Objectively speaking, what is the possibility of Trump going to jail?

Objectively speaking, the possibility of Trump being arrested and imprisoned in the United States is almost zero. We need to know what is the root of Trump's series of troubles from taking office to leaving office? To put it bluntly, this is just a trick played by the US Democratic Party and the two parties when they compete for the presidency.

Since Trump announced his participation in the 2024 US presidential election, it should be said that it has caused panic in Biden's government, because Trump's current support rate in the United States is very high, and once he stands for election, the possibility of winning is very high. Biden's re-election plan may be ruined. So they will use any possible means to attack Trump. Its purpose is not to send Trump to prison. The main way is to discredit Trump's reputation, affect his voter support rate, and finally let him lose the 2024 presidential election.

The Democratic Party used three means to attract Trump:

First, the TongRumen incident. This point has been investigated at the beginning of Trump's appointment, and basically implemented three-quarters of Trump's political time. The final result of the investigation is that there is no evidence. Of course, this period was accompanied by an investigation into the business and economic problems of the Trump family.

Second, the possession of confidential documents. After Trump left office, the FBI raided the Hu Hai Manor where he lived, taking away a lot of documents. I asked Trump to take a large number of confidential documents home after leaving office. However, this matter continues to ferment, and more and more retired American politicians are involved, including former presidents Obama and Clinton. Because this kind of behavior is not unique to Trump, it involves too much, and finally it is unknown.

Third, the Trump hush money incident. In fact, this matter is neither big nor small. Things have been going on for many years and belong to Trump's personal thinking. But in the end, it mainly depends on how the federal court decides this matter. The advantage is that this is Trump's personal scandal and it is easier to operate. So democracy often makes more fuss about it.

But to really send Trump to prison through this incident, the Biden administration still needs to pay attention to two aspects:

The attitude of Trump supporters. There is no doubt that Trump has a high reputation among the American people. If too many outrageous charges are listed, it will inevitably lead to strong opposition from Trump supporters, and similar incidents on Capitol Hill may happen again. This will throw the United States into chaos again. Making a mountain out of a molehill is not good for you.

The impact on your future. The trial of Trump set a precedent for prosecuting the outgoing president for the first time since the founding of the United States. If he is really sent to prison again, it will go down in history. But such a thing is a double-edged sword. If Biden's government really does this, it is likely to become an example for his successor, and he himself may be liquidated by his competitors in the future because he leaves office. Considering the future of yourself and other authorities, it's better not to start.

Therefore, the best result of this incident is that Trump voluntarily pleaded guilty and withdrew from the 2024 presidential election, which may end here. But it is difficult to estimate according to Trump's personality. Before the end of the 2024 general election, infighting is inevitable.

As can be seen from the Trump incident, both American democratic parties have tried their best to run for the presidency. Essentially, they are fighting for each other's power and opportunities. In fact, at the national political level, there is no so-called democracy and freedom advertised by the United States itself. It's just that the prosecution of Trump now raises this way of attacking each other to a new height.