Is the property market bubble a comfort provided by the government to those who cannot afford a house, or who have yet to buy a house?

China’s housing price woes are actually based on the poor economic situation. The lack of affordable housing and the ban on urban residents buying land to build houses on their own have given commercial housing, a financial commodity, a strong support for hard consumption. As a result, commercial housing prices are too high.

If it sounds difficult to understand, let me give you an analogy, a car

Ordinary people usually travel by bus, rent a car, take a taxi, or use a battery car or bicycle. Only rich people can buy their own cars. If I were a middle-class person with a little wealth, I might buy a cheaper car for tens of thousands of yuan. Adding in the cost of maintaining a car of 15,000 yuan a year, the cost in five years would be more than 30,000 yuan. , in general second- and third-tier cities, traveling is more convenient. If I feel that buying a car is not cost-effective and I take a taxi every day, it costs an average of 10 yuan per ride and I can take 3,000 taxi rides a year. In this way, for me, I am more selective.

But what if one day all taxis and buses are banned? If you want to take a car, you have to buy a car. What will be the consequences? The consequence will definitely be that the price of cars goes up, because you cannot travel without a car. Unless you leave for work an hour early, you can only buy a car. The price of the car cannot be adjusted by regulation. oh.

Our real estate market is based on the same principle.

There are two types of housing, the first is affordable housing; the second is commercial housing.

Affordable housing is a house built by the government using state land. It is generally divided into affordable housing, low-rent housing, public rental housing, shantytown housing, etc. The residents do not own the houses, and the housing prices are relatively cheap. The price of affordable housing is generally set by the country at six times the local per capita annual income. However, it cannot be resold. If it is sold, it can be sold back to the government at the original price. The purpose of the construction of affordable housing is to achieve the goal of housing for everyone, which is also a basic obligation of a normal government (to ensure the basic necessities of life for citizens).

Commercial housing is another concept. The owner of commercial housing has the ownership of the house and the ownership of the land (except in China, it is the land use right), and the wealth brought by the appreciation of private housing and private land It is also owned by individuals (the tax paid after generating wealth is called property tax). Therefore, commercial housing is a typical financial product (please note here why it is illegal to speculate on garlic and legal to speculate on houses. It is because of garlic. It is not a financial product, but commercial housing is a financial product) and is a very normal investment channel.

It is also worth noting that policies have led developers to form policy monopolies.

In foreign countries, in addition to buying commercial houses from real estate companies, you can also buy land from the government in your own name, and then the government will plan, design the external shape of the house, coordinate the planning, and build the house yourself. This is also the two- to three-story small villa house we often see in foreign movies. But China cannot do that. Chinese people can only buy houses from real estate companies, and urban residents cannot buy land directly from the government to build houses. Therefore, the current situation in which real estate companies have a monopoly on residential housing has formed.

Now that we have clarified the difference between commercial housing and affordable housing, let’s talk about the relationship between commercial housing and affordable housing.

I mentioned property tax just now. Yes, property tax is the key point connecting commercial housing and affordable housing.

In order to achieve the goal of having a place to live, the government must build affordable housing for the middle and lower class people (first give you a place to live, and then decide for yourself how much housing is needed) Whether you work hard to make money to buy commercial housing, or whether you make as much money as you want and spend as much money as you want, it’s up to you to decide.) So how will the government fund the construction of affordable housing? Of course it’s property tax!

So what is property tax? It can be understood that the owners of commercial housing pay part of the tax on the profits they receive from the increase in land value.

Paying property tax itself will not have any adverse impact on the owners of commercial houses, because the land value increases and the tax standards are met only when money is earned, so the owners of commercial houses will be very willing to pay taxes. Give it to the government, and after the government collects property taxes, it will have the funds to build affordable housing.

Therefore, in general countries, there is a natural relationship between affordable housing and commercial housing. The higher the price of commercial housing, the more complete the construction of affordable housing, and it is not only the construction of affordable housing that benefits, but also property taxes. It is also used for local security and education. Therefore, it is no exaggeration to say that reasonable collection of property taxes is related to the living environment of a city.

But this is a general situation. China's situation is special and it is not suitable for property tax, because the purpose of other countries' property tax is not to make the housing prices of commercial housing fall, but to make the housing prices of commercial housing rise, and then get the property tax. The part of the increase is used to subsidize affordable housing through taxes. However, China is currently trying to prevent housing prices from rising, so China has not yet met the prerequisites for levying a property tax.

The current situation and reasons for the formation of China’s real estate.

I just said that affordable housing and commercial housing have a natural relationship, but in China it is special. Different countries have different ratios of affordable housing and commercial housing. Some are 8:2, and some are 9:1. But there is a basic point, that is, there is the premise of affordable housing first, and then there is the market for commercial housing. But in China, it is On the contrary, the proportion of affordable housing is 1 and that of commercial housing is 9.

So why are there so few affordable housing in our country?

We should all remember that today’s post-80s generation, many of the houses where they lived with their parents when they were children were allocated by their work units. The houses in this category are affordable housing. When we were young, the proportion of affordable housing was 90%. But now they are basically gone. Why?

That starts in 1998!

After 1998, due to the impact of reform and opening up and development in China (here you can check Baidu Encyclopedia for details: laid-off workers), the laid-off crisis reached its peak, with high unemployment and low employment rate. At that time, the government thought The best way is to stop the construction of affordable housing, increase the construction of commercial housing, and then let the people who should buy affordable housing pay for commercial housing themselves. After the government takes the land transfer fee, it will invest in infrastructure construction and beautify the city. After that, start attracting investment. In the process of construction, many jobs will naturally be created. After the employment problem is alleviated and the employment rate is reported, surrounding industries (such as reinforced concrete) will develop. With more people employed, the retail business will be easier to do. The Chinese economy has had some breathing time. However, this will inevitably cause housing problems.

As the construction of affordable housing has stagnated, the rigid demand for commercial housing has become increasingly prominent, and commercial housing is also a financial product. If a financial product is given a strong rigid demand, the results will be very scary. As I said just now, commercial housing itself is a financial product. Different from fried mung beans and fried garlic, mung beans and garlic are people's livelihood food. Speculating on this thing is illegal and violates the "Anti-Monopoly Law". If you are caught, you will be jailed. However, commercial housing is inherently a financial product, and the role of financial products is to include investment purposes. Although real estate speculation is unreasonable, it is reasonable and legal. It just so happens that young people born in the 1980s have reached the age of starting a family and starting a business, and their demand for housing has become greater and greater. In addition, in recent years, the investment environment has deteriorated, the economic prospects are worrying, and a large amount of hot money has flowed into real estate. Therefore, housing prices have exploded.

Since 2006, China's manufacturing industry has been in comprehensive decline, causing a large number of factories to close down. A large amount of funds have withdrawn from the manufacturing industry and poured into the stock market in 2007. In 2008, the stock market crashed and funds flowed into real estate. This led to overall overheating of real estate, and housing prices immediately exploded.

So, the price of our commercial housing is high, based on the poor economic situation, the lack of affordable housing, and the ban on urban residents buying land to build their own houses, resulting in the price of commercial housing rising wantonly. The solution is to start dealing with it first-hand. The manufacturing industry carries out an economic stimulus plan, allowing hot real estate money to return to the manufacturing industry. The other hand begins to build affordable housing, striving to reduce the hard demand for housing in the next five years and gradually affect the real estate market; at the same time, learning Abroad, under the government's planning, people are allowed to purchase land to build houses, breaking the monopoly of developers. ,

I believe that in China’s future, as the demographic dividend slowly disappears, housing prices will drop to reasonable prices