Pork prices collapsed! Will the price of meat return to "before liberation" after being reduced by 1.3 yuan per kilogram? Corn, oil prices hit hard

# Oil Prices Or Welcome Three Consecutive Drops# Time flies, and the countdown to the Lunar New Year begins in the blink of an eye. January 21 this year is New Year’s Eve, and there are still one month and a few days left, but the pig market is also like a cold winter. Similarly, once it can't afford to fall, the whole market collapses. On December 18, the price of pigs showed that in some provinces, 1 kilogram of pigs fell sharply by 1.3 yuan, which is quite cruel.

The price of pork has also fallen, with prices in lower areas only reaching 14 or 15 yuan per pound.

What caused the sharp drop in pig prices? How much will the price of pork drop to per pound in the future? Let’s take a look at the market:

1. Pig prices are falling crazily

In December, the pig market has been on a downward trend, especially in recent days. It has fallen to "8" across the board, and some provinces are about to ask for 8 yuan without guarantee. It seems that everyone is pushing against the wall, and everyone is rejecting the price drop.

It is understood that on December 18, the national pig market plummeted, with 6 provinces experiencing a sharp drop of more than 1 yuan per catty, among which:

The price of pigs per catty in Henan Province plummeted 1.3 yuan, down to 8.2-8.5 yuan/jin; Jiangsu fell 1.15 yuan, down to 8.3-9.1 yuan/jin; Anhui fell 1 yuan, 8.3-9.0 yuan/jin; Shanxi fell 1.20 yuan, 8.1-8.7 yuan/jin ; Heilongjiang fell by 1 yuan, 8.2-8.9 yuan/jin; Shaanxi fell by 1 yuan, 8.0-8.8 yuan/jin, and there is a trend of falling below 8 yuan immediately.

Except for the following provinces, other provinces fell by 0.3-0.85 yuan. The national pig price fell by an average of 0.69 yuan/jin. The national live pig quotation dropped to 8.75 yuan/jin, a single-day decrease of 7.3%.

The price of pigs has fallen sharply. What is the reason? At present, there are different opinions in the market, and there is no consensus.

But here, through observation and understanding of the market, it is believed that there are four main reasons for the sharp decline in pig prices:

1. The selling and stampede of large pig companies.

At present, there are only a few days until the end of the month and less than 5 weeks until the Spring Festival. The time window for pig raising entities to be slaughtered before the Spring Festival has been shortened. In order to complete the 2022 targets, some large pig companies can only accelerate the slaughter. All Pig raising entities are also worried about poor pig prices after the Spring Festival, and are rushing to sell them. This, coupled with the flow of secondary fattening pigs to the market, has resulted in an obvious oversupply in a short period of time, causing pig prices to plummet.

2. Consumption is lower than expected.

Affected by multiple factors, the peak season for pork consumption is not strong and demand is insufficient.

From the perspective of the peak consumption season every year, due to the mask issue, the income of some residents has shrunk, resulting in pork consumption being lower than in previous years; from the perspective of "southern bacon, northern New Year pig", the current price of pork is still high, only Bacon consumption has dropped by about 30% compared with normal years, and annual pig consumption is also lower than in previous years.

3. People in the market are fragile and sensitive.

Currently, the time for slaughtering pigs is tight, the tasks are heavy, and the market is constantly falling. The breeding entities are no longer reserved and dare not be reserved. The market has appeared, you sell and I sell, and there is a short-term stampede effect. .

4. News about the release of reserved pork.

Recently, a spokesman for the National Development and Reform Commission stated that as the New Year's Day and the Spring Festival are approaching, in order to ensure the stability of the prices of people's livelihood commodities, the reserve pork will still be released in a timely manner and the investment will be increased during important times such as the "Two Festivals".

This news also puts some pressure on the market price of pigs.

From a direction perspective, despite the recent sharp decline, there are many market logics, but after this wave of accelerated decline, there is still a probability that pig prices will rise before the Spring Festival.

Due to the sharp drop in pig prices, the price of pork on the market has also dropped significantly. According to some netizens, the price of pork in some areas has dropped to 14 or 5 yuan per pound. Suileng, Heilongjiang has dropped in recent days. The price of pork has also dropped, with another price drop of 2 or 3 yuan in just a few days. The current mainstream price in the market is 15-16 yuan/jin, pork ribs 23 yuan/jin, and pork belly 14.5 yuan/jin.

I don’t know how low the pork supply is at your place now?

2. Corn weakens again

Recently, the corn market has also shown an obvious trend of fluctuation and weakness, with rises and falls, and shocks and falls.

The latest market shows that the market is mixed. While many corn prices in Shandong have fallen, many corn companies in the three provinces and one region of Northeast China have raised their purchase prices.

Among them: COFCO Jilin Yushu fell 0.5 points, with third-grade corn at 1.365 yuan/jin; Xintianlong Industrial rose 0.5 points, with a quotation of 1.405 yuan/jin; Jilin fuel ethanol rose 1.5 points, at 1.400 yuan/jin; Inner Mongolia Zhalantun Fufeng increased by 1 point, with third-grade 14 moisture content at 1.365 yuan/jin and 30 moisture content at 1.081 yuan/jin.

Maize enterprises in Shandong Province mainly fell today: Yishui Qingyuan fell by 0.5 points, with a quoted price of 1.495 yuan/jin; Pingyuan Fuyang fell by 0.5 points, with a quoted price of 1.475 yuan/jin; Yishui Luzhou fell by 0.5 points , 1.505 yuan/jin; Yishui Dadi fell by 0.5 points, quoted at 1.495 yuan/jin; Dongping Xiangrui fell by 0.5 points, quoted at 1.455 yuan/jin; Xianglong Industrial fell by 1 point, quoted at 1.51 yuan/jin.

The corn market is relatively weak, which is more in line with the market rules, because according to past conditions, the corn market in December will not trend well. The main reasons are:

First, December is the annual sales month. During the peak period of corn, selling pressure is strong, which leads some grain merchants to buy at lower prices, making it difficult for prices to rise.

Second, funds are tight in December. From the perspective of farmers, year-end consumption is the largest consumption of the year. Household heating, medical treatment, and seasonal consumption are relatively high. In addition, it is also the last time to repay loans. They all need to sell grain to cash out.

Third, traders’ profit margins are uncertain. Affected by the lessons learned by traders in losing money when collecting grain in 2021, mainstream prices in North China and Shandong have reached as high as 1.45-1.55 yuan/jin, and some traders no longer dare to After purchasing goods, I am worried about losing money, so I become more and more cautious in purchasing.

From the analysis of the market outlook, it is expected that the market will improve in January. However, since the current price of corn is not low, many farmers who are reluctant to sell have postponed their grain sales until after the Spring Festival. It seems that in March and April after the Spring Festival, the corn market will usher in a new round of grain sales peak, and there is still great uncertainty in grain prices.

3. There is no suspense about the sharp drop in oil prices

Nowadays, more and more families own cars, so changes in oil prices also affect thousands of households. In the first half of this year, oil prices dropped sharply. It has risen, and even 92-proof gasoline has exceeded 9 yuan per liter in some places. However, starting from the second half of the year, oil prices began to fluctuate and fall back. Taking 92-proof gasoline as an example, it has now dropped to less than 8 yuan per liter in most areas.

However, there is good news from the market. According to the latest oil price statistics, the next round of oil price adjustment will be at 24:00 on December 19. The oil price is currently expected to be reduced by 460 yuan/ton, which is a discount. It is expected to fall by 0.36 yuan/liter to 0.43 yuan/liter. At present, there is no suspense about the oil price falling by 80 cents in December alone.

Based on this drop, if you add a 60-liter tank of gasoline next Tuesday morning, you may save 21.6-25.8 yuan. This drop is still good.

At present, taking No. 92 gasoline as an example, the mainstream quotation in various places is between 7.9-8.0 yuan, which may drop to around 7.5-7.6 yuan/liter by then.

Finally, let me inform you of the latest agricultural product monitoring data. According to the latest monitoring data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market is 30.13 yuan/kg, beef 78.27 yuan/kg, and mutton 68.35 yuan. /kg, eggs 12.01 yuan/kg, white chicken 19.43 yuan/kg.

Dear friends, how much is the price of pork, eggs, beef and mutton in your place now? Everyone is welcome to share it so that netizens from all over the country can refer to it for comparison.