Current economic market form in China

1. Forecast of main national economic indicators It is predicted that the growth rate of China's national economy will exceed the level of the previous year in 27, and the GDP growth rate will reach about 11.6%. If there are no major emergencies in the international economic and political environment and large-scale serious natural disasters and other major problems in China in 28, under the influence of macro-control measures, the GDP growth rate will fall back and can be maintained at a level close to 11%. Agricultural production will continue to maintain the good momentum in recent years in 27 and 28, and the growth rate of the added value of the primary industry will be 4.6% and 5% respectively; In 27, the growth rate of the added value of the secondary industry will exceed the previous two years, reaching 13.5%, and the industrial growth will slow down slightly in 28, but it will still reach a high level of 12.2%. In the past two years, the trend that the growth of heavy industry is faster than that of light industry will continue, and the gap between the growth rate of added value of light and heavy industries will remain at more than one percentage point; In 27 and 28, the growth rate of the tertiary industry will remain at about 1%, and the gap with the growth of the secondary industry is still obvious. In these two years, the growth rate of the added value of the tertiary industry will be 1.7% and 1.4%, respectively, which is relatively stable and slightly accelerated. The fixed assets investment of the whole society will continue to grow at a high speed in 27 and 28. The total current price in the two years will be about 13.8 trillion yuan and 17.137 billion yuan respectively. The real growth rate will be about 21.6% and 2.% respectively, and the nominal growth rate will be about 25.6% and 24.2% respectively. Compared with the previous two years, the growth of fixed assets investment in the whole society may slow down slightly in 28, but the investment growth rate is still significantly higher than the economic growth rate and consumption growth rate. It should still be an important task of macro-control. It is worth noting that the situation that investment growth has been significantly higher than GDP growth for many years has made the proportion of fixed assets investment in GDP of the whole society continue to rise in that year. It is estimated that the proportion of fixed assets investment in GDP of the whole society in China will exceed 56% in 27 and may further exceed 6% in 28. We must take effective measures to control this proportion to continue to rise. In 27, the price of pork was the fuse, and the consumer price rose unexpectedly by a large margin. Due to the influence of various price increase factors, the increase rate of consumer price and retail price of commodities in 27 and 28 will be significantly higher than that in previous years. It is predicted that the consumer price will rise by 4.5% and 4% respectively in 27 and 28. The retail price of commodities rose by 3.8% and 3.5% respectively. Controlling the excessive price increase is the most important task of macro-control in the past two years. Due to the steady and rapid macroeconomic growth and the people-oriented concept, the income of urban residents and rural residents will continue to grow rapidly. In 27 and 28, disposable income of urban households will increase by about 12.5% and 1.9% respectively, which is higher than the growth level of the previous two years. In 27, the CPC Central Committee and the State Council continued to take a series of important measures to improve farmers' income level, and the income of rural residents continued to grow. It is estimated that the growth rate of farmers' per capita net income in 27 and 28 will reach about 8.5% and 8.% respectively, and the growth level is further improved compared with the previous two years. We need to continue to work hard to change the situation that the growth rate of farmers' per capita net income will still be lower than that of urban residents' per capita disposable income. Since 25, a gratifying phenomenon in the macro-economic operation is that the growth rate of consumption has been significantly improved, and the growth of consumer demand has remained above 12%, showing a good situation of gradual acceleration of consumption growth. It is estimated that the retail sales of social consumer goods will reach 8.9 trillion yuan in 27 and 1.34 trillion yuan in 28. The real growth rate in 27 and 28 is about 12.2% and 12.3% respectively, and the nominal growth rate is about 16.5% and 16.2% respectively. Consumption continues to maintain a relatively stable growth, which has become one of the main factors driving macroeconomic growth. In recent years, China's foreign trade surplus and foreign exchange reserves have continued to grow at a high speed. This "double high" situation of high foreign trade growth and high surplus will continue in 27 and 28. It is predicted that the growth rates of imports and exports in 27 will reach about 2.3% and 25.1% respectively, and the annual foreign trade surplus will exceed the previous year, reaching a record level of about 26 billion US dollars. In 28, due to the appreciation of RMB and the adjustment of export tax rebate policy, the import rate will increase and the export growth rate will slow down, but the foreign trade surplus will continue to increase. The growth rates of imports and exports will be about 22.9% and 2.5% respectively, and the surplus may exceed 29 billion US dollars. Generally speaking, China's current macroeconomic situation is basically stable, the national economy will continue to maintain rapid growth in 27 and 28, and the GDP growth rate will remain at a high level. However, we must pay close attention to all kinds of complicated unfavorable factors emerging in the macro-economic operation in recent years, especially pay attention to the possible impact of the obvious increase in consumer prices on maintaining the stable operation of the economy, assess the situation, continue to make efforts to do a good job in macro-control, seize the favorable opportunity, actively resolve negative factors, and strive to maintain a moderately rapid, stable, coordinated and healthy growth of the national economy while deepening reform and strengthening economic restructuring. /economic/zhuanti/8jjxs/node _ 738967.htm/s28/5891/s266639/

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