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When will the new coronavirus infection epidemic in Beijing end?

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When will the COVID-19 epidemic in Beijing end?

Dr. Liu Yequan

Doctor of Medicine, University of Edinburgh, UK

In the field of epidemics, there are many mathematical models to judge the trend of a certain infectious disease. These models have different advantages and disadvantages, but they all have the same disadvantage: idealizing all variables. In the real world, this idealized model is often inaccurate. Neil Ferguson, one of the most influential scientists in the UK and an epidemiologist at Imperial College London who directly contributed to the lockdown of the UK, was an example of failure in predicting the Wuhan epidemic in the early stages of the epidemic. It is estimated that the number of confirmed cases in Wuhan is between 2,000 and 20,000. Of course, the lack of first-hand data is also a failure factor.

Instead of using mathematical models to derive, it is better to use original empirical estimates. After experiencing the SARS and Wuhan epidemics, we will find the Chinese characteristics of the development of the epidemic, that is, strong government intervention can fundamentally change the direction of the epidemic. Regarding the outbreak in Xinfadi, Beijing, let’s take a look at the latest trend chart first:

As you can see from the chart above, the first case, that is, the case with the surname Tang in Xicheng District, Beijing, was in June The person who was diagnosed on the 11th was called a whistleblower by some media, but this is not actually the case. It was not until June 12, when two employees of the Meat Research Institute were diagnosed, that the source of the epidemic was actually identified as Xinfa. On June 13 and 14, the daily number of confirmed cases reached its peak (36 cases).

Due to the government’s effective intervention, the epidemic trend began to decline on June 15, and currently there are more than 20 new confirmed cases every day. What can be expected is that a downward channel has been formed. In another week, the number of new confirmed cases every day is estimated to be in single digits, close to 0, possibly by the end of June.

Wu Zunyou, an expert from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, recently stated that the epidemic in Beijing has been brought under control, and this judgment is reliable.

Edited on 2020-06-20 · Copyright belongs to the author

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