How to evaluate Putin?

Vladimir Putin was born in Leningrad (now St. Petersburg) on 19521October 7. 1975 After graduating from the Law Department of Leningrad State University, he worked in the Foreign Intelligence Bureau of the National Security Council of the Soviet Union. He worked in the former GDR from 1985 to 1990. 1990 After returning to China, Putin successively served as foreign affairs assistant to the president of Leningrad University, adviser to the president of Leningrad Soviet, and chairman of St. Petersburg Foreign Liaison Committee. 1994 as the first deputy mayor of St. Petersburg. 1In August 1996, Putin began to serve as the deputy director of the Presidential Affairs Administration of the Russian Federation, in June as the deputy director of the President's Office and the director of the General Inspection Bureau of the President's Office, in July 1998 as the first deputy director of the President's Office, and in July of the same year as the director of the Russian Federal Security Service. 1In March 1999, he served as Secretary of the Russian Federal Security Council, and in August of the same year, he served as Prime Minister of the Russian Federal Government. 199965438+February 3 1 day, President Yeltsin announced his resignation as president and Putin became acting president. On March 26, 2000, Putin was elected President of the Russian Federation and was formally sworn in on May 7.

Mr. and Mrs. Putin climbed the Great Wall of China.

Putin is proficient in German and loves sports, especially sambo wrestling, judo and alpine skiing. In college, he won the Sambo wrestling champion, 1974 Leningrad judo champion, and was selected as an athlete candidate. He is tough and patient, and seldom shows his feelings.

1994 Putin led a delegation to visit China as the first deputy mayor of St. Petersburg. In July 2000 and February 2002, he paid state visits to China.

His wife, lyudmila, was born in Kaliningrad on the south bank of the Baltic Sea on 1957. She graduated from Kaliningrad No.8 Middle School and loved drama and sports activities. After graduating from high school, lyudmila was admitted to Kaliningrad Institute of Technology. He dropped out of school two years later because he didn't like engineering. In the early 1980s, he became a flight attendant of Kaliningrad Air Force. After that, he entered the Language Department of Leningrad State University to study Spanish. He used to be a university teacher in Bryansk, Russia. At the age of 24, he spent a short holiday in Leningrad, where he met Putin at a concert. 1On July 28th, 983, he married Putin on a boat in neva river. They have two daughters: Katja and Martha.

Roy Maidevijeff, a famous Russian scholar, pointed out several years ago that Putin is a useful person who appears in the needed position when needed. In recent years, Russia's economic recovery, political stability and improvement of its international image, especially the recent election of the State Duma, seem to confirm Maidevijeff's point of view from different angles.

Indeed, in the era of Yeltsin's administration, western parliamentary democracy forms such as running for president and parliamentarians were shattered by the political crisis in the East. Radical economic reform with only "shock" and no "cure" has created a very small number of oligarchs to get rich, while the people have fallen into a more impoverished situation; The foreign exchange that once fell to the west in an all-round way was NATO's eastward expansion and the European Union. In short, in the Yeltsin era, Russians did not go to the developed "West" and Europe, but to the backward "South" and Africa. 199965438+February 3 1 day, Yeltsin gave Putin "Russia in the most difficult period in hundreds of years" and told him to "take good care of it".

Putin lived up to Yeltsin's great trust. In just four years, he proved himself to be a "useful person" with his political achievements. Economically, Putin has implemented a series of reform policies to stabilize and promote economic development with the goal of "strengthening the country and enriching the people". Russia's economy and economic decline have not stopped, but have fully recovered since 2000. In this process, the Russian people have benefited the most. At present, the number of poor people has been greatly reduced, and the income of residents has increased greatly due to the increase of wages and pensions. Politically, with the goal of social unity and harmony, Putin straightened out various major political relations through a series of reform measures, such as the relationship between the president and the State Duma, the president and the prime minister, and the central and local governments, and completely changed the political situation characterized by "chaos" in Yeltsin's ruling era; Diplomatically, Putin aims at reviving Russia's status as a great power, adopts a multilateral and pragmatic foreign policy, and balances the relationship with great powers with Russia's interests. In a word, Putin has brought Russia into a new historical period, which some scholars call "Putin's resurgence". In this sense, the "United Russia" party won a great victory in the State Duma election, which can be said to be a generous return from the Russian people to Putin. Not only that, all kinds of public opinion in the world almost universally believe that Putin will be re-elected with absolute advantage in the presidential election to be held in March next year, and then he can get a generous gift from the Russian people.

Having written so much about Putin's "past", we want to explain Putin's "future", that is, what kind of internal and external policies Putin will adopt and what kind of risks he will have besides winning a total victory.

In fact, Putin's strategy of governing the country has been clearly revealed, and he should establish his absolute authority on the basis of expanding public support. Therefore, for a long period of time in the future, economically, Putin will continue to use the oligarchs who became rich in the process of social transformation through legal means, which will not only prevent these "new Russians" from trying to win the political arena, but also soothe the unbalanced psychology of many people living above and below the poverty line; Politically, Putin will adopt the so-called "controllable" democratic politics, that is, he will not talk about western democracy in form, but unite the central and local powerful figures through political parties such as "United Russia" and squeeze the space for the opposition party to survive and exert influence in a legal way. At least for now, other political parties, including Russia, are hard to pose a threat to Putin because of their unclear programs and weak organization. In diplomacy, Putin will further maneuver among great powers, and whoever is close to him will stay away from him, depending on whether it will help Russia improve its international status and gain economic benefits. Generally speaking, Putin will continue to strive to win the hearts of the people and make the country stronger in the future, and all domestic and foreign policies will be implemented with this as the central axis. Therefore, if the Duma election has any influence on Russia's political situation, it marks that Putin has completed the integration of various political forces, and also marks that Russia has begun to embark on the road of stability with stability and development as the main theme.

Undoubtedly, there are many uncertainties in Russia's political and economic development and international situation. The road ahead of Putin will definitely not be Ma Pingchuan, but there will be many thorny issues, such as the protracted Chechen issue and the terrorist incidents caused by it, the continuous population decline and the labor shortage caused by it, and the friction between Russia and other CIS countries. However, in the special historical period, these originally troublesome events may become an opportunity to shape Putin into a new "Peter the Great" and create extraordinary people in extraordinary times.

Russia's "News Times" recently published an article written by Andrei Piont Rovsky, director of the Russian Center for Strategic Studies, analyzing President Putin's conception of the state power structure and thinking that he wants to build a new structure of a powerful country. This article says:

We have lived in Putin's Second Republic for the second week. The First Republic was founded by berezovsky, Yeltsin, Voloshin and Yumashev in the autumn of 1999, when the crisis among domestic "elites" was very acute.

There are three factions in this Republic: the "families" dating each other and the oligarchs. It seems inevitable that they must stop the Luzhkov-primakov faction from taking power at all costs; Secondly, imagine a Pinochet-style figure who can lead Russia to the "liberal" of market reform with an iron fist; There is also a powerful department member from the Secret Service. It is these three factions that constitute the political structure of the First Republic of Putin. These factions were born with conflicts, which evolved into an open political crisis after three years of private struggle, and finally ended in the victory of powerful members.

Putin may intend to establish a new structure that can maintain the balance of elites. In any case, this is a completely different Republic from Putin when he was elected in February. Today, among the people around the president, people from powerful departments have played a decisive role, and they unconditionally supported the president on the Khodorkovsky incident.

The profound reason for the collision between Yeltsin's regime and Putin's First Republic is that Russia's ready-made economic system can neither guarantee a stable economic growth rate nor ensure Russia's take-off in the post-industrial society. In recent years, from 10 to 15, we have cultivated mutant species. The inherent characteristics of these species are the integration of money and political power, the use of power to commit crimes, and the prevalence of corruption. The main economic position is a large company that makes a fortune through property privatization, mainly raw material companies. The above mentioned are not only oligarchs who have obtained official positions because of their close ties with Yeltsin, but also bankers and former agents who stole state property, as well as commercial officials who benefited from privatized property. These people are closely related to the new regime. What matters is not the characters mentioned above, but the nature of the operating system. The downfall of berezovsky, Gusinski, Khodorkovsky or Chubais did not change anything of Russian feudal capitalist system.

Putin's ideas about the Second Republic are very clear. Is to "return the plundered wealth to the people"; Centralized management of state resources by bureaucrats; And a "mobilization economy" that can ensure the rapid development of Russian civilization and make it return to the ranks of powerful countries, and more ideally, restore its well-deserved superpower status.

Our authorities have successfully mastered the skill of staying on the stage for a long time. But they should still consider bourgeois democracy and publicly state their reasons for re-election every four years. People should be provided with a simple and inspiring idea, which can make the former keep in line with the authorities at least during the election.

AFP: Yukos incident maps Russian economic strategy.

Agence France-Presse reported on the 9th that some analysts pointed out that the power struggle that led to the stepping down of the president of Yukos Oil Company was not only the result of the Kremlin political struggle, but a major event related to the economic strategy and whether Russia could be independent in energy policy. They believe that Russia's crackdown on Yukos, the country's largest oil company, is not only related to political speculation before the election, but also closely related to taxation, controlling oil pipelines and ensuring that private companies are not controlled by the United States.

Professor Jacques sapir, who teaches at the prestigious Paris Institute for Advanced Social Studies, said: "Russian President Vladimir Putin's speech on major policies in the Duma (May 16) focused on economic development. His goal is to double the gross domestic product in 10. But from his point of view, if Russia cannot benefit from raw materials-oil, natural gas, non-ferrous metals and minerals-this ambitious goal cannot be achieved. " For Russia, if the authorities want to invest heavily in public service facilities and infrastructure, then hydrocarbons are the key, because hydrocarbons account for 40% of exports and 25% of taxes. Some analysts say that Khodorkovsky is a stumbling block to this policy.

Thomas Gaumard, a researcher at the French Institute of International Relations, said: "A fundamental problem still exists: the state monopolizes oil pipelines through the Russian oil pipeline transportation company." "One of Khodorkovsky's plans is to build his own transportation network, which is not controlled by the state." Sapir said: "I think the Russian president will gradually regain control of the energy industry. If foreign investment does not involve hydrocarbons, then there is no need to worry about foreign investment. But in the energy industry, this is a fact, and foreign investors can only act in the way that the authorities hope. "

Japan's Asahi Shimbun published an editorial entitled "Feast in St. Petersburg" today, analyzing the diplomatic challenges and opportunities faced by Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Heads of state from more than 40 most important countries in the world gathered in St. Petersburg on Friday to celebrate the city's 300th birthday. This celebration is also the most important diplomatic activity of Russia since the 50th anniversary of the last victory over Germany in World War II.

After attending the celebrations in St. Petersburg, Putin will go to Evian, France on June 1 -3 to attend the G-8 summit, because Russia has become a full member of this group. Maybe Russia just wants to celebrate Russia's accession to the G-8 with a grand celebration in St. Petersburg.

St. Petersburg was the capital of Russia during the tsarist Russia, and it was also an important window to the west at that time. President Putin was born here. Russian foreign policy has changed several times since Putin took office as Russian president for more than three years. When Putin took office, he focused his diplomacy on preventing the United States from dominating the world, which was also the consistent proposition of his predecessor Yeltsin.

However, the "911"terrorist attack prompted Putin to make a drastic change in his diplomatic line. The international environment requires Russia, which is troubled by Chechen rebels, to expand its cooperation with the United States. Therefore, Russia agreed that the US military should be stationed in several former Soviet countries in Central Asia, and its attitude towards the development of oil resources in the Caspian Sea changed from confrontation to cooperation.

Then there was the Iraq war. Moscow decided to confront Washington this time. Russia, France and Germany joined forces to strongly oppose the military actions of the United States and Britain to overthrow Saddam Hussein's regime. On the issue of Iraq war, Russia is willing to form an alliance with France and Germany. On the one hand, it is out of the same oil interests, and another important factor is that Russia recognizes France and Russia as axis countries of the European Union.

With the change of the world situation, Putin seems to have changed his foreign policy without hesitation, which shows that he is very clear about what is in Russia's best interest. In May's State of the Union address, Putin once again emphasized his "great power" policy. He acknowledged that Russia's economic strength, military strength and international influence have declined since the end of the Cold War, but he vowed to rebuild the Russian economy and strive to create a favorable international environment for achieving this goal. In fact, Russia has successfully used the delicate US-Russian relations to join the G8 and made remarkable progress on the road to joining the World Trade Organization.

In his State of the Union address, Putin emphasized the necessity of maintaining close relations with European countries. He thinks it is necessary to expand and strengthen political and economic relations with European neighbors.

Putin also faces many diplomatic challenges, including how to mediate differences within the UN Security Council and how to exert his influence when the G8 makes decisions. In fact, Russia bears an important responsibility in international affairs. If it pursues its own national interests excessively, then it should not expect to gain the trust of the international community.

Japan has always regarded Russia as an enemy competing with itself for the northern territory. However, with the development of the situation, I'm afraid Japan should change its view and regard Russia as its colleague in the G8.

Dividing line —————————————————————————————————————————————————————.

My point is that Yeltsin was right to hand over the leadership position to Putin. Putin went from obscurity to becoming an iron-blooded tracker shouldering the great ship of fighting nation. He saved Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union. What about his tough diplomatic style (Clem was signed back to Russia in minutes, not giving everyone time to react)? . ), what about European and American sanctions? Russia has long been self-sufficient in natural resources. Some countries have been cut off by Russian natural gas pipelines, as if they were dead. Putin is versatile and responsible, but it is a bit sad to worship him blindly. The rule of the country should not rely on the worship of the people. Of course, the government led by Putin is still very capable. It is said that Russia's economy is really depressed and turbulent during this period. The ruble has finally stabilized at around 10, and prices have risen a lot, but it is still impossible for the economy to collapse in a short time.