Why is Chongqing the most potential city for real estate investment?

In addition to the factors determined by the development stage of urbanization, Chongqing's own advantages make it very likely that the property market will grow rapidly in the second half of urbanization. Let's take stock of the unique advantages of Chongqing:

A. "Chongqing's belly hides gold"-Chongqing's ability to absorb gold is only listed as a first-tier city, and its growth rate is amazing.

What changes have taken place in China's urban competition since the beginning of the new century? Which cities' competitiveness continues to rise and which cities are declining? Why is Chongqing's competitive advantage outstanding? Let's analyze it by comparing the changes in the amount of funds in various cities:

According to the economic data of the first half of 20 16, Beijing, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Chongqing, Chengdu and Hangzhou have entered the "3 trillion clubs" and become the eight most powerful cities in China (data of Taiwan Province Province is temporarily lacking).

The 3 trillion mentioned here refers to the "balance of local and foreign currency deposits of financial institutions" and can also refer to the "total amount of funds" of a city. In our analysis system, the importance of this indicator far exceeds any indicator including GDP. Because the total amount of funds is not only the result of a city's social and economic development, but also the basis for future development. Therefore, it not only represents strength, but also represents potential. As for GDP and other indicators, it is difficult to objectively reflect the competitiveness of a city due to the interference of performance evaluation factors. ?

By observing the capital changes of major cities in China in the past 16 years, we can see that after entering the 2 1 century, Chongqing and Chengdu have risen together, and the capital has increased by 16 times. Of all the cities in China, only Shenzhen has a higher capital increase than Chengdu, so it is no exaggeration to say that Chongqing is a treasure trove of "Chongqing has gold in its belly". The amount of funds also determines the gold content of a city, which is often reflected in the housing price of a city. At present, Shenzhen's housing price ranks second in the world, while Chengdu and Chongqing's housing price ranks third in China. The attribute of value depression is obvious! ?

With the macro-fiscal policy and monetary policy relatively unchanged, the most important determinant of a city's housing price is the change of population and capital. Through the comparison of the previous data, we can find that Chongqing's capital advantage is very prominent in all cities in China, with the total capital ranking second after Guangzhou, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, and only behind Guangzhou in the second echelon.

B. The population growth is in the top three in China, and its attraction to the population determines that the future housing price increase in Chongqing can be expected.

Although policy stimulus can change the short-term market structure, the long-term trend of the property market still depends on the fundamentals of supply and demand, which ultimately reflects economic development and urban attractiveness. The change of resident population is an extremely important index to analyze the attractiveness of cities and the future trend of housing prices.

According to the data, the net increase of resident population in cities since 10 is higher in Chongqing than in Nanjing, Hangzhou and Dongguan (the fourth column of the chart). Judging from the increase ratio of resident population in cities since 10 (the fifth column of the chart), the ratio of 2 1.06% in Chongqing is close to the level of first-tier cities, higher than that in Dongguan, Chengdu, Wuhan, Hangzhou and Nanjing.

Many people will have the impression that the population of Chongqing has been decreasing, which is completely different from the table. The reason for this misunderstanding is that Chongqing is a typical urban-rural dual pattern area. It is not so much a city as a province, and the main city is equivalent to the provincial capital city. There is a net outflow of rural population, while the net inflow of population in the main urban area is relatively large, and the net inflow scale is very considerable. ?

If we only look at the past four years, the increase of permanent population in Chongqing (the main city) is higher than that in Shanghai and top-tier first-tier cities such as Suzhou, Hangzhou, Nanjing, Dongguan and Chengdu, which shows that Chongqing is very attractive to the population of the whole central and western regions. According to this growth rate, it can be judged that the net inflow of Chongqing population will show an obvious acceleration trend in the future, and the huge net inflow population will have a very amazing rigid demand for the Chongqing property market.

C. The relatively smallest urban area and gradually decreasing land supply will inevitably increase the tension of the future property market supply.

Chongqing's urban area is almost the smallest among major cities. Compared with Nanjing, the urban area of Chongqing is less than Nanjing 125 square kilometers, but the population of Chongqing is more than Nanjing 1 1000. With a small area and a large population, the average house price in Chongqing is only 30% of that in Nanjing (the average house price in Chongqing is 7 195 yuan/square meter. Note that the house price in Chongqing is only about 6000 yuan/square meter according to the interior area, while that in Nanjing is 19389 yuan/square meter)! ?

For a long time, people think that the important reason why Chongqing's housing prices can't go up is the huge land supply. In fact, one factor has been neglected, that is, since the establishment of 1997, Chongqing, which was originally lower in political status than Chengdu, suddenly became higher in status than Chengdu. As an ordinary prefecture-level city, the original city scale is obviously far from meeting the volume requirements of municipalities directly under the central government, and it is an inevitable choice for city managers to continuously increase the land supply in the main city. However, when the main urban area of Chongqing basically reaches the scale of "big city", this crazy land pushing process will inevitably end. In fact, the land supply in Chongqing has slowed down significantly this year.

Since the end of 20 15, both the land supply area and the transaction area are at a very low level. Since 20 16 years, the land supply area in Chongqing has plummeted, and the monthly land transaction area has basically remained at a historical low below 1 10,000 square meters. The transaction area of residential land in July was zero. According to the data of Chongqing Municipal Bureau of Land and Resources, in the first eight months of 20 16, the planned construction area of residential land supply in Chongqing decreased by 43% year-on-year, while the corresponding transaction area decreased by 62% year-on-year. The cliff-like decline in land supply will have a great impact on Chongqing's housing prices in the future, and housing prices are expected to get out of the previous stagnation.

D. Reasonable rental-to-sales ratio makes Chongqing's housing prices almost bubble-free, with high rental return rate and outstanding characteristics of safe assets.

According to international practice, the rent-to-sale ratio refers to the ratio of monthly rent to house price per square meter, which is an important indicator to measure the good operation of real estate in a region. The international standard is usually 1: 100 to 1: 200. Due to the differences in national conditions and other aspects, the rental-to-sale ratio in China is relatively healthy within 300. If the principal can be repaid in 25 years, the annual rental return is about 4%, which is higher than that of one-year time deposits and general wealth management products, regardless of the changes in house prices. In the era of global asset shortage, such rental return rate makes Chongqing's real estate an ideal investment target.

According to the house price and rent announced by each administrative district in Chongqing, the rent-to-sale ratio of each district is calculated. Yuzhong District has the highest average house price, which is 8 142 yuan/m2, followed by Jiangbei District, which is more than 8,000 yuan/m2, and Banan District has the lowest house price, which is 5,704 yuan/m2. Jiangbei District has the highest average rent, reaching 27.35 yuan. From the rent-to-sale ratio, all districts in the main city are between 1: 292 and 1: 387, and the rent-to-sale ratio of houses in Jiangbei District with the highest rent is 1: 292, which reflects that the housing prices in the core area of Chongqing are very healthy and reasonable. In the future, with the enhancement of capital agglomeration effect in the core area, it is an inevitable trend for housing rents to rise sharply.

Although the rent in Chongqing is not high, the rent-to-sale ratio of houses is the most reasonable among all sample cities. This rent-to-sale ratio and Chongqing's own advantages show that the city's real estate is not only bubble-free, but also a direct proof of low value.

E. Major national strategic hotspots meet, and the location advantage is extremely prominent?

Open the map of China, Chongqing is located in the hinterland of rooster. As the youngest municipality directly under the central government in China, Chongqing shoulders the heavy responsibility of promoting the development of the western region, and is also the economic center of the whole western region.

Chongqing is located at the node of major development strategies such as the "Belt and Road" and the Yangtze River Economic Belt, connecting the east with the west and connecting the north with the south. It is an important hub connecting and connecting several major strategies. From the perspective of strategic positioning, Chongqing is the only municipality directly under the central government in the central and western regions, the only national central city in the central and western regions (five in China), the central hub in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River and an important strategic support for the development and opening up of the western region. From the perspective of geographical advantages, Chongqing is at the intersection of the Silk Road Economic Belt and the Yangtze River Economic Belt, and it is also the strategic hinterland of the Maritime Silk Road. At present, the international trade channel of Chongqing-Chongqing New Europe International Railway has been opened, and it is also a national first-class temporary opening railway port.

What is more gratifying is that Chongqing has become the third China after Suzhou Zhongxin Industrial Park and Tianjin Binhai New Area Zhongxin Eco-city. On 2015165438+17 October, the two governments issued the framework agreement of "Sino-Singapore (Chongqing) Strategic Interconnection Demonstration Project", confirming that both sides will take Chongqing as the operation center. Aviation and Singapore Asia News Network said in the report.

According to past experience, such a major national strategy will definitely boost the appreciation of regional real estate value. The previous establishment of Suzhou Industrial Park, Tianjin Sino-Singapore Eco-city, Shanghai Free Trade Zone and Shenzhen Qianhai Free Trade Zone greatly boosted local housing prices. The first benefit will be the Chaotianmen, Jiangbei Kou and Nan 'an marble CBD areas across the two rivers in Chongqing. The real estate in this area will have considerable room for value growth. Secondly, as the core area of the project, Liangjiang New Area, including Jiangbei District, Yubei District and Beibei District, will also become a hot spot for real estate and industrial investment.

F meet the conditions of high-quality industrial upgrading, the manufacturing industry is world-class, and the tertiary industry has high gold content.

As an old industrial city, Chongqing has no advantage in industrial structure, and the proportion of tertiary industry is relatively low (50%), but its industrial structure is gradually being optimized. Since the beginning of the 20th century, the secondary industry has developed rapidly and formed a prominent manufacturing scale by introducing domestic and foreign capital. The two pillar industries, electronic information and automobile manufacturing, are making full efforts, and the strategic emerging industries represented by notebooks are rising rapidly. The output of notebook computers accounts for one-third of the world, which is a veritable world-class level.

Financial insurance is outstanding in the tertiary industry. As early as 2009, the State Council issued the the State Council Document No.3, emphasizing the need to build Chongqing into a financial center in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River. In 20 13, Chongqing and Shanghai became one of the "double pilot cities" for retail export and cross-border payment in cross-border electronic commerce. At present, Chongqing has launched cross-border RMB business across Asia, Africa, Europe, the United States and Australia. In 20 14, the total amount of cross-border RMB settlement in Chongqing reached1604.5 billion yuan, and there were 803 cross-border settlement enterprises in Chongqing.

Chongqing's financial industry is also a highland open to the outside world in the upper and middle reaches of the Yangtze River. In particular, foreign-funded financial institutions have developed well. In 20 14, the total number of various foreign-funded financial institutions has reached 122, including 17 foreign-funded banks and representative offices, 39 foreign-funded microfinance companies and 49 foreign-funded equity enterprises, ranking first in the central and western regions.

Speaking of the highlights of Chongqing's financial industry, offshore financial settlement is the most familiar to the outside world. Offshore finance has brought all-round rights and interests to Chongqing. The most important effect of Chongqing's vigorous development of offshore settlement is to leave the processing trade volume and settlement amount settled in Europe, America, Singapore and Hong Kong in Asia before Chongqing's import and export. In 20 14, the scale of offshore finance has reached11900 million USD.

Singapore is the largest offshore financial center in Asia, and Chongqing will soon become an international offshore financial settlement center.

The high starting point of the financial industry makes Chongqing's tertiary industry full of "gold", and the developed financial industry will inevitably create a large number of high-paying people. As we all know, the number of high-paying people will have a direct impact on the housing prices of a city, such as San Diego in the United States, whose housing prices have been at the first-class level in the United States because of the large number of high-paying jobs.

It should be pointed out that "Chongqing's per capita wage" also has obvious dual characteristics, that is, developed finance, insurance and manufacturing make a considerable number of employees earn a lot of money, so it should be said that it is not much different from the developed coastal areas. However, because Chongqing is located in the west, the rural low-income population accounts for a relatively large proportion, which objectively lowers the average wage level in Chongqing. In the future, with the further optimization of industrial structure, it is believed that the overall per capita wage level in Chongqing will be greatly improved.

"One move fresh" can also "eat all over the sky". What is rare is that from the perspective of investing in real estate, Chongqing is simply an "all-round player", and its six potentials, such as capital, population, industry, location advantage, land supply and housing rent-to-sale ratio, are all quasi-first-class in China. With such comprehensive strength, there is no bubble in housing prices, and the layout of metropolitan area will become an inevitable choice for future real estate investment. It should be said that there is no doubt that Chongqing will be the city with the most investment potential in China. ?

Chongqing is a very beautiful city, and the beauty of Chongqing is the soul of this city. Chongqing has not only beautiful women, but also mountain cities, and of course Jialing River and Yangtze River. Where there are mountains and water, it has always been a good place to live. Some people say that Chongqing at night is very similar to Hong Kong. It was just talk before, and no one really took it seriously. But in the future, I'm afraid Chongqing's gold content and importance can really be on a par with Hong Kong.

In the first half of urbanization in China, the "crazy sonata" of the coastal property market was interpreted. In the coming second half of urbanization, Chongqing, as the city with the most investment potential and the most undervalued value in China, will surely join this symphony. Let's look forward to it!