Talking about the recovery of the real estate market

"It's shocking to smell the thunder and wake up the hibernating insects." The "sting" here refers to the small animals that hide in the ground after winter and don't drink or eat, while the ancients in China believed that whenever they are stung, the spring thunder in the sky will wake them up, which means that everything will be revived.

At this time, since the second half of 20021,the real estate industry, which has been completely cooled by multiple factors, has also heard bursts of spring thunder. However, this "spring thunder" is not to recall "real estate giants in the golden age", but to stabilize the declining market.

Nearly 50 cities in the property market "because of the city's policy"

For the real estate sector, this year's government work report mentioned "stabilizing land prices, stabilizing housing prices, stabilizing expectations, and promoting a virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry due to urban policies".

In fact, some cities have recently adjusted their real estate policies in different procedures. According to the incomplete statistics of China Housing Network, there are Guangzhou, Chongqing, Fuzhou, Foshan, Dongguan, Wenzhou, Zhengzhou, Kunming, Baoding, Changchun, Guiyang, Jinzhong, Nanchang, Zhumadian, Tangshan, Yulin, Heze, Ganzhou, Nantong, Beihai, Nanning, Xinxiang, Zhuzhou, Dazhou, Nanchong, Nanxun, Quzhou and Tianmen.

As the first provincial capital city to relax restrictions on loans and purchases this year, Zhengzhou has become a hot spot of public concern for a time. Zhengzhou requires financial institutions to increase personal housing mortgage loans and reduce housing loan interest rates. Greatly reduce the cost of buying a house and speed up the repair of the bottom of Zhengzhou market.

Not only that, seven days after it explicitly canceled the "housing loan recognition", it officially launched the "monetization resettlement work for large-scale shantytown renovation projects" to further activate more housing consumption demand.

In addition to Zhengzhou, Nanchang also adjusted relevant policies in the early stage. In February, Nanchang announced the full opening of cities and towns to settle down, achieving zero threshold for settlement. College degree or above, you can buy a house without moving your account, just provide the lease certificate and academic certificate.

Compared with Zhengzhou and Nanchang, more cities are making a fuss about the provident fund. By reducing the down payment, increasing the loan amount and lowering the mortgage interest rate, it will help the market recover. Many banks in Anhui, Heze, Ganzhou, Zhumadian, Nantong and other places lowered the down payment ratio of the first suite of commercial loans, with a minimum of 20%. Ningbo, Maanshan, Zhuzhou, Nanning and other cities have increased the maximum loan amount of housing provident fund, among which Ningbo has increased the maximum loan amount of housing provident fund from 600,000 yuan/household to 800,000 yuan/household. In addition, major banks in Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Hefei, Huizhou, Bengbu, Jinan and other cities have also lowered the interest rate of the first home loan.

In addition to the above contents, the forms of relaxation include "loan accumulation fund" and "housing subsidy". For example, the New Deal launched by Dazhou stipulates that anyone who uses provident fund loans to buy a house in the central city, after retaining 5% of the loan amount in his provident fund account, can apply for withdrawing the account balance to pay the down payment and re-execute the loan; Yulin, on the other hand, stipulates that within the urban planning area (Yuzhou District and Yudong New District), new citizens can buy the first set of family commercial housing, and each set can enjoy a housing subsidy of 6000- 10000 yuan. In addition, Jimo became the first restricted city in China, and Xiamen recently announced that off-island projects no longer emphasize the lottery.

From the perspective of urban energy level, this round of destocking is mainly in the second, third and fourth tier cities, and the second-tier cities are mostly destocking. Correspondingly, this kind of urban housing has a high inventory and a weak market. According to the data of Ke Rui, in 20021year, the cycle of the main urban area of Zhengzhou was 23 months, and the cycle of the suburban area was as long as 43 months. According to the report provided by RealData Zhengzhou Branch, the general inventory trading cycle in Zhengzhou takes 8.3 years to digest.

The situation in some third-and fourth-tier cities is also not optimistic. According to the inventory report of Ke Rui on June 5438+ 10/00, the period of commercial housing inventory in 66 third-and fourth-tier cities is as high as 2 1.09 months, which is gradually approaching the level during the epidemic in 2020, and it is still growing steadily, ranking first in different energy levels. Jinhua, Huizhou, Shantou, Quanzhou, Zhuhai, Lishui, Dongguan and other 32 cities have extended their decontamination cycles to more than 20 months. In the generalized inventory of 100 cities, the proportion of third-and fourth-tier cities has exceeded 50%, and the inventory risk is greater.

According to industry insiders, from the perspective of recent policies, the overall policy relaxation this year will be much greater than in previous years. Especially in some cities with great downward pressure on the market, high pressure on project delivery and high inventory risk, it is reasonable to introduce large-scale easing policies. However, this series of adjustments can not be completely regarded as policy relaxation, but as the embodiment of city policy and precise regulation.

Second-hand houses in some hot cities are picking up.

Since the beginning of the year, the sound of spring thunder over the second-hand housing market has been rumbling. According to the incomplete statistics of China Housing Network, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Hefei, Huizhou, Heze, Bengbu and other cities have successively lowered the interest rate of the second home loan. Among them, the interest rate of Huizhou second home loan is the lowest, which is 5.35%. This year, not only is the mortgage amount relatively abundant, but the pace of lending has also been further accelerated. According to the data of RealData, the average lending period of 103 key cities it monitored in February was 38 days, which was 12 days shorter than that of the previous month.

At the same time, Nanning, Beihai, Fuzhou, Jinzhong, Zhuzhou and other places will reduce the down payment ratio of housing provident fund loans for buying second homes from 50%-60% to 20%-40%. In addition, it is reported that Zhengzhou changed the second-hand housing differential tax from 20% to 1%.

Affected by favorable factors, the second-hand housing transactions in some hot cities have picked up, and the market is expected to show a staged trend of stopping falling and stabilizing. According to the data of RealData, after the Spring Festival, the transaction volume recovered faster than before, and the demand in the Yangtze River Delta was activated first. Three weeks after the festival, the average weekly transaction volume of second-hand houses in Shell 50 City increased by 1 1% compared with last year's 65438+February. In terms of regions, the release of demand in cities in the Yangtze River Delta accelerated, with transactions in cities such as Wuhu, Nantong, Jiaxing and Ningbo increasing by more than 20% in February.

From the price point of view, the price of second-hand housing stopped falling, and the cities in the Yangtze River Delta took the lead in turning up. In February, the second-hand housing price index of Shell 50 City was the same as that of 65438+ 10, ending the continuous downward trend since last August. In terms of regions, similar to the transaction performance, the transaction price of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration took the lead in stopping the decline, and the prices of first-tier cities rose slightly.

In fact, since the 20021the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee meeting put forward "supporting reasonable housing demand", high-level officials have voiced their voices intensively, emphasizing the importance of meeting reasonable housing demand. This round of policy relaxation began to play a leading role, but the main tone is still to stabilize the property market, and the market is not simply repeating the original development model. Relaxing the improved housing demand policy is a response to "supporting reasonable housing demand", which is conducive to releasing the improved housing demand and has positive significance for promoting the virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry.