Since June, food prices have dropped, and the price of No.92 gasoline is also expected to drop. What about the prices of pigs and eggs?

May is over. Looking back at the changes of food price, pig price, oil price and egg price in this month, with the increase of wheat market in the new season, the high food price has started the price reduction model.

On May 16, the domestic prices of 92 # gasoline and other refined oil products were raised once, and the second increase in May will be ushered in on May 30th.

With the slow pace of price increase at the breeding end, the pork consumption at the terminal has improved, and the strong stimulation of reserve meat storage has been superimposed, the price of live pigs has continued to rise, and some areas have broken through the 8 yuan cost line.

The price of eggs is relatively stable, with a narrow adjustment between 4.6 and 5 yuan.

However, after June, the market will usher in the early warning of falling food prices, and the price of No.92 gasoline is also expected to be lowered. What will happen to the price of pigs and eggs? Let's have a look.

First, early warning of falling food prices.

This year, the grain price is unusually firm, and the industry is generally optimistic about the market price. Therefore, before the new wheat went on the market, the grain prices of wheat and corn had been running at a high level. At the highest, wheat rose to 1.7 yuan, and corn rose to 1.6 yuan. Even when new wheat is harvested, the price of old wheat remains above 1.6 yuan.

However, food prices should pay attention to the early warning of falling in June.

Let's start with the price of wheat. Wheat has not been listed on a large scale for the time being, and the wheat harvest has arrived in Zhumadian, Henan Province. There are still more than half a month before the large-scale listing. In other words, late June to early July is the key period for wheat prices to stand the test.

Although grassroots farmers are reluctant to sell this year, the sustained high international wheat prices have contributed to the rise in wheat prices.

However, until now, traders, flour enterprises and feed production enterprises have held a wait-and-see attitude towards new wheat, and their enthusiasm for purchasing and building positions is not high, which is very unfavorable to wheat prices.

More crucially, wheat planting in many areas is late this year, and the weather in many areas is not conducive to wheat growth recently. The quality of new wheat is worrying, and the quality of wheat may become another speculation point of wheat price change.

In June, if the purchasing enthusiasm of traders and flour enterprises remains unchanged, the price of wheat will drop from the current 1.6 yuan to the level of 1.45- 1.5 yuan.

In addition, the long-term bullish forecast of corn prices remains unchanged, but we also need to be alert to the price changes in June. Although the high price of new wheat has little influence on the price of corn, if the quantity of inferior wheat is too large, the influence on corn can not be ignored. After all, the main destination of inferior wheat is feed enterprises, which means that the greater the quantity of inferior wheat, the greater the impact on corn prices.

At present, with the recovery of local traffic, the centralized delivery of traders and the influence of new wheat, the price of corn is likely to decline in June, and will increase in July with the reduction of surplus grain at the grass-roots level.

Second, the price of No.92 and No.95 gasoline is expected to be lowered.

May 27th is the ninth working day of the domestic refined oil price adjustment cycle, and a new round of oil price adjustment will be conducted on May 30th. At the close of May 26th, the futures price of light crude oil for July delivery in the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude oil for July delivery in London rose by $3.76 and $3.37 respectively.

According to the current international oil price forecast, the new round of adjustment will probably increase by 345 yuan/ton, equivalent to 0.27-0.3 yuan/liter.

However, domestic refined oil prices in June are expected to be lowered for the second time in 2022. The specific logic is as follows:

1. When the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, the purchasing power will increase after the appreciation of the US dollar, which will lead to downward pressure on crude oil prices.

2. Oil prices in Europe and America hit record highs, and the average price of gasoline in the United States reached a record $4.593 per gallon. The rise in oil prices will form a negative feedback on gasoline demand.

3. Long-term economic pessimism may lead to negative feedback of crude oil demand.

In April and June, Opec+ member countries will gradually increase their oil production capacity, which will make up for the oil supply gap caused by the EU's ban on Russian oil imports.

Pig prices in March and June are expected to continue the gains in May.

Although the price of live pigs suffered a period of decline in early May, the price of live pigs ushered in a wave of rising prices in the middle and late May.

At present, pig prices in East China have risen to 7.8-8.4 yuan, Central China 7.7-8 yuan, South China 7.7-9.3 yuan, North China 7.6-8.2 yuan, Northeast China 7.6-7.9 yuan and Southwest China 7.4-8 yuan. In addition to the Northeast, pig prices in other regions have basically come to 8 yuan.

The favorable factors of pig price market in June are: 1, and consumption will gradually recover.

2. The supply of live pigs continues to be sluggish.

3. Farmers have a strong willingness to lower prices.

4. The impact of the decline in production capacity on the supply of live pigs in the second half of last year has gradually emerged.

5. As the Dragon Boat Festival approaches, slaughter enterprises stock up.

6, traffic recovery, the difficulty of transporting pigs and pork decreased.

The negative factor is only the impact of rising pork prices on terminal consumption.

On the whole, stimulated by favorable factors, the price of live pigs is expected to continue to rise in June.

Eggs are expected to resume rising in April and June.

Recently, the price of eggs has once again entered a stable and weak state. On May 28th, quotations in various places mainly fell, with Beijing dropping by 0. 1-0.12 yuan, Guangdong dropping by 0.08-0. 1 yuan, and the main producing areas generally dropping by about 0.1yuan, with the largest drop of 0.6544.

The price of eggs in producing areas has also generally dropped to around 4.44-4.6 yuan.

In June, the price of eggs is expected to rise again.

Although farmers' enthusiasm for shipping increases with the increase of temperature, the overall stock of laying hens is not high. After the price reduction of eggs, the mood of eliminating chickens at the terminal will be loosened, and the production capacity may be further reduced. In addition, there are not many stocks at all levels, and the terminal consumption will pick up after the egg price drops, which will help the egg price increase.