Rugao property market theory

I think the future trend of the housing market will be relatively stable, and house prices will not change much, and may rise slightly or be flat. Because the changes in the property market involve many levels, it is unlikely that there will be major changes in a short time.

First of all, let's talk about why house prices won't rise too much. In the past two or ten years, house prices have gone up wildly, mainly because of the rapid economic development model. Some people made money through "real estate speculation" and completed the original accumulation of capital. But there are also a group of people who have brought great pressure to their lives because of buying a house. Most of this group are young people.

These young people are under the pressure of mortgage, so they can only work hard and even have no courage to take a vacation. They are afraid of getting married and even falling in love, because falling in love costs money, and getting married costs more. This also fully shows that high housing prices have had a significant negative impact on the marriage and childbearing situation in society. In order to change this trend, it is necessary to "suppress" housing prices.

House prices will not skyrocket again, except for social and economic reasons. The sustained "expansionary" development of the real estate economy is prone to economic bubbles and even serious economic crises. This is a matter of people's livelihood and definitely needs to be treated with caution. Before, there was no great control because of the demand of economic development, but now the economic development status quo is not so dependent on the real estate economy.

Secondly, talk about why house prices will only stabilize and will not fall sharply. The change of house price involves many people and industries, and it is also related to economic development.

If it drops suddenly or continuously, it will induce economic crisis and lead to social instability. In 2020 and 20021year, the relevant departments issued some policies, which really made the transaction volume of commercial housing drop significantly and the house price also dropped slightly. However, since 2022, relevant policies have been relaxed, and the bank's loan interest rate has also been lowered.

A friend of mine bought a house in our local county (in 2020). The average purchase price at that time was 7836 yuan/square meter. It's been more than a year now, with ups and downs in the middle and still increasing in value, about 8000 square meters. The house I bought myself has also appreciated, with a square meter rising by nearly four or five hundred.

The transaction volume of the house may be lower and lower in the future, because the population is limited and the housing can meet the living requirements. But in my opinion, house prices will not fall (and certainly not skyrocket), at least there will be no big changes in the next 10 year.