 vehicles in October, up 106. 1 1% year-on-year.

7.SAIC disclosed the production and sales express in June 5438+ 10, 2023, and the automobile output in that month was 275,465,438+08, down 465,438+0.13% year-on-year; Car sales reached 238,023 vehicles, down 47.75% year-on-year. Among them, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in the month was 322 1, down 55.39% year-on-year; The export and overseas base sales volume was 76,604 vehicles, up 65,438+07.08% year-on-year.

8. According to Fang Jing Science and Technology Announcement, recently, the company received the Notice on the Key Special Project of "Smart Sensors" of the National Key R&D Plan in 2022 issued by the High-tech Research and Development Center of the Ministry of Science and Technology of China, and the project of "Advanced Packaging and Testing Platform for MEMS Sensor Chips" declared by the company as the lead undertaker was approved.

9. China Merchants Shekou announced that in June 2023, the contracted sales area of the company was 64. 1 1 10,000 square meters, down 9.14% year-on-year; The contracted sales amount reached 654.38+05.767 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.09%.

10, McGrady Technology announced that Mianyang Hao Hao New Energy Technology Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary, plans to sign a project investment agreement with the People's Government of Anzhou District, Mianyang City to build a smart factory project with an annual output of 9GW of high-efficiency single crystal batteries. The planned total investment is about18.62 million yuan, and the planned land area is 300 mu. A super factory integrating R&D, production and office will be built in Anzhou District, Mianyang City.

//The restricted shares are lifted//

Wind statistics show that this week (February1March-February17) * * the restricted shares of 37 companies were lifted one after another, and the market value of lifting the ban was 430.292 billion yuan according to the closing price of February 10.

Judging from the market value of lifting the ban, February 13 is the peak of lifting the ban, and the total market value of 20 companies lifting the ban is 30.382 billion yuan, accounting for 70. 1% of the scale of lifting the ban next week. According to the closing price in February 10, the top three market values of lifting the ban are: Daotong Technology (765,438+72 million yuan), Valin Iron and Steel (665,438+67 million yuan) and Jixiang Airlines (3,879 million yuan). From the perspective of individual stocks, the top three stocks are Valin Iron and Steel (1 1.9 1 100 million shares), Shengtun Mining (322 million shares) and Jixiang Airlines (248 million shares).

According to the types of shares released from the ban, the original shareholders are restricted to sell 65,438+02 shares, the private placement institutions are restricted to sell 65,438+065,438+0 shares, the original institutions are restricted to sell 6 shares, the equity incentive is restricted to sell 3 shares, the original shareholders are restricted to sell 2 shares, and the original shareholders are restricted to sell 2 shares.

//New stock calendar//

Wind statistics show that J will issue 5 new shares this week (February 13-February 17), including 2 in Shanghai, 2 in Shenzhen 1 and 2 in Beijing Stock Exchange. February 13, issued by Aoyi Pharmaceutical; February 14, released by Dolly Technology and Butterfly Industry. February 15, released by love energy gathering; February 17, Suqian Liansheng released. The cumulative number of these five new shares is about 654.38+39 billion shares, and it is estimated that the raised funds will be 3.755 billion yuan.

//Institutions look at the market outlook//

CITIC Securities: It is expected that the reconstruction will come to an end and continue to pay attention to the growth depression.

After the Spring Festival, the market economic growth expectation was revised upwards, the stimulus policy was revised downwards, the global liquidity expectation and investors' risk appetite were also revised briefly, and multiple expectations were revised * * *, which led to the temporary weakness of the market. However, the trend of market relay value growth and market value sinking has not changed, and the comprehensive repair of the market is still on the road.

In terms of allocation, it is suggested to continue to pay attention to the growth depression and improve the allocation priority of semiconductors and new ventures in emerging industries. In terms of specific varieties, it is suggested to continue to pay attention to small and medium-sized growth stocks with certain performance growth elasticity, which are relatively unpopular and begin to benefit from liquidity repair. These stocks are relatively more distributed in machinery, environmental protection, chemical industry and other fields, and are expected to benefit from the comprehensive repair of market diffusion.

At the same time, it is also suggested to pay attention to industries with large room for performance improvement in 2023, such as digital economy in science and technology, medical consumables and equipment in medicine, scenery storage in manufacturing, subdivided materials and equipment in mechanical and military fields, home appliances in real estate chain and other post-cycle categories.

In the short term, considering the frequent external disturbance factors and strong internal support, we suggest increasing the allocation priority of semiconductors and new ventures in emerging industries; In addition, innovative drugs may relay CXO to become a new track plate this year.

Industrial Securities: Two Clues of High Resilience and High Growth in the Medium Term

The staged market returns to the stock game environment, and the plate rotation accelerates. It is suggested to find the segmentation direction of high growth momentum, but at present, the stock price is still at a low level and the congestion degree is relatively low. The opportunities for Nuggets to make up for the low position are energy storage, media, military industry and electricity.

In the medium and long term, we will continue to follow the two clues of high elasticity and high growth rate. On the one hand, it focuses on the high elasticity direction where the current prosperity is still at a low level, but it is expected to reverse the predicament this year, and the valuation and positions are at a low level: new ventures, innovative drugs, semiconductors, consumer electronics, 5 G; On the other hand, for the growth sector whose current prosperity is at a high level and has been reflected at a high level, we should focus on the sub-sectors with sustained upward growth and reasonable valuation, and grasp the direction of high-growth sub-sectors and the alpha opportunities of individual stocks: wind power, photovoltaic and auto parts.

Everbright Securities: The credit data made a good start, and the theme market was in the ascendant.

On June 5438+ 10, new social financing was close to the market expectation, and RMB loan was the main contribution. Historically, because social integration is the leading indicator of economy, the rebound of social integration indicates that the economy will also improve in the future, which corresponds to the turning point of A-share performance.

Judging from the different A-share style indexes, in the credit rising cycle (the period when new medium-and long-term loans of enterprises increase year-on-year), the growth and consumption performance are the best, while the cycle and steady style performance are poor. In addition, companies with high valuation and partial growth perform better, while companies with low valuation and partial value perform poorly.

We continue to be optimistic about market performance, and the year-on-year repair of economic data will be the core driving force to support the market in the next stage. At present, China's economic prosperity continues to pick up, and the credit data in June of 5438+ 10 ushered in a "good start", which also strengthened market confidence and confirmed the recovery of economic prosperity. The year-on-year rebound of economy and profits will be the core driving force to support the next stage of the market. With the gradual verification of corporate profit recovery, the market will usher in a medium-term shock upward range.

In the short term, it is suggested to pay attention to industries whose prosperity is expected to rebound, and allocate consumer medicine in the medium and long term. In terms of theme investment, it is suggested to focus on stage computing power, data labeling, natural language processing, artificial intelligence-generated content and small-cap stocks that benefit from artificial intelligence themes.

//Predictability of major events//

WTTS (simulated trading)

Science and technology innovation board, Hong Kong Stock Connect, ETF and stock options are available.

Combination analysis indicators are available, and roadshows are more convenient.

The performance appraisal is accurately settled, and the investment and research ability is clear at a glance.