Why did Shu lose?

First, it is not God’s will.

Some people say that with Liu Bei's benevolence, Zhuge's wisdom, and the ferocity of the Five Tigers, there are few people in the world who are not Liu Bei. But the last three families returned to Jin. The demise of the Shu Han Dynasty can only be caused by God's will.

I don’t think so!

Lao Tzu said: "Heaven and earth are unkind and regard all things as stupid dogs!" This means that heaven and earth are selfless. In the eyes of heaven and earth, all things are the same and there is no difference. Therefore, there is no so-called benevolence or unkindness in heaven and earth. In the eyes of heaven and earth, all things are like sacrifices for sacrifices and can be left to fend for themselves! In other words, heaven has no "meaning" at all.

After the three families returned to Jin, the people did not live and work in peace and contentment. The imperial court also did not treat the people well. Not long after, war broke out in the world again. After that, the Sui Dynasty was established, but when the Sui Dynasty passed to Emperor Yang of the Sui Dynasty, Emperor Yang of the Sui Dynasty was fatuous and tyrannical, and war broke out all over the world. This is also the story of the later Sui and Tang Dynasties. In other words, from the end of the Three Kingdoms to the establishment of the Tang Dynasty, the people did not live a happy life for a few days. To take a step back, if there really was God's will, wouldn't mountains and rivers be shattered, all living beings reduced to ashes, mountains of corpses and bones, and rivers of blood flowing? This! Is it God's will? ! ! ! !

In fact, people often have no choice but to say it is God’s will because they cannot find a reason. But everything happens for a reason. As the song says: Who decides the rise and fall? Is there no basis for prosperity and decline?

Second, enter the Shuxi River.

Yizhou is a dangerous fortress, with thousands of miles of fertile fields and a land of abundance, which is why Gaozu became an emperor. Liu Zhang is weak, Zhang Lu is in the north, the people are rich and the country is rich but they don’t know how to save money, and the wise people think of a wise king. ------Quotes from "Longzhong Dui"

Maybe people who have watched Longzhong Dui will admire Zhuge Liang's foresight, but have you seen the flaws in this strategy? The flaw is in Yizhou!

It is true that Yizhou is a dangerous place with thousands of miles of fertile fields and a land of abundance! But have you ever thought about it, Yizhou is quite backward economically and culturally! There are no big cities, not even decent towns! Anyone who knows a little bit about military affairs understands that war! A strong economy is needed to back it up. But Yizhou, economically speaking, can be said to be extremely backward! This led to the fact that in the later stages of Zhuge Liang's Northern Expedition, Yizhou's economy relied heavily on Mianzhu, and the export of silk and satin could barely sustain itself. Secondly, let’s talk about agriculture. Yizhou is thousands of miles away from fertile land. It is located in the south, has more rain, and has relatively developed agriculture, but it is far behind compared to the land of plenty like Jiangnan. Originally, the agricultural output of this place could be said to have provided enough food and clothing for the people, but if it had to supply long-term marches and wars, it would be obviously lacking. You must know that several of the seven expeditions to Qishan ended in failure due to lack of food and grass. Since Zhuge invented the wooden cow and the flowing horse, why was there a shortage of food and grass? It's probably because it's not that there's no time to get lucky, but that there's no luck left! Secondly, the population here is sparse! Where do the soldiers come from? Come among the common people! If the people are small, the soldiers will be small. How can we win without soldiers?

Then you will ask, "This is how Gaozu became an emperor." Is this true? How could Liu Bang dominate the world if this place is not good? How many years did Liu Bang enter? The Chu-Han struggle for hegemony ended in less than eight years in total, and Liu Bang led the army in Xishu for less than three years (of course the land will still be his after he comes out). Once I left Shu, I stayed there for decades! (Of course, they also came out to capture Jingzhou, which will be discussed below.) Yizhou has high mountains and dangerous terrain, making it easy to defend but difficult to attack. If you want to recharge your batteries, rest for the time being. A great place indeed. If you want to stay here permanently and cannot leave, I am afraid that the problems mentioned above will occur, and in the end, you will be trapped there!

You may say: According to you, Zhuge Liang is a fool? Did he have a bad idea? Are you the only one smart? Are you smarter than him?

No, Zhuge Liang was not wrong! Let's take a look at Longzhong's response to "protecting Qi, Jing, and Yi". Zhuge Liang never thought of conquering the world with Yizhou alone. Besides, judging from the situation at the time, Jingzhou and Yizhou were Liu Bei's last choices.

The reason why I wrote the above paragraph is mainly to explain to you why Zhuge Liang failed to achieve even an inch of success during his seven subsequent expeditions out of Qishan! This is because when only Yizhou was controlled, the failure of the Northern Expedition was not accidental, but inevitable.

In fact, Zhuge Liang also understood this truth. The reason why he carried out the seven Northern Expeditions was not to unify the world. It was just a strategy of using offense as defense! Of course, if you can hunt rabbits and make money in vain, that would be better, but if your success depends on the enemy's negligence, then you can only leave it to fate!

Third, lose troops and generals.

In fact, within a period of time, Liu Bei was very close to his goal of unifying the world. After Liu Bei captured Jingzhou and Yizhou, he had completed the policy of "protecting Jingzhou and Yizhou" planned by Zhuge Liang for Liu Bei. The wealth and vastness of Jingzhou also made up for the shortcomings of Yizhou in many aspects. At this time, the Shu Army Group already occupied one-third of the world (actually more, the territory was already larger than Soochow at that time, if you don't believe it, look at the map). If you use this posture to recharge your energy, you will be able to strengthen your troops. Look for good opportunities to send troops northward in the coming days. It was judged that the north, or even the unification of the world, might not be impossible, but at this critical moment, something went wrong! !

In fact, Liu Bei was the first one to make a mistake! ! Liu Bei knew the personality of his second brother very well. He should understand that Guan Yu had the tendency to underestimate the enemy and be arrogant. Guan Yu should never be sent to guard the entire Jingzhou (Jingzhou is very big...), and he should not be appointed as the top commander of the place (Jingzhou Mu, who is bigger than the provincial governor and commander of the provincial military region) many). Of course, Guan Yu still had some tricks up his sleeve, and he was Liu Bei's military advisor back then, but at that time there were basically just the three of them. But Guan Yu is a very emotional person, and he can easily be carried away by emotions such as arrogance and pride. Liu Bei might have expected this, so he sent some very good counselors to Guan Yu. But Liu Bei didn't want to think about it. When Guan Yu's temper really got worse, would he listen to those whose status, reputation, and military achievements were far less than his own?

The second mistake was of course caused by Guan Yu. Guan Yu was sometimes arrogant, everyone knew this. But we often say enough is enough, Guan Yu's arrogance has gone too far this time! When he attacked Fancheng, he had clearly received news that Sun Quan and Cao Cao were uniting to attack him from behind. Logically speaking, you should withdraw your troops immediately at this time. On the one hand, you should return to the city, step up defense, and fortify the city to wait. On the other hand, Kuai Ma surrendered and notified Liu Bei for backup. But what about Guan Yu? Unmoved, he continued to attack Fancheng. He calculated by himself, captured Fancheng, and then turned back to deal with Sun Quan. Alas, this idea has reached the extreme of arrogance! ! Later, when Cao Ren's troops in Fancheng learned that Soochow was coming to help, their morale was greatly boosted and they fought to the death! Guan Yu failed to attack Fancheng for a long time and was attacked from behind by the Wu army who had rushed over. This led to the loss of Jingzhou and the defeat of Maicheng. Until he was killed by Lu Meng. Is this carelessness and loss of Jingzhou? This is an arrogant loss of Jingzhou. In fact, Guan Yu's death was entirely his own fault and had no fault with others. As a general, you are arrogant and have no "enemy" in your eyes. This is a big taboo!

At this point, the Liu Bei Group has lost its famous generals and Jingzhou. Liu Bei has deviated from the course on the road to unifying the world, but it is not over yet.

When Liu Bei heard the news of Guan Yu's death, he mobilized all his troops, ignored Zhuge's advice, and went his own way with Zhang Fei to conquer Soochow. This led to the death of Zhang Fei, the defeat of Yiling, and the burning. The company camp is eight hundred miles away!

According to Luo Guanzhong's writing, Liu Bei's attack on Wu was entirely to avenge Guan Yu. I think otherwise. On the one hand, Liu Bei is indeed a person who values ????loyalty and wants to avenge his brother. That's true. But on the other hand, he understood the importance of Jingzhou to him and was eager to take it back. But Liu Bei was also blinded by hatred and took advantage of the opportunity (as for what opportunity, I will talk about it later).

In the end, the Shu Kingdom lost most of its main force in this battle, including Zhang Fei, and most importantly, indirectly losing Liu Bei! Therefore, the final defeat of Shu has been established from here on! After this battle, the demise of Shu was only a matter of time. Maybe you don't agree, but last time I analyzed that Zhuge Liang's Northern Expedition was unlikely to succeed. In addition, if Jingzhou is lost, the capital to compete for the world will be lost. If you have ever played chess, you will know that if you make one wrong move, you will lose the whole game. Maybe you made the wrong move this time and it is impossible to lose in the next move. Maybe you are still many steps away from your final failure, but from then on, your ending has been decided!

Fourth, missed opportunities.

(The following are my personal opinions)

Maybe you will think that Liu Bei has never had a good opportunity to dominate the world. Let me tell you, he has, and the chance is great!

That’s after Guan Yu’s back chop!

You may be surprised. You are right. Yes, there is a saying that crises are also opportunities! Listen to me tell you!

Just imagine, at that time the Shu army had just lost Guan Yu, and Soochow Wu and Northern Wei were in an alliance. At this time, Cao Jun was most comfortable. On the one hand, they don't have to worry about Liu Bei. Liu Bei's army has been defeated. Even if he wants to avenge Guan Yu, Guan Yu was killed by Sun Quan's people. It has nothing to do with them and cannot be blamed on them. Secondly, there is no need to worry about Soochow. On the one hand, they are still in an alliance. On the other hand, it is too late to defend Liu Bei. How can they attack Wei? I dare say that that time was the time when the Northern Wei Dynasty was the most careless and unprepared in the entire history of the Three Kingdoms! Assuming that at this time, Liu Bei can put aside his old suspicions and find someone to unite with Soochow again. On the one hand, Soochow has taken back the Jingzhou they want, and on the other hand, seeing the benefits, they will definitely help Liu Bei to unite with Wu to fight against Cao. If this can be done, Cao Jun will definitely be caught off guard. If he is lucky, the world can be settled in one battle.

Zhuge Liang stopped Liu Bei from attacking Wu over and over again, and kept reminding Liu Bei that Cao's thief has not been eliminated, Cao's thief has not been eliminated! Maybe, there has been such a plan. It's a pity that Liu Bei pointed the finger at the wrong target. ;

Destruction has become an irreversible fate...