3 types of intuitive biases

Speaking and doing things based on intuition is more like instinct, while rational thinking and behavior require more deliberate effort.

Intuition is the System 1 thinking mentioned by Kalman in "Thinking Fast and Slow". System 1 is the intuitive system. It runs quickly, does not consume much brain power, and does not require conscious control. It can be called fast. think.

However, there are three biases in intuition:

Hindsight bias is the phenomenon of "already known", and another technique is hindsight bias.

As Watson said to Holmes: "Everything seems ordinary once explained."

When we understand the reasons, the development of things seems ordinary. Very reasonable.

We cannot look at the world without excluding existing knowledge. This is called the "curse of knowledge." Technical developers and authors often mistakenly assume that what they know is clear to others.

They know that others lack their own expertise and simply underestimate the extent to which their explanations will confuse others.

We cannot predict that common-sense intuitions are wrong, so we can easily trick ourselves into thinking we know more than we really do.

Understanding more about psychology can help us distinguish reality from illusion, reasonable prediction from hindsight, and true insight from false intuition.

People attribute more good things and successes to themselves and less attribute bad things and failures to themselves.

That is to say, good things are due to oneself, and failures are due to others.

The self-serving bias is most evident on some subjective, attractive dimensions, such as driving skills and sociability, and less obvious on less subjective, less necessary dimensions.

We overestimate the number of people who agree with us and find support for our position.

Many times, it’s not what we don’t know that gets us into trouble, but rather what we know is not what we think it is.

To be more rational, let yourself see the evidence, collect and present comparative data, and be able to recognize the facts more clearly.

That is, cognitive conceit.

We intuitively assume that the world is as we see it and remember it, assuming that others see it the same way we do.

If their views are clearly different from ours, we assume they are biased.

Part of wisdom is self-knowledge. Just like Confucius said: "Knowing is knowing, not knowing is not knowing, which is knowing."

——Read "Myers Intuitive Psychology"