What is the impact of the decline of 20 14 crude oil on developed countries?

The landlord studied macroeconomics and dabbled in many studies of economic history and geopolitics. The landlord's point of view is not new, and basically many economists understand it. I'll just make a joke in simpler words.

The current plunge in oil prices, to put it bluntly, is an endless national strategic issue between the United States and Russia, and there is no possibility of easing it.

In recent years, Russia has made a lot of money by rising oil prices and invested a lot of oil and gas resources, but the cost is also high. After all, polar bears live in permafrost, and they have to build huge oil and gas pipelines to extract oil in permafrost. It is impossible to average 70 dollars a barrel of oil. However, Putin now owns 40% of the world's natural gas (excluding shale gas in the United States), which is more than Saudi Arabia's oil reserves and production. It suddenly announced that it would set up a BRICS bank with China, Brazil and India, settle oil in rubles and RMB, and settle oil in euros with the European Union. This is equivalent to abolishing the dollar's status as an international trade currency. Once successful, countries all over the world will sell a lot of US dollar reserves, US treasury bonds, US stocks and US real estate, so the United States is the virtue of Russia now. The dollar has depreciated by more than 50%, the basic interest rate is as high as 17%, all walks of life are depressed, and the United States is finished.

Given that Putin's rise as a great power is to kill the United States, Americans immediately became angry.

First, discuss with the EU: Russia is your energy bottleneck. Putin is a political madman, almost like Hitler. You let him develop, you are all unlucky. what do you think?

Germany and France think about it: Yes, after all, with Russia around, it is not practical to have a strong and unruly neighbor.

The United States promised France and Germany: I will kill the polar bear now, and we will work together in Together Brothers!

Franco-German: Boss, what are the benefits?

America: I joined hands with my brothers Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq to increase production and reduce oil prices. Russian oil exploration costs more than 70 dollars, and the government spends more than 95 dollars. When oil prices fall, Russia's fiscal deficit will occur. First, raise the price of oil and give the polar bear a hard knock. If you can't knock it out, the Saudi brothers can accept the long-term oil price of 60-70 dollars, and my shale oil can always supply you at this price. When the blood of the polar bear is drained, our brother will share his oil assets.

Franco-German: Yes, yes, the boss is smart. How do you want us to cooperate?

US: We will do things together in Ukraine, especially copying the hometown of Russian Black Sea Fleet. When polar bears definitely don't do it, we will escalate economic sanctions and then impose financial sanctions. As for the oil price, forget it.

France and Germany thought, if this plan is successful, we don't need to pay anything, and there will be benefits then. Oil prices have fallen, so we can save more money. Finally there is bear meat to eat. Cooperate with the boss.

The United States returned to Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq for meetings.

America: Brothers, polar bears are going to kill us. Your money is all dollar assets, not US Treasury bonds, not US company stocks, not US real estate. If the dollar collapses, you will all be poor. Boss, I must kill the polar bear now. What did you say?/Sorry?

Small oil producer: Boss, can you tell us the specific plan for our reference?

United States: We suddenly lowered the oil price from 100 to less than 40, and hit a hard blow. If the polar bear doesn't die, the cost of producing oil will not exceed 20 dollars, and the state will pay 60 yuan. Russia's oil production alone will cost 70 dollars, and a stick will not kill it. Let's bleed slowly. When the blood dried up and the bear died, everyone ate meat together. Russian oil and gas assets in Africa are divided into your shares, and you all have shares in the boss's oil company. Let's eat Russian oil and gas assets and share the profits.

Oil-producing boy: Boss, we lost a little bit in the early stage!

America: I can't have children, but I can't catch wolves. I lost more than you. Brothers, can the boss's aircraft carrier and army protect everyone's safety? Just give me more hard-earned money.

Oil-producing boy: well, bear meat will be scored then.

America: Boss, when have I ever mistreated my brother?

Therefore, with the Ukrainian crisis, there was a 20 14 year oil slump.

Russia's strength, coupled with Putin's strength, doomed the oil and financial trade war between the United States and Russia, which could not be fought in 1 or two years. In addition, the Silicon Valley of Americans releases a message from time to time: Big event! The battery technology of electric vehicles has made a great breakthrough. In the future, cars will not burn oil, but use electricity.

Therefore, if Russia does not sell the shares of state-owned oil companies and buy oil and gas resources in Africa, the United States and Russia will still fight, and the oil price will not exceed 70 US dollars. The last oil war between the United States and Russia began at 1985 and lasted for six years.

At this time, it depends.